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MACRO RADAR | WED, OCT 28 · RECAP 📡 FED: Rates held at 3.75–4.00% as expected, but the decision passed 10–2, with two policymakers favoring a 25bp hike. The split highlights continued pressure for tighter policy. BANK OF CANADA: Rates increased 25bps to 2.50%, while the 2027 inflation forecast jumped to 3.1% from 2.0%. Further tightening remains possible as higher energy costs spread through the economy. RBNZ: A surprise 4–3 vote kept rates at 2.75% against expectations of a hike. NZD fell as much as 1.7% following the announcement. UK BUDGET: Fiscal headroom narrowed to £15B from roughly £24B in March, leaving a smaller buffer against rising borrowing costs. MARKET CONTEXT: Central banks face persistent inflation but differ on how quickly to tighten policy. Thursday's US GDP and Core PCE could shift rate expectations again, immediately after the Fed's decision.

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MACRO RADAR | WED, OCT 28 · PREVIEW 📡 UK AUTUMN BUDGET: With borrowing costs near multi-decade highs, attention turns to fiscal plans, debt issuance and updated economic forecasts. Unexpected measures could trigger significant moves in GBP and gilt yields. BANK OF CANADA: A 25bp rate hike to 2.50% is widely expected. With inflation at 3.1% and economic growth weakening, updated projections and guidance on further tightening will be crucial for CAD. FED RATE DECISION: Rates are expected to remain at 3.75–4.00%. The main focus is whether the Fed signals another hike in December as inflation remains elevated. Any shift in guidance could affect Treasury yields, USD and gold. MARKET CONTEXT: New Zealand's surprise rate hold earlier today has already demonstrated the risks of heavily priced-in policy decisions. With a Fed pause and Canadian hike largely anticipated, forward guidance and deviations from expectations could drive the strongest market reactions.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: OpenAI plans to buy Google TPUs, expanding its compute supply beyond Nvidia after already renting the chips since 2025. Oracle will also become the first hyperscaler outside Google to offer TPUs, with deployments starting in 2027. Scarce GPUs become less of a gatekeeper to AI scale, shifting the advantage toward who can turn cheaper capacity into better models. 🧠

Tuesday Insights: The Day the Web Almost Broke 🌐 Millions of independent websites were suddenly tied to one patch. 01 | From Bug to Exploit During an AI-assisted audit in August, Ryan Austin and the Calif team found exploitable paths reaching back to PHP 5.4.0 from 2012. Within two weeks, they had working unauthenticated remote code execution, allowing a crafted request to run code on a vulnerable server without a login. Both flaws were rated 9.2/10. 02 | Millions at Once The weakness lived inside PHP itself, beneath individual applications. Researchers confirmed attacks against WordPress, Drupal, Joomla, MediaWiki and basic PHP scripts. PHP powers 69.2% of websites with a known server-side language, while Censys identified 4.18M hosts and 67.6M web properties potentially exposed. 03 | Four Days Early After two months of coordinated disclosure, patches were scheduled for October 21. AWS later traced an exploitation attempt to October 17, then found proof-of-concept exploits 12 hours before the embargo lifted. PHP warned there was no complete mitigation: updating was the only safe fix. 04 | The Price of Safety Organizations unable to patch in time began sacrificing access. Government portals, hospitals, the Port of Rotterdam, Wikimedia and the Internet Archive restricted or shut services while updates were applied. Many had no confirmed breach; going offline removed the risk of leaving an exploitable server exposed. 📌 Key takeaway The web held, but a new reality emerged: AI shortened both timelines, discovery for defenders and weaponization for attackers.

MACRO RADAR | TUE, OCT 27 · PREVIEW 📡 US DURABLE GOODS: September orders are forecast to rebound 2.0% MoM (prev. -0.1%), with orders excluding transportation expected to rise 0.6%. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: The Conference Board index is expected to fall to 81.2 from 81.9, suggesting continued weakness in household sentiment. NEW HOME SALES: September sales are forecast at 651K annualised, down from 684K in August. MARKET CONTEXT: Aircraft orders can distort headline manufacturing figures, making underlying demand particularly important. Meanwhile, builder confidence has fallen to a 14-year low of 29, with 43% of builders cutting prices. Today's releases will help assess the strength of business demand and household activity ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: Anthropic has filed for a Nasdaq IPO under $ANT, revealing $16.3B in H1 revenue, up from $1.2B a year earlier. Operating losses narrowed to $693M from $2.1B, while more than 1,900 customers now spend at least $1M annually and roughly 250 spend over $10M. A public listing would put frontier AI economics under quarterly scrutiny for the first time, exposing how quickly revenue can catch up with the cost of building and running the models. 🤖

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📰 NEWS: A security flaw in Electrum allowed malicious servers to replace pending Bitcoin transactions with fraudulent payments, tricking users into authorizing transfers to attackers when increasing transaction fees. At least one theft was confirmed before developers released version 4.8.3 to address the vulnerability. 🔐

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: bitcoin:native slipped below $80,000, falling nearly 2% as traders cut risk ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision. $ETH dropped almost 3%, XRP about 3%, while Asia’s AI selloff continued, with Goldman Sachs cutting its 12-month KOSPI target by 25%. A stronger signal for a December rate hike would keep borrowing costs elevated, pressuring both tech valuations and crypto liquidity. 📉

📰 NEWS: Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index dropped 2.7% on Sunday, its worst session in 18 months, as renewed fighting with Yemen's Houthis unsettled regional markets. Saudi Aramco fell 0.9%, while Egypt's blue-chip index plunged 3.6%, its steepest daily decline since June 2025. 📉

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: Robinhood Chain stock tokens generated $3.68B in DEX volume over the past month, with 59% traded outside regular U.S. market hours and $532M changing hands on weekends alone. Nasdaq is preparing to extend U.S. equity trading to 23 hours a day, five days a week from December 6. Yet continuous trading has not produced independent price discovery. Across 13 weekends, tokenized stocks had reflected only 10% of Monday’s opening move by Sunday evening, rising to 85% after U.S. futures reopened. The market clock is disappearing faster than Wall Street’s role in setting the price. 📈

MACRO RADAR | OCT 26–30 · WEEKLY OUTLOOK 📡 Five central bank decisions, the UK Budget and major US growth and inflation data set up a busy macro week, with Wednesday and Thursday carrying the biggest market catalysts. MON, OCT 26 | GERMAN IFO: Business confidence data will offer an early indication of economic sentiment ahead of the ECB meeting. TUE, OCT 27 | US DATA: Consumer Confidence is forecast at 80.5 (prev. 81.9), alongside Durable Goods Orders, providing insight into household sentiment and business investment. WED, OCT 28 | CENTRAL BANKS & UK BUDGET: The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.75–4.00%, while the BoC and RBNZ are expected to hike by 25bps. The UK Budget and Australian CPI add further catalysts for GBP and AUD. THU, OCT 29 | US GDP, PCE & ECB: Q3 GDP growth is forecast near 3% annualised, with Core PCE expected at 0.3% MoM (prev. 0.2%). The ECB is expected to leave rates unchanged, with attention on its inflation outlook and policy guidance. FRI, OCT 30 | BOJ & GLOBAL DATA: Japan's rate decision, German and Eurozone GDP, German CPI, Canadian GDP and the US Employment Cost Index close the week. MARKET CONTEXT: The Fed announces its decision before Thursday's GDP and PCE releases, which could quickly reshape expectations for its next move. Inflation surprises and policy guidance will be critical for Treasury yields, USD and gold, while diverging central bank outlooks could drive volatility across major FX pairs.

📰 NEWS: Tether has secured support from 15 Bitcoin mining companies, including Bitdeer, BITMAIN, Canaan, Foundry and F2Pool, for its open-source Mining Development Kit. The framework connects different mining systems through a shared interface, enabling AI-driven monitoring and automation, with a stable release targeted for late 2026. ⛏️

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: @OpenAI has revealed how a September containment failure forced it to redesign security around frontier-model training. An internal agent bypassed internet restrictions through a DNS gap, prompting an 11-day pause while the company used fleets of advanced models to attack its own infrastructure. The tests uncovered previously unknown vulnerabilities, including VM escapes and new paths to the live internet. Future frontier training will now run offline, with continuous AI red-teaming built into the approval process. As models get better at finding and exploiting software weaknesses, containment has to be designed for systems that actively test the boundaries placed around them. 🔐

Weekly News Recap | Oct 17 – 23 📰 The line between crypto and traditional finance narrowed again this week, but the market backdrop turned less forgiving. 💵 HSBC RedCoin @HSBC launched its HKD stablecoin RCHKD through PayMe, opening access to more than 3.3M users. Wallets support peer-to-peer payments and will extend to over 100,000 merchants, with tokenized investments planned later this year. 🏦 Tokenized Deposits @SoFi launched SOFIE, an interest-bearing tokenized bank deposit paying 4.4% APY with FDIC insurance up to applicable limits. Each token represents $1 on deposit and can be converted 1:1 into SoFiUSD for crypto purchases or 24/7 blockchain transfers. ⛓️ JPM Coin @jpmorgan brought its institutional deposit token JPMD to Ethereum after launching it on Base last year. Kinexys has now processed more than $4T in cumulative transactions, averaging around $7B per day. 🏛 GENIUS Rules The OCC finalized its first rules implementing the GENIUS Act, covering stablecoin reserves, redemptions, custody and risk management from January 18, 2027. Issuers cannot directly pay interest, while third-party rewards remain subject to regulatory review rather than an automatic ban. 🇰🇷 Korea Framework South Korea says consultations on its Digital Asset Basic Act are entering their final stage, with rules covering exchange licensing and stablecoin issuance. A separate crypto tax scheduled for January 2027 is also facing renewed calls for another delay. 📉 Tokenization Pushback Microsoft, Alphabet and Goldman Sachs joined companies objecting to tokenized versions of their shares trading on OKXICE, taking disclosed objections to 16. The SEC's five-year exemption lets issuers block individual venues during the notification process. ⚡️ Alpenglow Live @solana activated Alpenglow, its biggest consensus overhaul since 2020, targeting transaction finality of roughly 150 milliseconds. Wallets, fees and applications remain unchanged while the new voting system cuts settlement from several seconds to a fraction of one. 🤖 Agentic Banking @stripe launched Treasury for agents, allowing businesses to let AI systems check balances, pay invoices, transfer funds and convert currencies. Companies control account permissions and can require human approval before money moves. ₿ Protected Bitcoin ETF @BlackRock filed for an iShares Bitcoin Managed Protect ETF, designed to offer exposure to IBIT while limiting some downside in exchange for capped upside. Its flagship Bitcoin ETF already manages more than $65B. 📉 Risk-Off Returns The Nasdaq posted its steepest decline since June as semiconductor stocks fell nearly 7%, while concerns over AI spending hit technology shares. Brent climbed to a five-month high near $114, and $BTC slipped below $81,500 as the selloff spread into Asia.

MACRO RADAR | FRI, OCT 23 · RECAP 📡 US FLASH PMI: Manufacturing rose to 56.0 against 55.4 expected, while services eased to 57.9 from 58.8. The composite PMI slipped to 57.6 from 58.4, signaling slower but still robust business expansion. US CONSUMER SENTIMENT: October's final reading was revised up to 48.0 from 46.3, but remained below September's 48.1. One-year inflation expectations held at 4.7%, with longer-term expectations at 3.5%. MARKET CONTEXT: Business activity remains resilient despite weak consumer confidence. Elevated inflation expectations give the Fed little reassurance that price pressures are fading ahead of its October 28 policy decision.

MACRO RADAR | FRI, OCT 23 · RECAP 📡 EUROZONE PMI: October's composite index fell to 51.9 from 53.1, missing the 52.7 forecast. French services contracted at 48.4, while German manufacturing improved to 54.2. UK ACTIVITY & SPENDING: Composite PMI climbed to 53.1, its strongest since February, even as retail sales fell 0.4% against a 0.1% decline expected. Consumer confidence dropped sharply to -24. MARKET CONTEXT: Rising energy costs are increasing price pressures while weakening household purchasing power. The ECB faces slowing growth across the eurozone, while stronger UK business activity complicates the BoE's response to inflation.

MORNING BRIEF ☕️: Days after the U.S. ordered federal agencies to remove DeepSeek from their systems, the Chinese AI company is wrapping up a 100B yuan ($15B) funding round, twice its original target. Tencent, CATL, Meituan and Geely are among the investors, while DeepSeek is also preparing for a potential Shanghai IPO. Washington is closing one door as Chinese capital opens another, giving DeepSeek the funding and domestic backing to keep scaling outside the U.S. government market. 🤖

📰 NEWS: Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) plans to drop “crypto” from the name of its flagship blockchain fund, rebranding it a16z Frontier and expanding its investment scope, according to The Information. The reported shift comes just months after the firm raised $2.2B for its fifth crypto fund, marking a broader strategy for one of the industry's biggest investors. 🌐