CNAS

Next week, the US, Russian and Chinese leaders are set to meet in their first-ever trilateral summit. Is a new Yalta in the offing? 1. Europeans and others worry it might be. In February 1945, the Yalta Conference confirmed Germany's division and symbolized rival spheres of influence in Europe. Most European leaders weren’t at the table – but their countries were on it. 2. Its repercussions linger eight decades later. Yalta became synonymous with great powers carving up smaller ones, with little or no say from the people whose freedom is at stake. 3. Hence today’s concern about a Yalta 2.0. In Shenzhen next week, will Trump, Putin and Xi – the new Big Three – divide the world into spheres of influence? Will they whip out presidential Sharpies, pore over a global map, and seal the fate of subject nations? 4. The Russians might like that. Their chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, said the aim is a “comprehensive security system in Europe” that would become “a new, modern Yalta and Potsdam.” Beijing has made no similar suggestion but has made clear it wants a dominant position in the Asia-Pacific region. 5. Others certainly wouldn’t. As Volodymyr Zelensky put it, “I really don’t want this to be Yalta 2, 3, 4,” with a redistribution of influence. 6. The concern is natural but unnecessary. No Yalta 2.0 is in the offing. It’s not only unlikely that the three leaders will divide the world, it’s impossible. 7. For starters, Yalta reflected where Soviet and Allied troops stood in a war-shattered, defeated Europe. Soviet domination of central and eastern Europe came from Moscow undermining the Yalta agreements more than embracing them. 8. Today is wildly different. Trump, Xi and Putin are not divvying up territory under their military occupation. And the countries affected would not simply accept domination by a great-power neighbor. Ukraine is example enough, but ask the rest of Europe - or Japan, Australia, Taiwan. 9. So no new Yalta. What else, then? Trump wants to talk nuclear arms control – New START has expired, after all, and China was never party to it. Putin wants Ukraine on the table. 10. Neither aspiration will go anywhere. China won’t talk nukes with the US, at least until it gets much closer to parity. Putin may repeat his Ukraine demands, but the Abu Dhabi talks showed they’ve hardly changed in nearly five years – and they remain unacceptable to everyone else. 11. The likeliest outcome is nothing substantive: some pleasantries, some photo ops and maybe a commitment to meet again sometime. 12. So why do it at all? The symbolism. A gathering like this puts the “big” in Big Three and demonstrates superpower leadership – especially for Trump after his midterm losses. But while Yalta is still remembered 81 years later, Shenzhen will be forgotten, and sooner rather than later.