Professor of Technology and Geopolitics @Politics_Oxford. Director of @Ox_CyberSec. Author of "The Virtual Weapon" and "Striking Back."

Oxford, England
Joined March 2011
Europe used to consume extended deterrence. Now France is producing it: bilaterally and with Paris retaining sole nuclear use authority. That inverts the original American model wherein Washington offered a multilateral guarantee while sharing the delivery. I have my doubts about how credible European deterrence à la carte looks from Moscow.
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Just another destructive action that European leaders can safely dismiss because, after all, it was "hybrid." I increasingly suspect that eliciting the label is part of the intent: Moscow inflicts physical harm in a form it knows Europe has taught itself not to punish.
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"I am a geopolitics professor, and my field is in crisis" because AI solved its enduring problems. If only. Imagine machine intelligence improving nuclear deterrence theory or abolishing inadvertent war. Mathematics is exposed because its problems are fixed and their answers verifiable. Ours are not: AI activity can change the security problems it seeks to solve.
“I am a math professor, and my field is in crisis,” @stevenstrogatz writes of the introduction of AI into mathematics. He argues that his field is as much an expression of the human spirit as music and literature: theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/1…
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Lucas Kello retweeted
We have to accept the possibility that all mathematics could fall to AI within some months, however unsettling that might seem. ie AI better than all humans at math. That's because math is not fundamentally "hard"... primates are just really bad at it. We did not evolve to be efficient at manipulating math symbols. We think of Terrence Tao as a legend, and he is on a human scale -- multiple standard deviations better at math than me. But to an AI, going from Will-level ability to Terrence-level math ability just means something like a 10x bigger context window, 10x bigger RL run, and 10x more test-time compute. Solving math in the past seemed to require some creative human spark we couldn't understand, but it's increasingly looking more like a mechanical search process over symbols. The aura and mystique mathematicians maintained for millennia can be reframed as them being extremely talented at this mechanical process. They can't compete with an alien creature trained exactly for this purpose, with compute specs far beyond Terrence. By 2027 we'll be cranking out mathematical beauties each morning like Alan Turing cranking out Enigma codes before breakfast. We'll still be bottlenecked by compute for a few years, so the big discoveries will come gradually -- those will take the most computation. Is this sad? Well like software engineering, those people who enjoy it for love of the craft or for their unique abilities compared to other humans will feel diminished. But those who love it for the end results will relish in a golden age of math. Humans will still be the ones mapping the mathematical landscape. The AIs will act like the helicopters taking us wherever we want to go. You gotta pay to ride in compute. You could map different human intellectual activities to whether it's "hard" in a computational sense. Human-level chess is easy, that's why computer solved it early. Moving limbs in physical space however is very hard. We're good at it bc we benefited from hundreds of millions of years of evolution. Software engineering is somewhere in the middle, because it's intertwined with a messy complex physical world filled with computationally hard emotions and group dynamics. So that's why weirdly we'll soon have AIs that dominate all humans on math, and yet we won't fully trust them as software engineers.
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“Fears of attack [by Russia] can be the attack itself.” A splendid line by @BadBalticTakes (echoing @NATSEC09).
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The purist author in me agrees. But what happens when AI use in academic writing becomes unpoliceable? The pragmatic author says the profession must adapt. That will require a new code of authorship combining novel human reasoning with agentic support. Fusion, not exclusion, is the plausible future.
Excellent piece by @Vermeullarmine on the unsatisfactoriness of allowing AI into the scholarly writing process: thenewdigest.substack.com/p/… Academia needs a zero-tolerance policy on AI writing posthaste if the profession is to maintain any integrity. Disclosure policies are not at all adequate.
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By the time the Ukrainian military fielded its expensive Western tanks, cheap drones had rendered them obsolescent. Yet another example of how quickly military technologies are changing. Pay close attention to the battlefield in Ukraine: it reveals the future of war. nytimes.com/2026/08/25/world…
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“Hybrid warfare” is a muddled concept in the strategic lexicon. If it combines nonviolent activity such as a cyberattack with a violent act, “hybrid” is superfluous: the attacker has crossed the war line. If it denotes such activity without a violent act, “warfare” is superfluous: the attacker remains below the war line. Perhaps the term is so popular because it captures so much while saying so little. And perhaps it is time for a moratorium on this elastic and contradictory term.
What is “hybrid” about a direct military attack on a NATO & EU member? Enough with the euphemisms the EU and NATO leaderships hide behind to avoid having to address the issue head-on and to take decisions you fear having to take. This is not leadership. This is cowardice.
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Kõik Venemaaga piirnevad riigid ja nende juhid peaksid järgima @JarnoLim hoiatusi. Lugege palun, @StenbockiMaja
Suomen on syytä varautua jo nyt syksyn mahdolliseen kehityskulkuun: Venäjän uuteen laajaan mobilisaatioon ja sitä seuraavaan maastapakoon. Ensimmäinen merkki ei välttämättä ole Putinin puhe vaan se, että venäläiset miehet alkavat lähteä hyvissä ajoin maasta. 1/6
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Sanctions can’t bite if they don’t sink their teeth into the Russian war machines’s vital supply chains.
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Whatever your intellectual or political stance on the US-China AI race, and on the competing model paradigms within it, @GrahamTAllison’s provocative essay is worth reading.
The United States is betting the house on winning the artificial intelligence race with China. @GrahamTAllison warns that China may already be winning. Read for free: foreignpolicy.com/2026/08/04…
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I look forward to reading this latest gem by @MarkGaleotti.
My @PenguinUKBooks book HOMO CRIMINALIS is now out in paperback: why not find out why the FT called it "the readable, scary, fun beach read of new crime literature"? PS: the Estonian, Spanish, Dutch, French, Italian and Portuguese translations are also available - more to come
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Lucas Kello retweeted
🚨 NEW: The teenagers who hacked three UK Government departments say it was "stupid easy" "We merely do it for fun and exposure. We just have a passion for hacking" [@billcurtis0]
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Lucas Kello retweeted
It's not just cultural anthropology: The politicization and postmodern obscurantism of the field of sociology is running the discipline into the ground (though some those quoted in the article - al Gharbi, Redstone, McAffree -- are fabulous). | The study of people has a people problem. wsj.com/us-news/education/is… via @WSJ
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A plausible contrarian view defying reductive assumptions about Russia’s military threat to Europe: “An attack on Germany would be more important for Russia strategically and propagandistically than getting bogged down in border fighting with NATO over the Suwałki Gap or Estonia’s Narva. It would also be easier to carry out, because pro-Russian sympathies there are strong and the will to resist the threat is weak.” @KoortErkki balticsentinel.eu/8442745/in…
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Lucas Kello retweeted
My debut in the letters section. Grateful to ⁦@TheEconomist⁩ for publishing it. economist.com/letters/2025/1…
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