
๐ฆ๐บ, left-wing interventionist, avid watcher of US politics.๐Dating the wonderful @Geoplanetary๐ (who drew my banner). DMs open, alt @ElpisVirtual, she/her.
Joined November 2020
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Most State Senates held elections last November, although only the New Hampshire Senate changed partisan control. The maps in this thread show the district results, both at a national level and with greater detail for areas with smaller districts.
The national map:
This sample has the following preferencing behaviour (roughly):
GRN/OTH primary are 72% ALP/17% LNP/11% ONP 3PP.
ALP 3PP are 67% LIB/33% ONP 2PP.
LNP 3PP are 69% ONP/31% ALP 2PP.
ONP 3PP are 75% LIB/25% LAB 2PP.
With ~93% reporting, moderate Republican King-Hinds has almost certainly flipped the delegate's seat from retiring Democrat Gregorio Sablan; she leads with 37.7% to Democrat Ed Propst's 34.1% and Independent John Gonzales' 19.9%.
Northern Marianas: with 70-80% of the votes, the Congressional delegate race is 36.6% R - 34.6% D; Republican Kimberlyn King-Hinds is up in the early vote but trails in all election-day precincts so far. If I had to guess, she narrowly wins, but it could go either way.
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I hope their house is located such that MARTA will subject it to eminent domain.
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You're not losing 15 seats, but you *are* losing both a Biden+15 seat and the one you pushed Mondaire Jones out of, which is actually more embarassing.
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Someone should hire this Bleu guy, seems like he's pretty good.
Replying to @NateSilver538
And here's my other alter ego, Nathaniel Bleu, making the case for Democratic overperformance.
fivethirtyeight.com/featuresโฆ
The last time the out-party in a midterm failed to flip at least two gubernatorial elections was 1898. The last time they failed to flip *any* (which could still happen depending on the mail in NV) was 1866, where Republicans already held all but two of the seats up for election.
Some outliers like AR and TN are due to uncontested districts in either year, and NY/MI/PA in particular should swing left with remaining votes, but overall it's clear the environment was neutral to mildly blue outside of Florida and the northeast.
Using the nearly-complete AP results for both states, the congressional ballot in Florida was R+17, a 12-point swing right from 2020; the congressional ballot in Ohio was R+13, a one-point swing *left*.






