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Joined August 2007
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Updated predictions, one day out:
🔵 El-Sayed wins Michigan
🔴 Collins holds Maine
🔵 Brown wins Ohio
🔵 Talarico wins Texas
🔵 Peltola wins Alaska
🔵 Hamilton upsets in Kansas
🔴 Hinson wins Iowa
🔴 Ricketts wins Nebraska
🔴 Graham wins SC
One change since Saturday: Ohio. The final polls and the early vote both lean Brown now.
That's a 52-48 Democratic Senate.
Trump gave his own list on 60 Minutes: the war, gas prices and deportations.
The MOU belongs under "the war." It's one reason, not the reason.
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Senate Republicans lost the majority and kept every leader.
Satire is getting hard to write.
Republicans Announce Plan To Do Exact Same Thing And Expect Different Results buff.ly/i4UjGXJ
Democrats lost 63 House seats on Nov. 2, 2010.
Fifty days later they had repealed Don't Ask, Don't Tell, ratified a nuclear treaty with Russia and passed five more big bills.
Republicans have the House, the Senate and the White House until noon on Jan. 3. Get moving.
June 18, 1621. Seven months after landing, two servants at Plymouth fought the first duel in New England. Sword and dagger. Both wounded.
The sentence: tied head to feet for 24 hours.
One of them was my 9th great-grandfather. Thanks, Grandpa Ed.
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The average American household:
1940: 3.67 people
1960: 3.33
1980: 2.76
2000: 2.62
2025: 2.50
The kids' table is disappearing.
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Deaths in Moderna's mRNA flu shot trials:
All causes: 102 vs. 97. Even.
No cause listed: 23 vs. 9.
Add "sudden death": 29 vs. 12.
None of the 29 had an autopsy. The FDA's own words: "residual uncertainty that cannot be resolved from existing trial data."
It approved it anyway.
Republicans who just lost House seats Trump carried by double digits:
De La Cruz (Trump +17.9)
McDowell (+17.1)
Spartz (+16.7)
Knott (+16.5)
Hudson (+15.8)
Moore (+15.0)
Van Drew (+12.5)
Max Miller (+11.1)
Carey (+10.0)
Safe seats. Until they weren't.
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Three rules for our Thanksgiving table:
No phones.
No keeping score.
Seconds for everyone.
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Justin Hart retweeted
Even in a wipeout, voters still trusted Republicans more on immigration. That's the one NOT to cave on.
Veterans Day ends in a few hours.
If there's a veteran in your family, call tonight and ask one question: "What do you remember most?"
Then just listen.
Justin Hart retweeted
The Dinner Table Test: if you can't explain your political position to your 12-year-old in two sentences, you don't understand it yet.
House seats that changed hands last week:
To Democrats: 43
To Republicans: 2
Both Republican pickups were open seats Trump won by 18 and 21 points. They took them by 3 and 1.
Thanksgiving is a national holiday because one magazine editor wouldn't quit.
Sarah Hale wrote to five presidents. On Sept. 28, 1863, she wrote to Lincoln. Five days later, he said yes.
She also wrote "Mary Had a Little Lamb."
Be annoying about good ideas.
Moderna's mRNA flu shot vs. a standard flu shot, in its own trial:
Caught the flu: 20 per 1,000 vs. 28 per 1,000.
That's the "26.6% efficacy" in the headlines. One fewer flu case for every 137 people.
Medicare pays $171 a dose for it. $24 for the standard shot.
Justin Hart retweeted
I dug into who switched and who stayed home.
• Switchers: 7% of Trump 2024 voters backed a Democrat. The exit poll, NORC and YouGov all land on the same 7%.
• Stay-homes: 76% of Trump voters say they voted. Harris voters: 87%.
• The ones who stayed home weren't diehards. Only 54% approve of Trump, vs. 80% of Trump voters who showed up. Their top reasons: didn't like the candidates, felt their vote didn't matter.
Bottom line: Republicans didn't lose their base. They lost the EDGES of it.
