The hub of realism and restraint in Washington.
Washington, DC
Joined February 2016
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STATEMENT: "President Trump is right that we don’t need a deal with Iran, but that should be an opening to end the war, not continue with the current failing approach to it."
Read the full response by @BH_Friedman:
defensepriorities.org/press-…
The proliferation of accuracy makes U.S. bases in the Middle East more vulnerable. However, the U.S. also benefits from the precision revolution, making our sprawling basing posture less necessary.
A recent paper from @BH_Friedman analyzes the challenge and opportunity here:
defensepriorities.org/explai…
The ballistic-missile revolution — as highlighted by Iranian and Houthi successes — shows the need to revamp military doctrines and raises the question of whether maintaining the current network of U.S. bases overseas is feasible. My analysis in @WSJ wsj.com/world/the-spread-of-…
Defense Priorities retweeted
Trump's strategy on Iran right now is to kick the can down the road, continue the status-quo and avoid making a decision (diplomacy or more war) one way or the other. The problem is that Iran gets a vote and Trump can't dictate how it acts.
Smarter people have made this point already, but I'll reiterate because it's extremely important: Iran won't sit back and allow itself to be squeezed indefinitely without a response. If the economic blockade gets too strong and it looks like Tehran is losing its leverage, then we will reach a point where Iran lashes out in an attempt to re-set the table. That's more plausible than Iran admitting defeat and conceding to what Trump wants.
We've been told that Trump has three options: (1) a deal, (2) more war and (3) maintaining/toughening the blockade. But the third option will eventually lead to the second and, in turn, make the first even harder to execute.
On @ForbesTVNews, DEFP Policy Director speaks with @_brittanylewis about the U.S.-mediated Ukraine-Russia talks and the dangers of a security guarantee for Ukraine.
youtube.com/watch?v=96ruUttF…
Defense Priorities retweeted
The Asia debate in Washington only asks how much to add: more troops, more ships, more missiles. It never asks whether the current posture makes Americans safer.
Read the new paper from Defense Priorities Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh: defensepriorities.org/explai…
Washington's rush to evacuate from UK airbases shows that America's forward basing posture is vulnerable.
@jekavanagh in @Newsweek:
"These bases are the foundation of U.S. military strategy and its forward defense and their vulnerability should be five-alarm fire for the U.S. military community."
newsweek.com/us-rushes-24-mi…
Defense Priorities retweeted
Don’t let Taiwan’s silicon shield become a US silicon trap — In @asiatimesonline, @lylegoldstein warns that America’s growing semiconductor ties to Taiwan could draw the U.S. into a dangerous conflict with China.
ow.ly/xlER5105ocF
A no-deal exit from the Iran war would be in line with U.S. interests.
A deal that ends the conflict would be welcome but a deal isn't necessary for America—nor is it worth prolonging the war.
Iranian tolls on shipping in the strait aren't optimal. They are an unfortunate consequence of this war, which should have never happened. But these fees are relatively low-cost compared to the much higher cost of disrupted traffic to the global market, and diffuse compared to U.S. military escorts and blockade operations that concentrate costs for American taxpayers and are dangerous to its troops.
The best course is for Washington to end this war as quickly as possible with or without good-enough diplomacy.
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Defense Priorities retweeted
I’ve never heard anyone suggest that a Ukraine settlement would include the forced demilitarization of a NATO country. I suspect what’s going on here is conflation of potential US sovereign decisions about where to put its troops with forcing others to not defend themselves, which is symptomatic of how wild the NATO / Russia commentary is.
On Veterans Day, we honor our servicemen and women, past and present, for everything they have given in defense of our nation. Thank you, veterans.
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Taiwan's advanced semiconductors are impressive but uninterrupted acces to this technology is not worth risking war between two nuclear-armed powers.
Read the latest from @lylegoldstein on Taiwan's "silicon shield" in @asiatimesonline:
asiatimes.com/2026/11/dont-l…
"The American people never thought bombing Iran was necessary, were deprived of any halfway convincing argument from the administration when the bombing started, and have been left to deal with the economic fallout[.]"
-@DanDePetris in @chitribopinions:
chicagotribune.com/2026/11/1…
In @starsandstripes, @lylegoldstein tells @sethrobson1 that U.S. bases along the first island chain in the Pacific appear highly vulnerable and Washington would be wise to consider a more defensible basing posture.
stripes.com/theaters/asia_pa…
DEFP Non-Resident Fellow Brian Haggerty speaks to @AamerISmad on what comes next in Iran:
“There’s reason to suspect that Trump may feel less restrained given that the political damage is done. At the same time, the strategic calculus or the strategic logic of what you hope to achieve through an escalation of strikes against Iran is no different today than it was a week ago or a month ago.”
apnews.com/article/trump-mid…
Even once the Iran war ends, there will be no revival of the status quo ante bellum.
“It’s never going to be back to its prewar days, when shipping through the strait was cheap and easy and everybody did it."
-@RKelanic in NYT
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/busin…
Defense Priorities retweeted
Why does Washington keep making the same mistakes in the Middle East?
On the latest None of the Above, I talked with @AkbarSAhmed of @washingtonsun, whose new book CROSSING THE RED LINE draws on interviews with about 175 officials, and @RKelanic of @defpriorities.
Rose called the book an ethnography of the Blob. "The game is to avoid responsibility, to not speak up, to make nice with the boss, say yes," she said.
Akbar notes that former officials now criticizing the war on Iran rarely own their part. They talk "as though all those policy failures and choices were an unfortunate weather system rather than the result of people whose salaries we pay."
I asked why the US keeps bombing Yemen. "They do it because they can," Rose said. "It's relatively cheap. It makes it look like they're quote unquote doing something."
And in Beijing? "They are busting out the champagne."
🎧 Listen wherever you get podcasts (link in replies). Thanks to our producer, Eloise Cassier.
On @ForbesTVNews, DEFP Middle East Director @RKelanic speaks with @_brittanylewis about the post-midterms outlook for the Iran war:
forbes.com/sites/forbestv/20…
"While President Donald Trump is responsible for his own decision to start and extend the Iran war, Israel played a big part in dragging the United States into this conflict in a bid to achieve regional hegemony by crushing Iran, its main rival."
@will_walldorf in @RealClearWorld:
realclearworld.com/articles/…
Defense Priorities retweeted
No deal is needed. A face saving ceasefire deal, even if it leads to no further concessions, might be useful as a way for Trump to claim a phony victory as he exits, but the Iranians probably won’t go for that. As long as the Strait reopens, tolled or not, we can just go.
In a new op-ed, @DanDePetris argues that post-election foreign policy restraint is hardly a sure thing.
Read more in @MSNOWNews:
ms.now/opinion/trump-iran-cu…
