Forecasting at @QuotientHQ | Created @theWIPmeetup | Prev @Cent @Gemini @Samsung | @maxosirisart PFP | Gazer #196
PDX
Joined March 2015
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matthew aka niftytime retweeted
We looked at where Q performs best and rebuilt Signals around what we learned.
That meant changing which forecasts become Signals and making the research easier to understand.
Paid memberships fund the work to improve Q, support our members and continue to build on what the results teach us.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
I’d love to get @QuotientHQ in front of more people who actively trade prediction markets.
Pick a market you know well or have a position in.
See what Q, our AI forecaster, thinks.
Where is the research useful? Where do you disagree? What’s missing?
Would love your feedback!
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Texas governor watch 👀
Will Democrats win the Texas governor race?
Q has No at 68¢ | Polymarket has No at 62¢
A Democratic win would be the upset. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and Abbott leads both major polling averages with a 20× money edge
If you want to receive more signals like this early, subscribe at app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Your money works. You don't.
Mandate turns a published forecast into a position on your own exchange account — sized, stopped and closed without you opening one.
The key you grant can trade, never withdraw.
Forecasts by @QuotientHQ.
Live on @HyperliquidX. Next @Polymarket.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
I disagree with this take
The value of prediction markets isn't just about aggregating information
It's about giving experts from different fields a platform to monetize their knowledge
I make money on Polymarket trading election markets, using information from publicly available sources
My account is public, and over time I've built an audience of people who follow my trades and opinions
That, in turn, helps shape sentiment across different markets
Prediction markets are much deeper than just information aggregation
For me, they're a news platform, a freelance marketplace, and a source of passive investment income - all in one
And yeah, it's not betting lol
First, full disclosure, as always: Kalshi is a sponsor on our show. So people will take any opinion with a grain of salt, which is fine. But at the heart of the Kalshi question is a simpler one: what’s the difference between a prediction market and a traditional betting platform, like DraftKings? I asked Tarek Mansour that question directly. Here’s his answer.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
🎯 Q saw the edge early before the market settled on Polymarket
Devils at Stars, Oct 27
Q: Devils 52¢
Polymarket: leaned Dallas
Final: Devils 5, Stars 1
Dallas had won 5 straight, and Hellebuyck was returning from a long layoff, but the backup in Dallas's net and New Jersey's 5-on-5 edge was the edge Q saw
If you want to receive more sports signals like this early, subscribe at app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Follow a headline into a related prediction market, then explore the research behind it.
With @capacitr_xyz you can choose Quotient as a source and open Q’s forecast and supporting research alongside the market.
Here's a look inside the app...
🤝 Paid partnership
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
Quotient Live | Midterms, Weekend Sports + Q in Capacitr teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1pJkOXkMa…
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
What does Q see in the midterms and this weekend’s games?
Today on Quotient Live:
- Election and sports forecasts in the updated Signals app
- Q inside @capacitr_xyz in our sponsored segment
- What’s ahead for Quotient
Join us here on X at 3 PM ET / 12 PM PT 📺
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
✅ Q caught the edge early before settling on Kalshi
WNBA Finals Game 5: Dream at Valkyries
Q: Valkyries 55¢
Kalshi: near a coin flip
Final: Valkyries 64, Dream 55
There were real risks, though. Atlanta won Game 2 on the road behind 24 points off turnovers, but home court and a regular-season sweep tipped it Q's way
If you want to receive more sports signals like this early, subscribe at app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
We revamped Signals and relaunched the app yesterday. 🥳
I wrote about what we learned from Q’s record, how to read a Signal and how people are already using Q in different ways.
Would love for you to check it out and let me know what you think.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
I'm not just a sports trader (lol) and Q isn’t just a sports forecaster.
Q (@QuotientHQ's AI forecaster) forecasts macro events, politics, business, culture, and events affecting oil and shipping.
So a team following an election or planning around a Fed decision could use Q's forecasts without ever placing or even thinking about a trade.
So yeah, this is bigger than sports. You don’t have to trade prediction markets to find Q’s research useful.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
We looked back at Q’s record and changed how we choose which forecasts become Signals.
The ones where Q’s side was priced under 50¢ were 24% of positions and 76% of the paper profit.
Today's newsletter covers what we learned, how to get started and how people are already using Q.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
AI + Crypto is the next frontier
@a16zfrontier am I right?
ALT mandate.markets
New on Mandate: Polymarket categories.
Turn off the categories you don't want traded, and see every call by category on Polymarket , or by market on Hyperliquid, after fees. Statistics are now open to every account.
Congrats @QuotientHQ on today's new Signals app launch.
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
so much is happening with forecasting + prediction markets. and @amphib0ly is building something special with Quotient.
Before your next prediction market trade,
see what Q thinks.
Our AI forecaster covers politics, sports, culture and business. Signals highlight markets where Q thinks the price is wrong.
The new Quotient Signals app is live: app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
been playing around with this because it’s always better than the predictions i can figure out myself, excited to see it public!!
check out: app.quotient.social
Before your next prediction market trade,
see what Q thinks.
Our AI forecaster covers politics, sports, culture and business. Signals highlight markets where Q thinks the price is wrong.
The new Quotient Signals app is live: app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
I had a chance to check out the new app from @QuotientHQ and I love what they’re building. The app is clean and intuitive.
Kalshi and Polymarket did over 70B in volume in September. That number will grow.
Q gives ppl an edge in trading. What’s that worth??? Accumulating $QUOTIENT
Before your next prediction market trade,
see what Q thinks.
Our AI forecaster covers politics, sports, culture and business. Signals highlight markets where Q thinks the price is wrong.
The new Quotient Signals app is live: app.quotient.social
matthew aka niftytime retweeted
The "Writes a good S*bst*ck" to "Superior data analysis service" pipeline
Excited to see this launch!
Before your next prediction market trade,
see what Q thinks.
Our AI forecaster covers politics, sports, culture and business. Signals highlight markets where Q thinks the price is wrong.
The new Quotient Signals app is live: app.quotient.social