Always optimise for context prediction market Data / Research Curator @byPredicted
Joined July 2010
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some of my favorite slides from the Predicted Q2 prediction market report that @PetBerisha and i just released.
after $111bn in notional volume, the race in event contracts is getting clearer: the biggest players want to own distribution, brokerage, exchange, and clearing.
The recent @itomarkets aquisition
Omar retweeted
if I listened to this advice I’d still be in a job I hate and would dread waking up every morning
if you’re young and have no dependencies you should go all in and take risk
go live somewhere cheap, reduce burn and get to work
nobody else is going to do it for you
flood's trading partner was asked how he'd turn $100k into $1 million. his answer: "get a job"
kyle soska says a $100k portfolio is too small to devote your entire working life to compounding.
at $1 million, his answer changes. keep living costs under control, take smaller opportunities and wait for the rare trade worth sizing up.
people do often underestimate how capital intensive trading is.
Paul Atkins is a bull
🚨NEW: The SEC has approved @Cboe to list binary options tied to KPIs (key performance indicators) reported by public companies, including @coinbase, @RobinhoodApp and @MARA.
The contracts let traders take yes/no positions on metrics like Coinbase trading volume, Marathon’s BTC production and Robinhood’s customer and revenue numbers.
Robinhood is expected to be the first retail broker to offer them.
For crypto, this creates a new way to trade crypto-linked company performance beyond betting directly on $BTC’s price. The SEC approved this specific securities-options structure, while leaving room for differently structured contracts to fall under CFTC jurisdiction.
@SECPaulSAtkins called it “a new spirit of harmonization, innovation, and investor choice.”
Good morning.
have already done 3 hours of breathing work.
3 coffees
3 back flips
3 front flips
3 ice baths to start the day.
If you're a Manchester United fan, don't watch them play Football; it will only make you depressed. It's better to just relive the good times.
The times from before, when the owners were not bleeding the club dry.
Does featuring Sydney Sweeney = being able to raise at a 2 billion valuation?
@Novig are rumoured to be raising new funding at a valuation of up to $2 billion, four times the $500 million they hit eight months ago.
Most of their $105.4 million funding in total so far has come from:
1) $18 million Series A in August 2025
2) $75 million Series B, led by Pantera Capital, in February 2026.
To put that in context, Kalshi have raised about $2.7 billion and Polymarket about $2.9 billion across all their rounds, and both are valued above $20 billion.
Novig have raised more than any other prediction market we track, with ProphetX next at $35 million.
If you read our Novig piece last month, you'll know they only opened nationwide on 4th August 2026 and crossed $1 billion in notional volume on 12th September 2026.
They have kept going since, trading $484 million in the week to 3rd October 2026, up 17% on the week before.
Novig credit the Sydney Sweeney campaign for a lot of that.
In the 20 days either side of its launch in early September 2026, trading volume rose nearly 94% and first-time depositors rose more than 218%.
"We have to be willing to take outsized risk relative to the size of the company, doing that in a responsible way, of course," said co-founder Jacob Fortinsky.
The round hasn't been confirmed yet, but it could be before the end of 2026.
More insights like this in the link below:
Omar retweeted
Brainfood went and did a little rebrand.
I hope you like it?
(Play the video with sound!)
The first time I heard the phrase “Fintech is Dead,” I got a little offended. A little hurt. I mean, this was the thing I, we, attached a professional identity to, a sense of community and a shared enjoyment of the idiosyncratic weirdness that is technology in financial services in 2026. I wondered: how can it be dead when it’s only 4% finished?
But over time, I became convinced that what got us here won’t get us where we’re going. There are no trillion-dollar fintech companies after all.
So, last Thursday I published an essay arguing that fintech is dead as an investment category because the technologies that made “fintech” are table stakes now. A mobile-first neobank, running on the cloud, or an API-first infrastructure won’t disrupt the status quo. It will take something else.
Speak to any investor, and you’ll hear a similar thing: an identity crisis, but a recognition that the financialization of compute, payments companies routing AI tokens, and the wave of tokenization coming to Wall St. show another phase is coming.
Today’s massive companies, and tomorrow’s giants, are all leaning into AI and tokenization to solve new problems in new ways.
So Fintech Brainfood is now Brainfood.
But don’t worry, Brainfood will still hit your inboxes every Thursday and Sunday. Thursday Rants make sense of the big themes in tech and finance, while Sunday gives you news, 4 new companies, and some reading recommendations.
But now we’re doing more too. A bigger brand to bring together Tokenized, Brainfood, and the work the team has been doing behind the scenes:
- Brainfood Media, which encompasses all of our media properties.
- The Brainfood podcast, relaunching tomorrow with a HUGE guest. Also on YouTube.
- Tokenized, the podcast on stablecoins and tokenization with Head of Crypto @ Visa Cuy Sheffield. Now part of Brainfood Media.
- Predicted, a newsletter on the business of prediction markets, created by my cofounder Pet Berisha. Our fastest-growing media property is up 150% in subscribers in the last 8 weeks…
- Brainfood Advisory, co-led by co-founder Jeff Tijssen, formerly global head of fintech at Bain. Because an adult needs to help me, help you.
We even got a swanky new homepage: brainfood.xyz/
(Would love feedback! Please reply with thoughts)
And if you want to see us in person… we’ll all be at NerdCon in San Diego (I do not apologize for this plug).
So that’s Brainfood 2.0. Bigger. A few more people.
And a lot more to come.
ST.
PS. The essay is here if you want to tell me where I'm wrong. I'd like that.
lnkd.in/ebmv4BXc
PPS. Check out the audio in this video 🤓