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ETH/BTC is back at our range lows.
IF $BTC can hold it's ground and climb to 90k+ from current levels, would expect relative outperformance on $ETH and a number of other alts. This would send $ETH to $3,000+.
Once again, this assumes BTC is climbing and is less relevant if BTC continues to bleed, but I think this has a decent chance of occurring or else I wouldn't be sharing.
For more context, recommend watching the vid in the quoted tweet if you haven't already.
CRV got hammered much harder than $BTC on this recent drop, but we are now at previously untested local demand on CRV/BTC after cleaning up a bunch of marginal higher lows.
This is where we should start shifting back to relative outperformance against $BTC.
TLDR; if Bitcoin reverses back to the upside from here, CRV should outperform to the upside, if BTC continues down from here, CRV should not drop as much.
In other words- the worst of the damage is likely done for $CRV (and $CVX) with this recent drop.
More context in the video in the quoted tweet- recommend watching if you haven't already.
Trying to record a vid to share my current thoughts but out of town and only have my laptop, running into some errors so bear with me...
And over half a million $CVX. But he is sold out of both now, so that's the silver lining I guess. The definition of forced selling.
Unfortunately our .29 level on $CRV was officially breached, which means our structure has officially shifted for the first time since our .20 lows.
As per my last post: "Moving below .29 indicates we have a completed 5 wave move off the lows, which is still bullish, but allows for a deeper retracement below .29 before a full on reversal."
With the origin of this 5 wave move being at .20, this is now our new "invalidation" point on HTF.
Based on what I'm seeing across the board, I am not seeing any signs of an immediate reversal on majors yet, so my expectation is that we are probably going to go a bit lower before we are ready for a reversal, both on $CRV and on $BTC, $ETH and likely most everything else.
That said, I am just now getting a chance to look at the charts (was driving earlier), so will share more updates shortly.
For now, I'd avoid aggressive entries across the board and wait for the dust to settle a bit.
I've been stopped out of pretty much all my levered longs at this point, but of course spot holdings will remain untouched.
This is absolutely a possibility, but it would also change the general structure of the move up on $CRV.
Holding above .29 is literally the most bullish possibility structure-wise (series of 1-2's) and I've explained in multiple times why this is my primary expectation.
Moving below .29 indicates we have a completed 5 wave move off the lows, which is still bullish, but allows for a deeper retracement below .29 before a full on reversal.
The closest example I can give you of this $BTC back at 24-25k before impulsing aggressively to new ATH at 65k+ and ultimately 100k+:
At the time, MANY were calling for a move down to 21-22k on $BTC, and I repeated multiple times that I was not expecting the 24k lows to be breached and that until/unless they were people were jumping the gun calling for lower targets. I even placed a public options bet on the expected aggressive expansion assuming the 24k lows wouldn't be breached and turned 10k into 240k when the thesis was proved correct (see here: teapaw.org/CredibleCrypto/status/…). The lows were never breached, and what followed was one of the most aggressive rallies in Bitcoin's history.
We are seeing the SAME potential structure today on $CRV. The expectation is, once again, that the lows at .29 will be defended, just as the lows at 24k on $BTC were defended.
If the lows at .29 are breached, then it would be similar to the lows at 24k on $BTC having been breached- not the end of the world (or the higher TF bullish bias), but a shift in structure that has broader implications (no "most bullish" 1-2, 1-2 structure and instead a completed 5 wave move off the .20 lows, which allows for a deeper, longer correction (below .29 but still above .20) before we are ready for the next impulsive/expansion wave to the upside).
So yes, it is possible that we take out the .29 lows, dip into demand at .24-.28, and then see an impulsive move back up, BUT that is not my primary expectation atm because based on the expectation of significant outperformance on CRV (which in turn is based on chart pairings against majors and overall structure) I do believe that we may be seeing a similar situation to $BTC at 24k's playing out at this time in which the .29 lows are defended, rather than breached (even if temporarily).
CrediBULL Crypto retweeted
Update: The current verified total frozen amount is around $3 billion.
Our teams continue to work closely with law enforcement, issuers, blockchain intelligence firms and industry partners to trace and freeze additional assets.
We will only share confirmed figures and will provide further updates as more verified information becomes available. User funds are safe.
CrediBULL Crypto retweeted
User funds are safe.
Binance will cover all hacking losses.
Deposits and withdrawals are temporarily suspended while our team conducts security checks, freezes funds, and works with law enforcement.
We will share a full post-mortem once the investigation is complete. Please rely only on official Binance channels for updates.
CrediBULL Crypto retweeted
We are aware of differing figures circulating publicly regarding the amount frozen, including references to $1.8 billion.
For clarity, the current verified total frozen is $2.54 billion. This figure may continue to increase as our teams work closely with law enforcement, issuers, blockchain intelligence firms and industry partners to trace and freeze additional assets.
We will only share confirmed figures and will provide further updates as more verified information becomes available.
CrediBULL Crypto retweeted
Our teams are aware of reports of a potential security issue and are actively investigating. User funds are completely safe.
Our security teams are reviewing all relevant information with urgency, and we will provide updates through official Binance channels as soon as we have verified information.
Users should remain cautious of scams and should not trust unofficial links, messages, or requests for account information.
Looks like 1.7B of the hacked funds have been frozen, leaving a difference of 1-2B max.
As previously mentioned, Binance paid 4B to the US gov not too long ago, 1-2B of funds is a hit, but not a death blow.
Panic may be overblown.
If this was a hack, that is at least a third of the funds frozen which is good.
Bybit previously suffered a 1.4B hack a couple years ago, this one would eclipse that if the news is true.
No word from @binance yet.
That said, Binance is the largest crypto exchange in the world- and if this was a hack, they should be able to recover from it.
The previously settled lawsuits with the US Gov and the settled amount was over 4B, so while this would be the largest hack of a centralized exchange that we have seen, it's also not something to panic about.
Let's see as more news comes out.
Apparently a potential Binance hack in progress...keep calm folks. Need to see more details come to light.
I’m liking these new features on X. Have talked about doing periodic livestreams, might have to try some sort of periodic live chat sessions instead 👀
This is absolutely a possibility, but it would also change the general structure of the move up on $CRV.
Holding above .29 is literally the most bullish possibility structure-wise (series of 1-2's) and I've explained in multiple times why this is my primary expectation.
Moving below .29 indicates we have a completed 5 wave move off the lows, which is still bullish, but allows for a deeper retracement below .29 before a full on reversal.
The closest example I can give you of this $BTC back at 24-25k before impulsing aggressively to new ATH at 65k+ and ultimately 100k+:
At the time, MANY were calling for a move down to 21-22k on $BTC, and I repeated multiple times that I was not expecting the 24k lows to be breached and that until/unless they were people were jumping the gun calling for lower targets. I even placed a public options bet on the expected aggressive expansion assuming the 24k lows wouldn't be breached and turned 10k into 240k when the thesis was proved correct (see here: teapaw.org/CredibleCrypto/status/…). The lows were never breached, and what followed was one of the most aggressive rallies in Bitcoin's history.
We are seeing the SAME potential structure today on $CRV. The expectation is, once again, that the lows at .29 will be defended, just as the lows at 24k on $BTC were defended.
If the lows at .29 are breached, then it would be similar to the lows at 24k on $BTC having been breached- not the end of the world (or the higher TF bullish bias), but a shift in structure that has broader implications (no "most bullish" 1-2, 1-2 structure and instead a completed 5 wave move off the .20 lows, which allows for a deeper, longer correction (below .29 but still above .20) before we are ready for the next impulsive/expansion wave to the upside).
So yes, it is possible that we take out the .29 lows, dip into demand at .24-.28, and then see an impulsive move back up, BUT that is not my primary expectation atm because based on the expectation of significant outperformance on CRV (which in turn is based on chart pairings against majors and overall structure) I do believe that we may be seeing a similar situation to $BTC at 24k's playing out at this time in which the .29 lows are defended, rather than breached (even if temporarily).
Yup. All my lower timeframe updates are for active traders and can be ignored by spot holders/buyers. This will always be the case.
CrediBULL Crypto retweeted
All routes lead to Curve. Now from @StellarOrg, too.
stellar.curve.finance
news.curve.finance/curve-is-…
Alright folks, this is it for ethereum:0xd533a949740bb3306d119cc777fa900ba034cd52.
We lost our first potential bottom zone and this is now the 2nd (and final) one I've been referencing.
This is the 5th time we are trading at this level within this range, and every prior time it has held- so this is the big test.
Triple tap of our larger range in BLUE as pictured below is now in play.
Invalidation remains the same .29 level as it has during this entire range.
If .29 is going to hold, then this is, once again, the best R/R opportunity that we will get before $1+.
