Backing + building next-gen tech companies @plutus21cap / Newsletter: https://xitter.cf/t.co/L98auKLqD3 / Not investment advice: https://xitter.cf/t.co/4ME2u2gR77

Joined May 2012
OpenAI introduced the world to large language models, but history suggests that incumbents with proprietary data and distribution tend to capture the long-term value.
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Facing competition from both open-source ecosystems and closed-source platforms embedded in existing businesses, OpenAI is unlikely to become the dominant winner or a compelling long-term investment on its own.
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My 2-year-old son’s description of what I do for work: “Typing and talking to friends.” I mean… he’s not wrong 😅
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Most investors are missing the opportunities in the “fastest horse” at applying AI to each industry. Everyone is crowding the sellers of AI, when they should be investing in the buyers of AI using it to get operating leverage and growth.
There will be 2 types of companies in the future. Those that are great at AI, and those that used to be in business
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Just like Netflix vs Cisco, some of the best AI investments from here will benefit as AI becomes better and more affordable, benefiting from the high capex infrastructure buildout funded by other companies.
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The sellers of AI are preparing for one of the bloodiest and most capital intensive fights in history. Investors are rushing in, trying to pick the few that will still be standing at the end of this arms race.
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But what if the real opportunity lies with the buyers of AI? The companies using it to grow faster and unlock operating leverage? The buyers of AI will benefit from the sellers driving down prices to compete and pushing adoption higher.
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Why not bet on AI in a way that captures the impact while avoiding the hyper competitive hype cycle?
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Tracking new customer cohorts is my favorite way to predict the future of a business and industry
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The SEC voted to approve in-kind creations and redemptions for crypto ETPs sec.gov/newsroom/press-relea…
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I remind myself of this daily while investing in and building with disruptive technologies like blockchain and AI: Humans tend to overestimate the impact of a technology in the short term and underestimate its impact in the long term. (Amara’s Law)
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It is more likely that a company with data and distribution advantages develops an AI advantage than a company with an AI advantage develops data and distribution advantages.
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Data and distribution advantages take decades of time and resources to build, whereas AI capabilities can now be developed much faster and more affordably in an increasingly open-source environment.
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This is why we believe the largest impact from applied AI will occur within existing businesses rather than startups — and why we are investing our time, resources, and capital in this thesis.
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“Economists have predicted nine of the last five recessions.” - Warren Buffett
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“You cannot overtake 15 cars in sunny weather… but you can when it’s raining.” - Ayrton Senna, Formula 1 champion.
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This “acquisition” makes complete sense to me. In a world where technology is increasingly commoditized, they are buying the data and distribution of X.
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DeepSeek V3-0324 is one of the first examples of an open-source model outperforming all closed-source competitors on benchmarks. We continue to believe we are witnessing the complete commoditization of technology—technology alone is no longer a sustainable moat.
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In an increasingly open-source world, the only persistent advantages we see are data and distribution.
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The improvement in underlying AI models is incredible, obvious, and rapid week by week. Models are getting commoditized at the same rate, so selling AI models is still a terrible business. But being a buyer or user of AI models is an incredible business.
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