I regret to inform that this is all very simple, and dumb: since 2017, Putin has been trying to goad Trump into seizing Venezuela and Greenland. Putin thinks this will cement the “Monroe Doctrine” as US policy, which he thinks will drive US disengagement from Ukraine. This effort failed in 2019 because it was blocked by John Bolton, Fiona Hill, Rex Tillerson, and other cabinet officials who considered these proposals but found them unwise. Putin’s efforts to goad Trump resumed in 2025, first with renewed interest in Greenland, second with Venezuela. The Venezuela dangle worked, and there were no adults to stop it, and plenty of profiteers eager to help. Now he’s after Cuba and Greenland, which Putin thinks (again) will catalyze US disengagement in Ukraine, which he hopes will give him a freer hand there, as well as reorient US power in the Western Hemisphere and away from Europe. That’s it. That’s what’s going on. Oil, minerals, peace prizes are all part of the dangle. But this is the whole ballgame.