DreadPiratesRob

Should you build a Fert Deck? 💩🌾 It costs 0.01 ETH, and Deed Staking opens today at 1PM UTC. So I analyzed the potential Fertilizer supply & demand scenarios. Here's the thought process 🐱🧵 ================== ⚠️ Disclaimer While I'm part of the Yield Fields team, this post is my own opinion, not the project's. 🔸 It's speculation 🔸 NOT financial advice 🔸 It only uses public info - the Whitepaper and @YieldFields_RH posts ================== 🌱 How much Fertilizer can there be? Only Fert Decks make Fertilizer. Each one makes 0.5/day per point of Fertility: 🌿 Common: 1,557 Deeds × 2.5 = 3,892.5/day ❄️ Rare: 888 × 3 = 2,664 ☣️ Epic: 555 × 3.5 = 1,942.5 ✨ Legendary: 222 × 4 = 888 🌌 Mythic: 111 × 4.5 = 499.5 If all 3,333 Deeds build a Deck, that's about 9,900 Fertilizer/day. Sounds like a lot, right? Let's look at the demand side of the equation next. ================== 🚜 How much could Deed owners use? Every wallet gets 1 free farm to plant on. And looking at the farm image in the Whitepaper, it seems a farm is a 5x5 grid that can fit 25 seeds, so let's use that as reference in our calculations (this may change, you'll see why it doesn't really matter as you read on...). Each crop can take up to 2 Fertilizer, each reducing grow time by 25%. Before staking opened, OpenSea showed 1,193 wallets holding Deeds. If we ONLY count those wallets and ignore ALL farmers without deeds: 🔸 2 on every slot, once a day: 59,650 a day, 6x the supply 🔸 Say only the rarer half of crops: 29,825 a day, 3x 🔸 Say only 1 crop in 4: 14,912 a day, 1.5x 🔸 Say only 1 crop in 10: 5,965 a day, 0.6x Rarer crops take longest to grow, so that's where Fertilizer saves the most time. Since grow times are counted in hours, an active farmer can replant multiple times a day. Replanting twice a day doubles every line above. ================== ⚖️ So how does the supply/demand imbalance look like? The average Deed owner holds ~3 Deeds. Assuming 100% of Deeds build Fert decks, the weighted average Fertilizer = ~8.3 Fertilizer a day. That covers about 4 crops a day with if they want to maximize grow speed (i.e. 2 Fertilizer per crop). So supply runs out once Deed owners fertilize more than about 4 crops a day each. And that's before a single farmer without a Deed wants some. And they can only buy it from Deed owners. And Deed owners can only export half their Fertilizer per 24hrs. ================== 🧮 Does the 0.01ETH building cost pay for itself? A Meadow (common) produces the least, so let's start there. After the 5% royalty on Fertilizer sales, its Deck recoups its 0.01 ETH cost (1 ETH = $2,252): 🔸 In a week if Fertilizer sells above ~0.0006 ETH (~$1.35) 🔸 In a month above ~0.00014 ETH (~$0.32) A Mythic makes 1.8x as much, so it recoups its costs in a week at ~0.00033 ETH (~$0.75). If you'd rather use it than sell it, a Common Deck makes 75 Fertilizer a month (~37 crops ripening in half the time). ================== What to watch out for next? 👀 There's no Fertilizer price yet. Export opens with staking, so the first OpenSea keep an eye out on how they trade over the next few days. With demand this far above supply, those lines look pretty easy to clear to me. A few more things in favour of building Decks: 🔸 The build fee goes into the Deeds' Root Cellars, so a slice of it is set aside for Deeds by Fertility (paid out when a Deed is burned) 🔸 Fertilizer never expires, so nothing you make goes to waste 🔸 It's highly unlikely that 100% of Deeds will build, which means lower-than-expected supply 🔸 Helps you with timing...(that's for you to figure out!) ================== ⚠️ What could go wrong 🔸 Fertilizer prices may be volatile (or even crash) depending on different players' incentives and/or farming demand 🔸 Not everyone will farm every slot. If owners fertilize fewer than ~4 crops a day each, supply catches up 🔸 Unstaking destroys the Deck - If you plan on flipping your Deed soon, you may not want to have additional sunk costs 🔸 Storage holds 3 days of output, so you'll miss out on production if it fills up 🔸 Rates and fees can change (the docs say so on every page) ================== 🐱 Paws' take If you're staking a Deed and plan to keep it, the Deck looks like the easiest decision to make in this phase. Even a Common only needs Fertilizer to sell for about $1.35 to cover the build in a week. If people are willing to pay tens (or hundreds) of dollars to farm, would they save the Fertilizer cost and lose an edge...? 😹💭 Numbers and perspective, not financial advice! Are you building one? 🐱