Q3cap

Been keeping an eye on @TxFlow_L1. Think this could be one of the better perp plays right now. Grassroots, bootstrapped team with no VC allocations, yet already generating serious revenue. $1.57M~ in October alone and billions in monthly trading volume. Season 1 points are live, with 1.25M trader points distributed weekly. No token yet, but I think an airdrop is likely. Not saying it’s the next Hyperliquid, but the early setup reminds me of the kind of opportunity people wish they’d caught sooner. If you’re trading perps anyway, worth looking into. Sign up through my referral for 5% off trading fees: app.txflow.com/r/TXBONES

Markets still favor a December rate hike. But if oil keeps falling and stocks stay weak, the odds of holding steady could rise. Cheaper oil eases inflation pressure, while weaker markets can weigh on spending. Add weaker jobs data and slowing growth, and we could even start hearing more about cuts, especially if inflation cools too. Source: CME FedWatch (cmegroup.com/markets/interes…)

Something I’ve noticed: December 2026 rate hike odds are coming down. Now roughly 70% for a hike and 30% for a hold. It’s starting to look like the lead-up to the last FOMC: hike odds fading, hold odds climbing as the meeting approaches. My call: no December hike. I expect this trend to continue. Source: CME FedWatch cmegroup.com/markets/interes…

People misunderstand what caused FTX’s collapse and why the Binance situation is materially different. FTX diverted customer deposits into Alameda, which had effectively unlimited credit and liquidation exemptions. When lenders demanded repayment during the 2022 crash, customer funds filled the gap. The problem was embedded in how the exchange operated. Binance reports a ~$6.3B theft, says it has allocated over $6.34B to cover losses, and has replenished 90% of affected assets. Roughly $3B has separately been frozen. An exchange absorbing a theft with its own capital is fundamentally different from an affiliated trading firm secretly draining customer deposits. Based on current disclosures, the automatic FTX comparison looks weak. Withdrawals resuming and verified backing are the next tests, but the headline loss alone doesn’t establish an FTX-style solvency crisis.

Economic data like CPI shifts rate hike odds, driving the repricing you see on days like this. Any narrative that ignores that is basically uninformed. CME: cmegroup.com/markets/interes…