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Have lodged my complaint to the International Criminal Court. Final version can be downloaded from here:
sabhlokcity.com/2020/11/my-c…
Unfortunately, I missed this article in mainstream media.
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One of the nurses who treated Peske later described his deterioration as a burning candle with no oxygen left to draw from the air. It was as if a light had gone out, Roberg said: “He couldn’t survive from being isolated.”
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This directly contradicts the recommendation of @gbdeclaration which was issued just a few days earlier. Deaths from causes other than covid had already started increasing rapidly - and this was only a few months after lockdowns and panic. The long term effect on non-covid deaths was devastating.
PLUS such old-age institutions could NEVER be protected from covid anyway. Covid WILL transmit - because it is asymptomatic in the early stages.
Will add this to the textbook.
And, of course, I note that @DrJBhattacharya and @MartinKulldorff are still determined NOT to retract the GBD. A good scientist should not be afraid of changing their mind.
Reminder: GBD Take 2 should look something like this: sanjeev.sabhlokcity.com/Misc…
On this day in COVID history, October 27, 2020:
The hidden Covid-19 health crisis: Elderly people are dying from isolation
Source: NBC
nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hid…
Dear .@LawrenceWongST, @LKYSch - note this observation of Paul Frijters, professor (formerly full time) at London School of Economics.
He has not only published a CBA of covid, he has advised many governments across the world on cost-benefit analysis.
You might consider engaging with him for advice on how to re-evaluate Singapore's covid policies. Singapore's White Paper is hugely defective, and even dangerous.
Replying to @sabhlok
yes, nice data. One can convert it to an additional mortality of about 2%, i.e. per million inhabitants, 20K lost years of life. For the whole world population, that is 160 million lost years of life, equivalent to about 3 million random deaths. Low compared to other estimates.
Panic spreads in waves. China is considered to be a bunch of weirdos, so no one truly bothered about what's going on in China. They also didn't get too alarmed when China imposed its draconian lockdown - they were probably happy that this "deadly" virus would now be nipped in the bud.
So, panic didn't go global till end-February. To help "stop" panic, most Western nations closed flights from China (but the Chinese could take alternative routes, anyway, to travel).
But China had other plans - fake videos. And "Public Health" experts had other plans as well: bogus "models". This was their moment to "shine" and become famous.
By the time the wave of panic finally broke out of China, it had become a 9.0 scale tsunami. People went stark mad everywhere in the world (except in Sweden, and perhaps in Tanzania).
Even I was terrified. I examined the data and and asked my parents in India to shelter inside their home. And I too requested to work from home because, aged 60, I felt vulnerable. My age-based risk management piece in TOI (6 March 2020) was my best attempt to rationally consider this issue - since no one around me was thinking rationally. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/…
(I was wrong about my approach - just as the @gbdeclaration which came out months later - was wrong).
And then they went OVERBOARD in the West. Instead of a targeted approach, they went for full lockdowns. What drove this? MASS PANIC - which I named The Great Hysteria.
Till today, most people are still hysterically terrified of covid. Rationality has not returned, and countries like Singapore are going to impose EVEN MORE DRACONIAN policies the next time around.
The main question for us is this: How did Tegnell manage to calm Sweden when the whole world was going mad?
What he did is a major part of the solution to future panics: superb leadership.
Fear is the "match" that "lights" pandemic panics.
Forensic fire investigators look for clues to distinguish ordinary fires from arson. They look for V-shaped flame patterns, the possible ignition source and accelerants. Likewise, we need to apply forensics to pandemic panics - which cause vastly greater harm than any arson.
Pandemic forensic investigators must focus on: Who started it.
First and foremost, it has to be someone credible. Second, this person must display a level of fear - not uncontrolled fear, but sufficient to alarm others.
Third, there must be a situation in which people do not trust their government. An Anders Tegnell can readily quell any fear, because he is trusted. Most others can't.
Fourth, the flames of fear must be "fanned". The contagion of fear must spread rapidly. These days, social media does the job wonderfully. But then we also have the media which is absolutely irresponsible and incapable of asking basic questions.
So how do we stop pandemic panics?
We can't stop untrustworthy governments. But note that such governments don't cause panic. They come into play after the credible source has expressed fear.
So the only thing we can try to do is to stop doctors from experiencing severe fear.
That will mean better education, better training under leaders like Tegnell. But it will also mean having a better and always-present systems for isolation which can be quietly used to test the actual nature of the new virus.
We will be most successful if we can stop the INITIAL FEAR, the INDEX CASE. Once fear is out of the bag, we can't stop the DANCING DOCTOR SYNDROME - as thousands of panicked doctors start dancing in empty hospitals - like lunatics dancing on the moon.
Fear is the "match" that "lights" pandemic panics.
Forensic fire investigators look for clues to distinguish ordinary fires from arson. They look for V-shaped flame patterns, the possible ignition source and accelerants. Likewise, we need to apply forensics to pandemic panics - which cause vastly greater harm than any arson.
Pandemic forensic investigators must focus on: Who started it.
First and foremost, it has to be someone credible. Second, this person must display a level of fear - not uncontrolled fear, but sufficient to alarm others.
Third, there must be a situation in which people do not trust their government. An Anders Tegnell can readily quell any fear, because he is trusted. Most others can't.
Fourth, the flames of fear must be "fanned". The contagion of fear must spread rapidly. These days, social media does the job wonderfully. But then we also have the media which is absolutely irresponsible and incapable of asking basic questions.
So how do we stop pandemic panics?
We can't stop untrustworthy governments. But note that such governments don't cause panic. They come into play after the credible source has expressed fear.
So the only thing we can try to do is to stop doctors from experiencing severe fear.
That will mean better education, better training under leaders like Tegnell. But it will also mean having a better and always-present systems for isolation which can be quietly used to test the actual nature of the new virus.
We will be most successful if we can stop the INITIAL FEAR, the INDEX CASE. Once fear is out of the bag, we can't stop the DANCING DOCTOR SYNDROME - as thousands of panicked doctors start dancing in empty hospitals - like lunatics dancing on the moon.
I've slightly updated the section on covid medical panic.
There are plenty of other examples of medical panic in this chapter (#11), along with extensive reasons why doctors DO PANIC most. (They often have very good reasons to fear for their life.)
sanjeev.sabhlokcity.com/Misc…
Here's the earliest publicly reported screenshot of Li Wenliang's WeChat message that I've found (8 February 2020). tech.ifeng.com/c/7ttfYQ1cwBT
English translation of the article:
"Driven by panic and an information vacuum, people have engaged in a "self-rescue" effort by sharing information and copying each other's "homework."
"Among these unofficial messages, screenshots became the primary medium. The eight medical staff members who were punished for "spreading rumors" did so because they shared the messages in WeChat groups, and the chat screenshots became so-called "evidence" of spreading false information."
This message from Li (meant only for his college mates) went viral across China, up-ending any official announcements. In an atmosphere of distrust, China started panicking, then Hong Kong, and soon the whole world was buying toilet paper.
Here's the earliest publicly reported screenshot of Li Wenliang's WeChat message that I've found (8 February 2020). tech.ifeng.com/c/7ttfYQ1cwBT
English translation of the article:
"Driven by panic and an information vacuum, people have engaged in a "self-rescue" effort by sharing information and copying each other's "homework."
"Among these unofficial messages, screenshots became the primary medium. The eight medical staff members who were punished for "spreading rumors" did so because they shared the messages in WeChat groups, and the chat screenshots became so-called "evidence" of spreading false information."
This message from Li (meant only for his college mates) went viral across China, up-ending any official announcements. In an atmosphere of distrust, China started panicking, then Hong Kong, and soon the whole world was buying toilet paper.
Copilot's translation of Li Wenliang's message of 30 December 2019 is crucial to the START OF PANIC.
What he said is clear: "TELL YOUR FAMILY AND LOVED ONES TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS".
No one can therefore argue that this was purely a professional message to his medical colleagues. This was clearly intended to REACH OUTSIDE THE MEDICAL COMMUNITY.
The only reason Wenliang wrote this is because he panicked. He thought a SARS-like virus had arisen and instead of conducting systematic analysis, he went straight to WARNING FAMILY AND LOVED ONES about it. (The message went VIRAL on WeChat!).
The Chinese government first took heavy handed action against Li but then had to inform the public themselves. In the meantime, due to lack of trust of the government, people imagined this issue to be FAR WORSE than it actually was.
When we throw a match into an ammunition dump, we can't predict exactly how the explosions will occur, but it is clear that without this initial PANICKED COMMENT BY LI, global panic on the scale that it ultimately became would not have been possible.
Plus many other doctors panicked throughout the world: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
Fortunately, we now have AI to trawl through millions of documents and tell us the main story.
Grok: "Li’s (and the other doctors’) private-to-public leakage was one of the earliest vectors that turned internal medical awareness into wider public and social-media awareness inside China."
My claim re: the covid panic is **NOT** that ONLY front line doctors panicked, but that the panic was soon RATIFIED BY W.H.O. by late January 2020 - who APPROVED of Xi's lockdown and claimed its immediate success. Then, fake videos emerged from around mid-January 2020 - I've noted the precise date elsewhere), WELL TIMED TO JUSTIFY XI'S LOCKDOWN. (That's further proof that these were created by CCP.)
The domino effect of ALL these aggravating factors was rather exceptional - I don't think such panic will easily emerge again.
But there is now a new risk: FAKE VIDEOS BY AI can be generated in minutes - if a criminal government wants to create panic.
Only intelligence agencies can stop criminal governments like CCP from producing fake videos to terrorise the world. But that can't be remedied, since only morons gravitate to "intelligence" agencies.
So, can we somehow dampen MEDICAL PANIC? I believe, yes, with better isolation systems.
grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5LWNvc…
This woman should be in prison, not teaching public health!
@Sydney_Uni - if you are interested in ACTUAL SCIENCE, read this:
sabhlok.open-ph.org/Docs/Tex…
I thought you were on the right track in 2017: "So in the long-run 'we' are going to be fine as long as there is something, no matter how unimportant or rarely performed by us currently, that robots and computers absolutely cannot do, no matter how much research time the research-robots of the future throw at it."
I've elaborated in my TOI blog post why it is a really good thing that AI/robotics will take any further repetitive/ boring jobs out of our hands, leaving humans free to reach out to what they are really good at: creativity and other self-actualising projects.
One can foresee the complete reshaping of the education industry, in particular - with employers looking for proven marketable skills, not mere paper "degrees". And new businesses flourishing in areas such as travel and tourism, including travel into space and the deep sea.
The manufacturing element of human capacity is only a tiny portion of our abilities. There is no upper limit on creativity.
Plus there is always a circular economy. No one can produce without selling the stuff - and so humans can never become redundant.
I've not see Blade Runner, but I suggest your original thesis of 2017 is sound.
And let's not forget human irrationality: they are capable of destroying things they disagree with. War is always an option.
Replying to @sabhlok
I wrote about this a decade ago (clubtroppo.com.au/2017/04/12…). I do think a Blade Runner world is quite possible, where only a few at the top have freedoms, the rest scrounges. Think of India in the feudal age.
Fortunately, we now have AI to trawl through millions of documents and tell us the main story.
Grok: "Li’s (and the other doctors’) private-to-public leakage was one of the earliest vectors that turned internal medical awareness into wider public and social-media awareness inside China."
My claim re: the covid panic is **NOT** that ONLY front line doctors panicked, but that the panic was soon RATIFIED BY W.H.O. by late January 2020 - who APPROVED of Xi's lockdown and claimed its immediate success. Then, fake videos emerged from around mid-January 2020 - I've noted the precise date elsewhere), WELL TIMED TO JUSTIFY XI'S LOCKDOWN. (That's further proof that these were created by CCP.)
The domino effect of ALL these aggravating factors was rather exceptional - I don't think such panic will easily emerge again.
But there is now a new risk: FAKE VIDEOS BY AI can be generated in minutes - if a criminal government wants to create panic.
Only intelligence agencies can stop criminal governments like CCP from producing fake videos to terrorise the world. But that can't be remedied, since only morons gravitate to "intelligence" agencies.
So, can we somehow dampen MEDICAL PANIC? I believe, yes, with better isolation systems.
grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5LWNvc…
More on Li Wenliang, the alleged "whistleblower" of Wuhan - from Ben Irvine's book, Truth about the Wuhan lockdown.
It is impossible to decipher what exactly happened to trigger the panic, but it is clear that EIGHT DOCTORS were involved in some way, with one of them dying. (Australia's or US intelligence agencies SHOULD HAVE looked into this matter, but they are ABSOLUTELY INCOMPETENT).
Ben Irvine's theory that the fake videos were generated by the public is bogus. These videos were generated at a time before AI - and required REAL RESOURCES. Only CCP had such resources. I've seen tens of such videos - they were NOT created by ordinary Chinese.
The covid panic seems to have been either deliberately caused by CCP or accidentally started by a few FOOL DOCTORS who panicked.
The fact that a vast number of doctors across the world joined this bandwagon of panicked doctors is very clear. I've documented many such instances:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
(I'll add one from Singapore shortly.)
More on Li Wenliang, the alleged "whistleblower" of Wuhan - from Ben Irvine's book, Truth about the Wuhan lockdown.
It is impossible to decipher what exactly happened to trigger the panic, but it is clear that EIGHT DOCTORS were involved in some way, with one of them dying. (Australia's or US intelligence agencies SHOULD HAVE looked into this matter, but they are ABSOLUTELY INCOMPETENT).
Ben Irvine's theory that the fake videos were generated by the public is bogus. These videos were generated at a time before AI - and required REAL RESOURCES. Only CCP had such resources. I've seen tens of such videos - they were NOT created by ordinary Chinese.
The covid panic seems to have been either deliberately caused by CCP or accidentally started by a few FOOL DOCTORS who panicked.
The fact that a vast number of doctors across the world joined this bandwagon of panicked doctors is very clear. I've documented many such instances:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets…
(I'll add one from Singapore shortly.)
COVID PANIC STARTED WITH A DOCTOR, AS WELL
In the case of covid it was Li Wenliang, a doctor at Central Hospital of Wuhan, who effectively started the global panic.
On 30 December 2019, he shared an internal hospital report on a WeChat group with his university friends. He asked that his friends "remind their family members and loved ones to be on the alert". Although that did not amount to going to the media, it soon spread across the city and caused panic.
Wenliang must have been in state of panic of some kind - else why would he disseminate an INTERNAL HOSPITAL REPORT outside the hospital?
(That he later caught covid and died, and a few other colleagues of his also died is actually JUSTIFICATION FOR MEDICAL PANIC. Doctors ARE exposed the most to novel viruses/ bugs, and they DO die in larger proportion than other occupations. This issue needs to be fixed, via a separate Isolation Hospital system).
[Note: The Wuhan CDC "warning" was internal to hospitals and was not public, so that did NOT start the global panic]
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wen…















