The hub of realism and restraint in Washington.
Washington, DC
Joined February 2016
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NEW EXPLAINER by DEFP Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh: An access-only posture for the Middle East.
No vital American interest requires a significant, permanent military presence or a network of bases in the Middle East. The U.S. can meet its military objectives in the region by retaining only a small footprint of intelligence assets and the basing access needed to facilitate a rotational air and naval presence.
defensepriorities.org/explai…
Even once the Iran war ends, there will be no revival of the status quo ante bellum.
“It’s never going to be back to its prewar days, when shipping through the strait was cheap and easy and everybody did it."
-@RKelanic in NYT
nytimes.com/2026/11/01/busin…
Defense Priorities retweeted
Why does Washington keep making the same mistakes in the Middle East?
On the latest None of the Above, I talked with @AkbarSAhmed of @washingtonsun, whose new book CROSSING THE RED LINE draws on interviews with about 175 officials, and @RKelanic of @defpriorities.
Rose called the book an ethnography of the Blob. "The game is to avoid responsibility, to not speak up, to make nice with the boss, say yes," she said.
Akbar notes that former officials now criticizing the war on Iran rarely own their part. They talk "as though all those policy failures and choices were an unfortunate weather system rather than the result of people whose salaries we pay."
I asked why the US keeps bombing Yemen. "They do it because they can," Rose said. "It's relatively cheap. It makes it look like they're quote unquote doing something."
And in Beijing? "They are busting out the champagne."
🎧 Listen wherever you get podcasts (link in replies). Thanks to our producer, Eloise Cassier.
On @ForbesTVNews, DEFP Middle East Director @RKelanic speaks with @_brittanylewis about the post-midterms outlook for the Iran war:
forbes.com/sites/forbestv/20…
"While President Donald Trump is responsible for his own decision to start and extend the Iran war, Israel played a big part in dragging the United States into this conflict in a bid to achieve regional hegemony by crushing Iran, its main rival."
@will_walldorf in @RealClearWorld:
realclearworld.com/articles/…
Defense Priorities retweeted
No deal is needed. A face saving ceasefire deal, even if it leads to no further concessions, might be useful as a way for Trump to claim a phony victory as he exits, but the Iranians probably won’t go for that. As long as the Strait reopens, tolled or not, we can just go.
In a new op-ed, @DanDePetris argues that post-election foreign policy restraint is hardly a sure thing.
Read more in @MSNOWNews:
ms.now/opinion/trump-iran-cu…
One important lesson as the 120th Congress takes shape: "The most tragic wars are never simply won or lost. They limp on in the background."
@andrew_jarocki in @latimes:
latimes.com/opinion/story/20…
By refusing to enter the Saudi-Houthi war, Washington can avoid another reckless fight in the Middle East and encourage our Arab partners to take more responsibility for their own security.
@will_walldorf and @DanDePetris in @WPReview:
worldpoliticsreview.com/us-s…
"Despite Trump’s threats of renewing the bombing campaign, there seems to be a growing acknowledgement in the White House that the Iran problem can’t be resolved militarily."
-@DanDePetris in @Telegraph:
telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
Defense Priorities retweeted
Limits on NATO infrastructure are not the same as limits on national infrastructure. If NATO pulled back from frontline states, those states would not be left w/ no defense. They would be free to have their own military bases & forces (& those of Euro. partners) in those areas.
Congress has imposed that the U.S. must keep at least 76,000 American troops in Europe.
"It is doubtful that at least the troop floors would stand up to legal scrutiny," @jekavanagh tells @victor__jack and @paulmcleary in @POLITICOEurope:
politico.eu/article/allies-f…
"U.S.-Israeli attacks represent existential threats to Iran as a state, not just the Islamic Republic as a regime. Because the war has worsened the U.S.-Iran security dilemma, Iran will likely double down on its resistance strategies to reestablish deterrence."
Read more on the Iran war from @RKelanic:
defensepriorities.org/explai…
Defense Priorities retweeted
The goal of U.S. foreign policy should be to keep the United States safe & prosperous, not to "defend freedom around the world." The latter is not a prerequisite for the former.
COMMENTARY: Former U.S. ambassadors say the "United States cannot credibly defend freedom around the world while treating the survival of a democracy under attack as a bargaining chip" in an opinion piece for POLITICO.
🔗 politico.eu/article/former-u…
Defense Priorities retweeted
America Should Play Peacemaker in Ukraine realclearworld.com/articles/…
"There’s no question that one of the primary drivers for inflation at the present time is the ridiculous situation unfolding in the Strait of Hormuz. As I’ve written elsewhere, the present war against Iran is unconstitutional, strategically unnecessary, counterproductive, and acutely threatening to both the global and U.S. economy.
In recent days, the United States slapped together a deal with Russia for diesel to try to arrest rising fuel prices. Much of the vitriolic condemnation the deal received is justified: Donald Trump seems increasingly desperate while the bizarre gamble is unlikely to make any real difference on prices.
Still, there are two kernels of wisdom in Trump’s recent dealings. First, Trump accurately stated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “could have settled this war many times, many, many times, and he chooses not to.” Second, it is also true that U.S.-Russia relations badly need to be repaired and this process of rapprochement could be crucial to a settlement of the Russia-Ukraine War."
In @thehill, @BH_Friedman tells @helen_huiskes that even if the Israeli election brings about a change in leadership, Israel's military strategy will likely remain unchanged.
thehill.com/newsletters/the-…
In a recent paper, @jekavanagh calls for the U.S. to narrow its defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific, arguing that a strategy which shifts U.S. military commitments and presence from the vulnerable “first island chain” toward a more defensible “second island chain” would reduce U.S. military requirements and the risk of a war with China while still protecting U.S. interests. defensepriorities.org/explai…
Defense Priorities retweeted
The problem with insisting on a coordinated European peace push for Ukraine is that the revealed preference of most European leaders is interminable war. That is, they say they want peace but mean only deals delivering what they see as just for Ukraine, which in practice means rejecting all plausible deals while holding out for nearly impossible Ukraine battlefield gains.
Defense Priorities retweeted
NEW EXPLAINER by DEFP Director of Military Analysis @jekavanagh: An access-only posture for the Middle East.
No vital American interest requires a significant, permanent military presence or a network of bases in the Middle East. The U.S. can meet its military objectives in the region by retaining only a small footprint of intelligence assets and the basing access needed to facilitate a rotational air and naval presence.
defensepriorities.org/explai…
"Disputes happen because adversaries cannot agree on what fighting will achieve. The very 'peace deal' that Trump says he is trying to broker is jeopardized if the two sides cannot agree on the likely impact of continuing to fight."
-Erik Gartzke in @TheCriticMag
thecritic.co.uk/against-the-…
