Political data @GSG. Former academic, campaign staff. UMich PhD (go blue!) he/him/his. politics, surveys, stats, soccer, D&D, dogs. Tweets are my views only
Joined April 2010
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Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
99% of House districts moved against president's party this year -- biggest in modern history & clearly a step change, but part of a long term trend towards "universal swing" in House districts (2022 was a non-wave, but similar to 2010 at 84%).
Median district +14D, also a high
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
Job opportunity: NYT fellowship in Election Analytics, 2027.
A great early career opportunity for someone with a demonstrated interest in nonpartisan election data and analysis
job-boards.greenhouse.io/the…
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
Ticket splitters too. Even in bluenami TX Talarico ran 5ish points ahead of Hinojosa despite similar overall vote totals!
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
I do hope we can finally do away with the myth that swing voters don’t exist
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
As per @Thorongil16's suggestion, I added TX (note: it's only 12 counties that cover 63% of the vote) and it bucks the trend!
So far, Texas is the only state where our model indicates that persuasion explains more of Democrats net gain than turnout does!
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
We’ll know more as precinct-level data comes in, but the “turnout wave” — both in high Dem turnout and lower GOP turnout — appears to have hit much hard in Appalachia and the Deep South and hardly at all in the Northeast (or the West, but data still partial there).
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
The Latino electorate saw substantial churn: new voters coming in while others sat out. In GA & TX, roughly half of 2026 Latino voters hadn’t voted in 2022 and 2024; about 1 in 5 did not vote in either. On the flip side, 37% of Latino 2024 voters did not vote in 2026
This is a good read on the polls this year. Certainly seems that historic turnout is one reason polls underestimated Dems, but otherwise folks should be cautious about jumping to conclusions about polling methods until we’re done counting and (ideally) have complete vote history.
Did a little analysis of how the polls performed this year.
Polling estimates understated the Democratic margin by at least 2 points in 23 of 27 races for governor and U.S. Senate. The mean understatement across all 27 races was about 4 points.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/…
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Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
But polls did a good job of telling the story of the election. Polls consistently documented the electorate’s dark mood this year, including deep dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, even among some of his 2024 voters. And they consistently found a wide enthusiasm gap
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
Did a little analysis of how the polls performed this year.
Polling estimates understated the Democratic margin by at least 2 points in 23 of 27 races for governor and U.S. Senate. The mean understatement across all 27 races was about 4 points.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/…
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
Latino turnout growth was driven by young voters, and young women in particular in GA & TX (where we have voter-file updates). While Latino participation still trailed white, young Latinas flipped that turnout gap and voted at higher rates than young white women. That’s bonkers!
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
Per this analysis, Black & Latino voters in TX increased their share of the electorate over the prior presidential; that is not normal. (*Though AAPI had done it in ‘18.) Non-white voters cast ballots at ~90% the totals of 2024, to 84% for white voters.
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
To me, illustration of this is state trifectas. Democrats are projected to have 22 state trifectas, more than they have had in at least 36 years, and first lead in trifectas (+4) since the '10 GOP wave--which GOP used to gerrymander/consolidate in '14. It is the end of that era.
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Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
We’ve had three consecutive elections where a big takeaway is that we really need to be open to the range of things that can happen
We ‘re a bubble of very specific information consumption on here that a majority of people just don’t gaf about - nothing’s as rigid as we think!
I am so proud of the work we did at GSG this cycle to help elect Democrats up and down the ballot
This cycle, we competed and won in the races that decided control of Congress and statehouses across the country. We polled in nearly every Democratic Senate flip, 25 top House races, and for 18 new members of Congress, 10 governors, and 9 AG winners. 🗳️
Read the full rundown: globalstrategygroup.com/2026…
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
Give my colleague @williamjordann a follow. He’s been breaking down the election results, and has some great insights!
Alex Von Hagen-Jamar retweeted
The breadth of the demographic swing against the GOP this midterm is all the most striking because we saw a comparably consistent swing *to* the GOP only 4 years ago, in 2022.
Data from the fantastic newly released @APNORC Civic Health & Elections poll.
