๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ, left-wing interventionist, avid watcher of US politics.๐Ÿ’žDating the wonderful @Geoplanetary๐Ÿ’ž (who drew my banner). DMs open, alt @ElpisVirtual, she/her.

Joined November 2020
Most State Senates held elections last November, although only the New Hampshire Senate changed partisan control. The maps in this thread show the district results, both at a national level and with greater detail for areas with smaller districts. The national map:
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This sample has the following preferencing behaviour (roughly): GRN/OTH primary are 72% ALP/17% LNP/11% ONP 3PP. ALP 3PP are 67% LIB/33% ONP 2PP. LNP 3PP are 69% ONP/31% ALP 2PP. ONP 3PP are 75% LIB/25% LAB 2PP.
Victorian (state) voting intention (three-party-preferred) ๐ŸŸฅ ALP: 44.5% ๐ŸŸง ONP: 29.5% ๐ŸŸฆ L/NP: 26% Roy Morgan | 13-16 Feb | n=2462
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Yeah, I don't think Dems are winning in Florida anytime this decade.
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With ~93% reporting, moderate Republican King-Hinds has almost certainly flipped the delegate's seat from retiring Democrat Gregorio Sablan; she leads with 37.7% to Democrat Ed Propst's 34.1% and Independent John Gonzales' 19.9%.
Northern Marianas: with 70-80% of the votes, the Congressional delegate race is 36.6% R - 34.6% D; Republican Kimberlyn King-Hinds is up in the early vote but trails in all election-day precincts so far. If I had to guess, she narrowly wins, but it could go either way.
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59/72 precincts: 52.5 R-47.0 D for delegate, 49.5 D-46.3 R for president, Quinata 0.6% behind. Moylan wins a second term.
39/72 precincts: 53.5% R - 46.0% D for delegate, 46.2% D - 43.1% R for the presidential poll, Quinata 1.0% behind.
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Northern Marianas: with 70-80% of the votes, the Congressional delegate race is 36.6% R - 34.6% D; Republican Kimberlyn King-Hinds is up in the early vote but trails in all election-day precincts so far. If I had to guess, she narrowly wins, but it could go either way.
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The territory's legislature is independent-dominated and will remain that way.
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39/72 precincts: 53.5% R - 46.0% D for delegate, 46.2% D - 43.1% R for the presidential poll, Quinata 1.0% behind.
First Guam delegate results (18/72 precincts counted): 54.3% R - 45.0% D
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First Guam delegate results (18/72 precincts counted): 54.3% R - 45.0% D
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Legislature (top-fifteen, at large) is 9R-6D, with seventh Democrat Roy Quinata 1.9% behind ninth Republican Shawn Gumataotao; this would be a chamber flip if it holds.
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Fun fact: 525,723,540 votes were cast for a single state legislative seat in 1964.
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If this tweet made it into your daily allowance, consider following @elpis on this site's likely replacement.
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(will hopefully contain more maps and less inactivity in future)
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I hope their house is located such that MARTA will subject it to eminent domain.
This quoted post is unavailable.
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You're not losing 15 seats, but you *are* losing both a Biden+15 seat and the one you pushed Mondaire Jones out of, which is actually more embarassing.
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The last time the out-party in a midterm failed to flip at least two gubernatorial elections was 1898. The last time they failed to flip *any* (which could still happen depending on the mail in NV) was 1866, where Republicans already held all but two of the seats up for election.
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Some outliers like AR and TN are due to uncontested districts in either year, and NY/MI/PA in particular should swing left with remaining votes, but overall it's clear the environment was neutral to mildly blue outside of Florida and the northeast.
Using the nearly-complete AP results for both states, the congressional ballot in Florida was R+17, a 12-point swing right from 2020; the congressional ballot in Ohio was R+13, a one-point swing *left*.
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Using the nearly-complete AP results for both states, the congressional ballot in Florida was R+17, a 12-point swing right from 2020; the congressional ballot in Ohio was R+13, a one-point swing *left*.
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It's D+8 in New York, a 17-point swing (!), though there seems to be outstanding vote mainly in NYC so this should improve somewhat.
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