CEO & CIO @DeFianceCapital Asia-based investment firm focusing on liquid assets spanning crypto and equities
Onchain
Joined April 2013
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Despite the Binance hack, I expect the recent US tech/AI equities underperformance to be a strong tailwind for crypto performance over the next 6 months.
Many crypto-natives that off-ramped previously will on-ramp again to reallocate money into the asset class that we are much more familiar with instead of being exit liquidity for all these erratic fast money in tradfi world.
We really need to do something about North Korea at this point for the sake of the industry.
Update: Stolen funds from the $6.3B Binance exploit and $388M Bitget exploit were commingled at the same address 45 minutes ago, after arriving via THORChain.
This indicates the same actor is likely behind both incidents.
The Bitget exploit was attributed to DPRK-linked TraiderTraitor, which had overlap with other previous exploits such as Kelp DAO.
Commingling address:
0x15104a9ce0f08a8f0075a0869ae80e795fe0feb7
Bitget exploit context: teapaw.org/zachxbt/status/2104528…
Arthur retweeted
No single laptop should ever have the ability to access billions of dollars of funds, customer or otherwise
We are not a serious industry
Binance's initial investigation suggests that the security incident may involve a compromised DevOps engineer’s laptop, which allowed an attacker to gain access to a service container and submit unauthorized withdrawal transactions. We have found no evidence of any wallet private key leak. We will share a detailed technical post-mortem once the investigation is complete and the facts are fully verified.
The estimated total impact sits at around $6.3B. We have worked with blockchain partners to freeze affected assets, with ~$3 billion frozen on-chain so far.
Binance will cover all losses from the SAFU fund and the company’s funds. User funds are safe. We will also publish an updated Proof of Reserves once the remediation is complete.
As an immediate precaution, Binance has:
- temporarily suspended deposits and withdrawals while security checks are completed;
- revoked the affected address authorisation;
- engaged law enforcement and blockchain intelligence partners to trace and recover funds.
Our teams are working around the clock to resolve this issue safely and thoroughly. We are working closely with our law enforcement partners to confirm the identity of these criminals and bring them to justice.
Please rely only on official Binance channels for updates. Please feel free to contact Binance Customer Support if you have any further questions.
binance.com/en/support/annou…
Yes
Doesn't even matter what happens to $HYPE price today.
Every.
Single.
Fund manager, retail investor, finance podcaster etc will be talking about it, trying it, looking into it after today.
Enormous career risk to not at least have an educated view on @HyperliquidX when your investors start calling you up tomorrow.
Irreversible mind share step function gain today.
Arthur retweeted
I still remember the day Paul Tudor Jones came out and called Bitcoin the fastest horse in the race.
It was May 2020. Bitcoin was at $9k. That moment changed everything for Bitcoin.
PTJ's public call forever eliminated the career risk for hedge funds to buy BTC.
Bitcoin went on to 10x over the next year.
Druck investing in trade xyz is that moment for all of onchain capital markets.
The career risk for all funds to participate in onchain capital markets is now zero. "If druck is doing it, I can too"
I wouldn't be surprised to see onchain market volume 10x from here.
Welcome to the next stage of the bull market.
Arthur retweeted
Many from poorer countries have this bizarre fantasy or copium about themselves being exploited for their natural resources in this day and age, when it's just down to free market things.
Liquid commodities get shipped/stored/re-exported out from Singapore because shipping costs are far lower. Dumai for example doesn't have the volume or loads to warrant a larger vessel and good luck finding a smaller vessel to ship your stuff to anywhere outside of Klang or Singapore lol. And not to mention the insurance to cover loading delays and all the demurrage nonsense typically associated with Indonesian ports.
The banks? Nobody's financing goods with any remotely favourable terms if the whole trade cycle is dependent on your cargo being loaded in Indonesia on time.
Why does coal get shipped directly out from Indonesia then? Because there's no dry bulk storage for that anywhere in the region. And coal is something you can store at the docks out in the open instead of specialized tanks. Also, the logistical part is a massive pain in the ass. If you're doing middleman trades out of Kalimantan, you're entirely dependent on the smaller vessels/barges through the various rivers to the loading ports. That's why there's a juicy margin that exists only on paper.
So why doesn't Indonesia start developing its port infrastructure/logistics to capture more value? That's the plan. But similarly to Africa, that involves someone having to put down hundreds of millions of dollars or even more.
Who should do that? The government? How much will get siphoned off into dummy overpriced projects? Private companies? In this climate where you're subject to Prabowo's sudden policy changes that might screw you over? That sort of risk needs a massive guaranteed upside. The only ones we see getting into that are the various state-backed Chinese entities and even they are finding the flip-flopping regulatory changes to be too much for them.
Same story with Dangote and the African oil industry. Every African wanted a refinery there to capture the juicy value of the oil supply chain. And when it was all done and dusted at the cost of billions of dollars, everyone started complaining about him monopolizing trade flows and profiting off Africans, almost as if he was supposed to do an act of charity.
This is How Singapore Gets Rich from Indonesian Palm Oil Without Owning Any Land
Singapura memiliki 0 hektare kebun sawit, tapi bisa mengekspor sampai jutaan dolar.
Bagaimana cara Singapura untung jutaan dolar dari sawit padahal tidak memiliki lahan sama sekali?
Kalau diibaratkan, ada Pak Andi yang punya perusahaan di Indonesia, misalnya PT Sawit Nusantara. Dia punya kebun di Kalimantan dan Sumatera, jutaan hektare sawit, dan ribuan pekerja.
Harga produksi sawit di Indonesia sekitar 410 dolar per ton CPO.
Amerika ingin membeli. Harga jual ke Amerika sekitar 1.812 dolar per ton.
Kalau dijual langsung dari Indonesia ke Amerika, untungnya sekitar 1.400 dolar per ton.
Tapi ternyata Pak Andi punya perusahaan lain di Singapura yang satu grup. Perusahaan di Indonesia tidak menjual langsung ke Amerika, melainkan melalui perantara di Singapura dulu.
Data menunjukkan harga dari Indonesia ke Singapura sekitar 1.100 dolar per ton CPO.
Jadi alurnya:
Biaya produksi di Indonesia: 410 dolar/ton
Dijual ke Singapura: 1.100 dolar/ton → untung Indonesia sekitar 690 dolar/ton
Dari Singapura dijual ke Amerika: 1.812 dolar/ton → untung Singapura sekitar 712 dolar/ton
Padahal seluruh sawit berasal dari tanah Indonesia, tapi keuntungan yang lebih besar justru ada di Singapura.
Akibatnya Indonesia kehilangan potensi untung yang seharusnya. Seharusnya bisa untung sekitar 1.400 dolar per ton, tapi karena harus lewat Singapura, untungnya hanya sekitar 690 dolar. Kehilangan untung hampir dua kali lipat.
Ini sejalan dengan pernyataan Menteri Keuangan Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa pada Mei 2026, bahwa harga di Amerika atau tujuan akhir rata-rata dua kali lipat dibandingkan harga yang dijual dari Indonesia ke Singapura. Dari situ sudah rugi setengah dari potensi pendapatan.
Yang lebih mengejutkan: sawit tidak harus masuk ke Singapura secara fisik. Bisa dikirim langsung dari Indonesia ke Amerika, tapi transfer pembayarannya tetap melalui Singapura dulu. Sehingga ada potensi pajak yang hilang dua kali.
Praktik ini tidak hanya terjadi pada sawit. Komoditas lain seperti batu bara dan paduan besi juga sering mengalami under-invoicing (laporan nilai ekspor lebih rendah dari harga transaksi sebenarnya). Praktik ini sudah berlangsung sejak 1991 sampai 2024, sekitar 34 tahun. Prabowo menyebutnya sebagai penipuan/fraud.
Potensi kerugian negara ditaksir mencapai Rp15.400 triliun.
Bayangkan jika uang sebanyak itu masuk semuanya ke devisa Indonesia: likuiditas dolar naik, rupiah menguat, biaya impor turun, inflasi turun, dan daya beli masyarakat naik. Variabel konsumsi (C) ikut naik.
Di sisi lain, penerimaan negara naik sehingga ruang fiskal membesar. Bisa dialokasikan ke investasi (I) dan belanja pemerintah (G). Ekspor juga naik. Akibatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi (Y) ikut naik.
Jangan sampai Indonesia hanya dieksploitasi sumber daya alamnya, sementara kemakmuran mengalir ke negeri orang.
SC : @aliftowew
