The Sentimentrader Advantage: Over 20 years of exclusive, data-driven insights and unrivaled market sentiment tools.
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Joined July 2007
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Energy stocks are joining oil in extreme optimism.
$XLE sentiment jumped from 53.43 to 85.46 on Oct. 23, while $USO sentiment reached 93.11, up from 67.57 on Oct. 21.
Both are now above 80 as oil prices continue to climb.
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Shanghai rallied off its lows on Oct. 23, but the breadth picture was mixed. $SHCOMP gained 0.9%, and its advance/decline reading swung from -1,788 to +1,348.
Yet the SHCOMP 4 Week Low % reading jumped from 37.7% to 73.5%, pointing to persistent weakness beneath the surface.
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The offshore yuan hit 6.67 per dollar, its strongest level since June 2022. Three months after prior signals, the S&P 500 was higher 90% of the time.
Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/offs…
$PLTR is down 5.9% since Oct. 12, yet its Trend Score still sits at 10.
What has changed is volatility. By Oct. 23, 20-day historical volatility had risen from 25.72 to 45.54, while sentiment stood near neutral at 53.10.
Explore $PLTR's trend, sentiment, and volatility data: sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-23)
• Smart Money 0.53 | Neutral
• Dumb Money 0.49 | Neutral
Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader:
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The same sentiment signal can mean opposite things depending on one thing: the trend it shows up in. An industrials versus staples flip just fired, and whether it’s bullish hinges entirely on context. Inside an uptrend the next few months lean positive. Pulled out of context, nearly half the past cases came from the 2000 and 2008 bear markets.
Four reports this week. Weight of Evidence: Constructive, selective.
U.S. Stocks • Staples • Gold Miners • Bitcoin
Read the full Weekly Research Signals: mailchi.mp/sentimentrader/go…
Stocks sold off on Oct. 22. Bonds rallied, but gold fell.
Sentiment showed an even sharper divide: $BND sentiment jumped to 95.54 while $GLD sentiment plunged to 6.53.
The 89 point gap is wider than 99.98% of readings since 2008.
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
Everyone's asking if this is the top. One classic gauge of leverage says not yet.
When NYSE margin debt sits above its 12-month average, stocks have historically been in a favorable regime. When it drops below, bear markets become far more likely. As of the end of September, margin debt was still running 11.9% above that average, even with this week's tech selloff.
This week's TradingEdge Weekly video covers the margin debt backdrop, a consumer staples breadth thrust, a gold miner washout bounce, and a bitcoin trend signal turning bullish.
The full SentimenTrader market view:
youtu.be/gRmGaf2pKpo
Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/trad…
$SPX fell 1.21% on Oct. 22, but equal weight $RSP gained 0.73%. Same S&P 500 stocks. Very different result when the biggest names carry less weight.
Since 2008, that's happened on just 3 of 601 days when $SPX fell at least 1%.
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-22)
• Smart Money 0.5 | Neutral
• Dumb Money 0.54 | Neutral
Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader:
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
A bullish trend signal can still leave a rough entry. In Bitcoin's 11 completed signals with both Trend Scores above 7, nine were higher one month later. The other two lost 3.6% and 20%.
sentimentrader.com/blog/tren…
$BTC at $83.4K, and I’m not convinced the next stop is $100K just yet.
The daily structure is improving, but there’s still work to do.
$80K–$82K has held as support, while $84K is the first level bulls need to reclaim.
Above that, $87.2K is the real test. A confirmed breakout could open the path toward $100K.
ETF inflows are returning, but Tuesday’s $23.2M is hardly enough to confirm a major shift in demand.
And with Brent above $110, inflation and Treasury yields remain risks.
My bias stays cautiously bullish above $80K, but I want to see volume behind the move.
Is $87.2K the beginning of a new leg higher, or where this recovery runs out of buyers?
Two weeks ago, 76% of $XLK stocks were above their 50 day moving averages, versus just 42% of $XLV stocks.
Now it's 56% for tech and 78% for healthcare.
The $SPX remains within 1% of its recent high, but breadth leadership has shifted sharply toward healthcare.
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
$XLI sentiment surged versus $XLP.
The sentiment spread jumped over 60 points in 1 day.
The S&P 500 is above its 200 day average. After prior signals, it averaged +4.9% over 5 months above and -9.0% below, with a 126 session cooldown.
Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/the-…
High beta has regained some ground against quality, but the October reversal remains substantial.
The S&P High Beta / High Quality Relative Ratio Rank fell from 100 on Oct. 6 to 19 on Oct. 16, then rebounded to 39 by Oct. 21, even as $SPX remained near its highs.
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-21)
• Smart Money 0.49 | Neutral
• Dumb Money 0.5 | Neutral
Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader: sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
Half the stocks in $SOXX are now below their 200 day moving averages. Just five sessions ago, only 20% were.
Breadth fell 30 percentage points in five sessions, ranking among the worst 0.8% of five session changes since 2009.
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
Bitcoin's trend setup has turned bullish, with both Trend Scores at least 8. A strategy invested only under those conditions returned 92.5% annualized historically. Recent returns have been smaller than in Bitcoin's early years.
Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/tren…
The KOSPI fell 3.7% Tuesday, with a sharp reversal in market breadth.
Its advance/decline reading swung from +435 to minus 584 in one session.
Of 4,633 daily breadth changes since 2008, only 18 were this large on the downside.
sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-20)
• Smart Money 0.5 | Neutral
• Dumb Money 0.48 | Neutral
Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader: sentimentrader.com/light-dat…
