đť Senior Betting/Prediction Analyst @GrandstandLtd @Rotowire âśď¸ "Expert" đş WCVB, WBZ, Boston 25, FOX 5 NY, ABC Tampa, CBS NY, Miami & LA âśď¸ @RealOBF
Florida - Boston
Joined January 2012
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Prediction Markets 101
My full interview with @LisaEvers of @Fox5NY discussing the surge in prediction market trading ahead of the 2026 NBA Finals
#FromTheArchives
@Kalshi
@Polymarket
@RobinhoodApp
@cryptocom
@Novig
@Underdog
@DKSports
@FanDuel
My tax dollars at work
Throw away the key
We are not going to tolerate threats to assassinate the president. Allison Albro, 21, Daytona Beach, is learning that the hard way. She posted this last night and got a visit from the @VolusiaSheriff Domestic Security Unit and the @SecretService. She said she was joking with this post, she doesnât have access to a Glock or any other weapon, and she would never hurt anyone. Today sheâs sitting in jail on charges of written threats to kill and unlawful use of a communications device. I would strongly advise anyone else thinking of posting a âjokeâ along these lines to think twice. VSO continues to work hand in hand with the Secret Service, FBI and all our law enforcement partners to ensure this presidential visit to Daytona Beach is a safe event for all who attend, and for our whole community.
When the Democrats lose Andrew Ross Sorkin ... it's time to cut a deal with prosecutors
Wow, Democrat Campaign Chair Suzan DelBene (D-WA) TORCHED by CNBC hosts over Democrat Mary Peltola election rigging scandal in Alaska đĽ
Andrew Ross Sorkin: âYou don't believe the report at all?â
âYou don't believe, You genuinely don't believe it happened. Do you want to know if it happened? ... As a human, as a citizen, if you're watching this play out and you say to yourself, this is crazy?â
For 4+ minutes, DelBene insists she believes Peltola & her campaign had NOTHING to do with placing a fake Dan Sullivan on the ballot after bombshell NYTimes investigation, complete with text message evidence, sparking multiple federal & criminal investigations
DelBene goes on a whataboutism tangent: âWell, the campaign has been clear that they deny what happened ⌠Republicans from the very beginning have been set up trying to rig the systemâ
âĄď¸Joe Kernen: âChairwoman, it's good you got that, you know, not a lot of DelBenes around so you probably have, Democrats won't be able to find anyone to run againstâ
Bill Speros retweeted
đ¨ BREAKING: CFTC seeks immediate TRO/PI to block Utahâs civil and criminal enforcement over event contracts on CFTC-regulated exchanges, including felony charges against Kalshi and its co-founders. Their filing: Utahâs pursuit of âdraconianâ penalties âcrosses the line.â
Bill Speros retweeted
Underdog is clearly betting that product velocity + prediction markets + diversification (Rips, legal fights) will keep it among the survivors in a crowded, high-spend category while the sale and potential SCOTUS clarity play out.
@Underdog CEO @JerLevine spoke with @RotoWire for a wide-ranging interview as the company navigates a major transition:
â
ď¸ Sale set to close in 2027
â
ď¸ First full NFL season on prediction markets
â
ď¸ DFS pulled back in some states
â
ď¸ A rapid expansion into card âRips.ââ
Key takeaways:
⢠Prediction markets are the clear priority. In September, they would have generated 40x more revenue than Drafts (DFS) in the states where both could have run. Levine called the decision to stop DFS in certain jurisdictions âvery easyâ on the numbers but still painful because he loves the product.
⢠Users in some places can trade via Aristotle Exchange, play DFS, or buy into Rips depending on location.â
⢠Legal posture remains aggressive. Underdog has sued seven states. Levineâs view is that sports event contracts are swaps that should be federally regulated by the @CFTC. The company built its stack so it can flip states or products on/off in real time if the Supreme Court (expected 2027â28) rules the other way.
⢠Marketing is part guerrilla. Credit goes to the internal team he calls âThe Rascalsâ: plane banner over Fenway calling for John Henry to fire Craig Breslow and sell the Red Sox, Lane Kiffin urinal cakes and toilet paper in Oxford, an âUnethical Hoopsâ board game roasting Shai Gilgeous-Alexanderâs foul-drawing, and same-day LeBron billboards in Philly. Levine says he doesnât even generate the ideasâthey just surprise him.
⢠First NFL season on prediction markets: âgreat.â Fantasy only covered roughly a third of what fans want to express opinions on; prediction markets get them to âdamn near 100%.â He argues the category is already mainstreamâmost sports fans know Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and Underdog even if they havenât activated yet.
⢠On the pending sale: culture and day-to-day should stay largely the same. He knows and trusts the buyer, is staying on to run the company, and has been telling the team their jobs wonât change much. Heâs already done his first public-market-style presentation.
⢠Super Bowl pick after a long pause: the Patriots.
Full interview: rotowire.com/article/underdoâŚ
Called this one in 2016
They're flipping from "No Kings!" to "Lame Duck" on a dime.
Can't wait for the "No Kings/Lame Duck/Save Democracy/We Won The Election/Put All Trump Supporters In Jail" Rallies
đ Sheeple gonna Sheeple
A decade after he began to remake the Republican Party in his image, President Donald Trump is facing the prospect of a voter rebellion Tuesday that could force conservatives to rethink their undying allegiance to the 80-year-old lame-duck⌠orlandosentinel.com/2026/10/âŚ
Bill Speros retweeted
BREAKING: Binance has been hacked with wallets across the Ethereum, Bitcoin, and TRON networks seeing outflows of -$5.7 billion.
The hack includes $1.45 billion worth of Bitcoin and $875 million worth of ETH.
If confirmed, this would mark the biggest hack in crypto history.
We expect more information shortly.
Bill Speros retweeted
JUST IN: CATHIE WOOD'S $15 BILLION ARK INVEST JUST SAID BINANCE HAS "ENOUGH LIQUIDITY TO COVER $5.7 BILLION HACK"
"OUR CRYPTO TEAM IS COVERING THIS VERY CLOSELY"
"THIS IS A RISK WE'VE BEEN WATCHING BUILD WITH AI"
WE MUST USE AI TO DEFEND CRYPTO "TO PREVENT MORE ATTACKS"
KEEP CALM AND KEEP YOUR #BITCOIN SAFE đĽ
Bill Speros retweeted
Our team is doing everything we can to support in the current situation, including blocking sends to compromised wallets. We've also reached out to Binance to offer our help.
Moments like this call for the industry to work together. Openly sharing any useful information and helping to protect customers should come first, regardless of which platform they use. If you can do anything to help, please do!
Crypto has been through many tough times, and has always come out stronger on the other side. This wonât be any different.
This is not a surprise
Part of the plan
For those who don't know, @Underdog's CEO @JerLevine is a Cambridge native.
We chatted about the plane. his company flew over Fenway Park this season demanding the John Henry fire Craig Breslow and sell the team.
I offered to fly the next one.
Underdog is clearly betting that product velocity + prediction markets + diversification (Rips, legal fights) will keep it among the survivors in a crowded, high-spend category while the sale and potential SCOTUS clarity play out.
@Underdog CEO @JerLevine spoke with @RotoWire for a wide-ranging interview as the company navigates a major transition:
â
ď¸ Sale set to close in 2027
â
ď¸ First full NFL season on prediction markets
â
ď¸ DFS pulled back in some states
â
ď¸ A rapid expansion into card âRips.ââ
Key takeaways:
⢠Prediction markets are the clear priority. In September, they would have generated 40x more revenue than Drafts (DFS) in the states where both could have run. Levine called the decision to stop DFS in certain jurisdictions âvery easyâ on the numbers but still painful because he loves the product.
⢠Users in some places can trade via Aristotle Exchange, play DFS, or buy into Rips depending on location.â
⢠Legal posture remains aggressive. Underdog has sued seven states. Levineâs view is that sports event contracts are swaps that should be federally regulated by the @CFTC. The company built its stack so it can flip states or products on/off in real time if the Supreme Court (expected 2027â28) rules the other way.
⢠Marketing is part guerrilla. Credit goes to the internal team he calls âThe Rascalsâ: plane banner over Fenway calling for John Henry to fire Craig Breslow and sell the Red Sox, Lane Kiffin urinal cakes and toilet paper in Oxford, an âUnethical Hoopsâ board game roasting Shai Gilgeous-Alexanderâs foul-drawing, and same-day LeBron billboards in Philly. Levine says he doesnât even generate the ideasâthey just surprise him.
⢠First NFL season on prediction markets: âgreat.â Fantasy only covered roughly a third of what fans want to express opinions on; prediction markets get them to âdamn near 100%.â He argues the category is already mainstreamâmost sports fans know Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and Underdog even if they havenât activated yet.
⢠On the pending sale: culture and day-to-day should stay largely the same. He knows and trusts the buyer, is staying on to run the company, and has been telling the team their jobs wonât change much. Heâs already done his first public-market-style presentation.
⢠Super Bowl pick after a long pause: the Patriots.
Full interview: rotowire.com/article/underdoâŚ
Norm Macdonald made the other comedians laugh
True genius
Norm could spot a killer before the audience did
Watching Norm Macdonald and David Spade revisit their SNL days, I got stuck on something Norm said about Dana Carvey.
Before Carvey performed his old-man character, Norm thought the idea was weak. Carvey basically told him to watch what happened next.
Then he destroyed.
And as he walked away, he leaned over and told Norm to go f*** himself.
To me, thatâs the perfect comedy story: one comedian knows the idea looks ridiculous, the other knows exactly what he can do with it. đ
Bill Speros retweeted
Cool
Underdog is clearly betting that product velocity + prediction markets + diversification (Rips, legal fights) will keep it among the survivors in a crowded, high-spend category while the sale and potential SCOTUS clarity play out.
@Underdog CEO @JerLevine spoke with @RotoWire for a wide-ranging interview as the company navigates a major transition:
â
ď¸ Sale set to close in 2027
â
ď¸ First full NFL season on prediction markets
â
ď¸ DFS pulled back in some states
â
ď¸ A rapid expansion into card âRips.ââ
Key takeaways:
⢠Prediction markets are the clear priority. In September, they would have generated 40x more revenue than Drafts (DFS) in the states where both could have run. Levine called the decision to stop DFS in certain jurisdictions âvery easyâ on the numbers but still painful because he loves the product.
⢠Users in some places can trade via Aristotle Exchange, play DFS, or buy into Rips depending on location.â
⢠Legal posture remains aggressive. Underdog has sued seven states. Levineâs view is that sports event contracts are swaps that should be federally regulated by the @CFTC. The company built its stack so it can flip states or products on/off in real time if the Supreme Court (expected 2027â28) rules the other way.
⢠Marketing is part guerrilla. Credit goes to the internal team he calls âThe Rascalsâ: plane banner over Fenway calling for John Henry to fire Craig Breslow and sell the Red Sox, Lane Kiffin urinal cakes and toilet paper in Oxford, an âUnethical Hoopsâ board game roasting Shai Gilgeous-Alexanderâs foul-drawing, and same-day LeBron billboards in Philly. Levine says he doesnât even generate the ideasâthey just surprise him.
⢠First NFL season on prediction markets: âgreat.â Fantasy only covered roughly a third of what fans want to express opinions on; prediction markets get them to âdamn near 100%.â He argues the category is already mainstreamâmost sports fans know Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, and Underdog even if they havenât activated yet.
⢠On the pending sale: culture and day-to-day should stay largely the same. He knows and trusts the buyer, is staying on to run the company, and has been telling the team their jobs wonât change much. Heâs already done his first public-market-style presentation.
⢠Super Bowl pick after a long pause: the Patriots.
Full interview: rotowire.com/article/underdoâŚ
This is why Trump canceled his trips this weekend
The kids have the sniffles again
JUST IN: Tonight US Forces reportedly struck an IRGC launch squad in Qeshm Island.
Additionally, locals are reporting a series of explosions in Bandar-e-Jask, in the vicinity of the airport. Southern Iran.
Contributed by: @BeamTracker_
No one else wanta to go to jail in Utah
FanDuel rep says starting at 10 am ET tmrw, âsports, politics and novelties will no longer be available in Utah.
FanDuel joins DraftKings in removing such event contracts.
The felony charges brought against Kalshi this week seem to have spooked others in the industry.
Our story will be updated to reflect this shortly.
Bill Speros retweeted
Note: Asset Class is coming your way tomorrow. I'm doing you a solid and giving you more time to subscribe.
frontofficesports.com/newsleâŚ
