It will be Friday before the final allocations of the 120 seats in Israel’s Knesset is certain as hundreds of thousands of votes —primarily those of deployed soldiers— are counted. Follow @AmitSegal for the latest hard news on that ongoing count. PM @Netanyahu continues as prime minister until a new government replaces him, with the full power he has held, even if another election or two or three more, are required to boost a different coalition of parties to 61 seats. The summary from @WSJ: “If the results hold with neither side commanding an outright majority, Netanyahu’s fate could come down to whether Israel’s president gives the prime minister or Eisenkot the first chance to form at least a 61-seat Knesset majority. In either case, a scenario many experts foresee is a hung parliament that ultimately heads to another round of elections, with Netanyahu hanging on as a caretaker premier. Early results had Netanyahu’s right-wing Likud party with around 28 seats and Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar with around 21. The prime minister’s bloc was in the lead with around 56 seats, compared with around 48 for his challengers.” “Many experts” just finished blowing the predictions on the ouster of Netanyahu. Best to wait and see how the soldiers vote and whether there’s 61 votes for anyone even if one of the two Arab parties, which did very well, support a new government. Right now it appears that the Arab-Israelis’ “Joint List” —the anti-Zionist coalition that includes the Communists etc— is not going to be joining any government and that Ra’am, an Islamist party but one which recognizes Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish State, does not have enough seats to get any proposed coalition to 61. Defections from the “anti-Bibi” coalition will have to occur to move Netanyahu’s block to the 61 seats a new four-year government needs to be formed. Weeks of behind-the-scenes maneuvering ahead. There is no doubt that if the IRGC attacks Israel in this period, the IDF would respond as directed by the sitting Netanyahu government. There is also little doubt that Israel will continue to be on call if the U.S. requests assistance in renewed attacks on the IRGC and its defense-industrial base, including Pickaxe Mountain. The loser last night? The IRGC which wanted Netanyahu gone. He’s not going anywhere for at least many months.