Bulk rates held flat in August. $5.01/mi, +0.2%. Boring headline. But the interesting number isn't the rate. It's the capacity gauge, which just climbed for the third straight month.The rate is the last thing to move. Capacity moves first.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
Freight rates out of Texas, Oklahoma & New Mexico jumped 11.6% in July. Up 47% over six months.
Notice where that is: right on top of the Gulf refining complex.
When the energy-belt regions move first, the market is telling you what's really driving it.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
Bulk rates rose 1.4% in July.
Bulk volume fell 14.2%.
Rates up while freight is down isn't a recovery.
It's a cost push. The floor got dragged up by diesel, not pulled up by demand.
Know the difference or misprice August.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
Diesel just jumped 13.8% in a single month to $5.31/gal.
Third straight weekly increase. Up 73 cents in three weeks.
Middle East conflict flared, Hormuz got choppy, crude ran at $90.
When fuel moves like this, freight rates don't get a vote.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
For the first time since spring, bulk freight rates went UP.
Median back to $5.00/mi, +1.4% in July.
Everyone's going to call it a recovery.
It isn't. And the reason why is the most important thing in this month's data.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
Bulk load volume is down 29% this month.
Sounds like the floor fell out.
It didn't. It's mid-July, between planting and harvest, with a holiday week baked in. Weekly counts are near normal.
Context beats panic every time.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
Bulk rates have cooled for months.
They're still sitting 18% above where they were a year ago.
"Down" and "weak" are not the same word. Confuse them and you'll misprice the entire back half of the year.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
Soybean meal +21%.
Coal +11%.
Ag base +14%.
Soybeans -13%.
Grain -5%.
Last month every bulk commodity moved together. This month they scattered.
That's not chaos. That's a market waking back up.
bulkloads.com/bulk-insights/
For three months, bulk freight rates fell.
In July, they basically stopped. Down 0.8% after June's 4.5% drop.
The bleed leveled off.
Sometimes the biggest signal in the data is the month where nothing happens.
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Something rare happened in bulk freight last month.
Every single commodity rate fell at the same time. Grain, feed, aggregates, all of it.
Demand moves commodity by commodity, so when the whole board drops in lockstep, it's not demand.
It's one cost coming out of the system.
Rates fell 4.5% in June and every bulk commodity dropped with them.Soft market, or just cheaper diesel working through the system?(It's the diesel. Fuel is down 12.7% on the month. But I'm curious what you're seeing on your lanes.)
Diesel is down 12.7% in ONE month.
Carriers should be paying close attention.
Because the same drop that helps you at the pump is quietly pulling your rate floor down with it. Bulk freight rates fell 4.5% in June, right alongside it.
Cheap diesel isn't a gift. It's a signal.
The best truck specs aren't always about saving money.
They're about making life better for the driver. 🚛
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