Founder of https://teapaw.org/t.co/KuN5X0b1UB, and https://teapaw.org/t.co/ahIeuy0uhU. Co-host of the Market Huddle podcast, Daily Youtube market updates @Patrick_Ceresna
Lisboa, Portugal
Joined November 2012
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Gold large-spec longs fell 13,418 contracts before Friday’s metals rout.
Silver and platinum positioning already sit at 0 on COTSignal’s one-year score. The next report could reveal a much deeper washout.
read the chart for yourself:cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
The Market Isn’t Positioned for This teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/2onAYrybl…
The midterms are here, but the biggest market surprise may not be the result everyone expects.
We’re breaking down the election scenarios, what’s already priced in, and which outcome could move stocks the most.
Back in May, oil collapsed into a market loaded with bullish exposure. Falling prices created forced sellers, and that liquidation helped turn a correction into a massacre. Today, oil is back near the same price zone, but the ownership structure is completely different. The bulls never returned, net positioning remains near the July washout, and gross shorts are at a five-year extreme. That does not mean oil cannot fall on a peace agreement—but it does mean weakness may increasingly create buyers through short covering rather than another wave of long liquidation. Positioning may not determine oil’s destination, but it can dramatically change the speed and violence of the journey.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Everything Could Change Tomorrow teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/2VNLANmYE…
Large specs are at 81 on the US Dollar, while the Euro is at 1 and the Aussie at 0.
That’s an extreme concentration in FX positioning.
At the same time, Bitcoin still sits at 77.
The big question now:
Is the dollar trade still gaining momentum — or getting dangerously crowded?
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=heatmap&…
WTI large specs cut longs and added shorts—just before crude ripped through $100.
Oil closed at $103.27.
Where are the longs?
Read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Notice What Just Happened to the AI Trade? teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1vJpPNMwQ…
The soy complex just shed 63,501 contracts of large-spec net exposure.
Yet soybean prices barely broke.
Positioning reset—or warning shot?
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Something Doesn’t Add Up About This Fed Pause teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1qxoNYlzk…
Large specs are extremely long the 2Y (93) and 5Y (89), while the 10Y sits down at 22.
At the same time, Nasdaq positioning is still heavily crowded at 93 while the S&P 500 is only 25.
That’s a huge split in conviction.
Traders are all-in on very different parts of the market — and that divergence is getting hard to ignore.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=heatmap&…
Copper’s one-year positioning score plunged 20 points as funds cut longs and added shorts.
Yet price barely moved.
When positioning cracks harder than price, pay attention.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
The Next 48 hours Could Change Everything teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1nxeLMNqm…
Patrick Ceresna📈📉 retweeted
The Widowmaker
Natural-gas positioning hit zero across the one-, three- and five-year scores. The price keeps breaking badly with warm weather.
This weeks positioning change wasn’t fresh shorting—longs quit while shorts covered.
Read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Natural-gas positioning hit zero across the one-, three- and five-year scores. The price keeps breaking badly with warm weather.
This weeks positioning change wasn’t fresh shorting—longs quit while shorts covered.
Read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
This COT report only caught the start of the metals washout.
Gold lost 8,158 spec longs. Silver’s one-year score hit zero as shorts built.
The worst came after Tuesday.
read the chart for yourself: cotsignal.com/#card=net&mark…
Elon Musk Just Issued a Dire Warning... teapaw.org/i/broadcasts/1NGaroLvP…
Patrick Ceresna📈📉 retweeted
This week @kevinmuir and @PatrickCeresna welcome to the show, Robert Mullen @MRAfunds Marathon Resource Advisors to discuss contrarian investing, portfolio hedging, long volatility, and why energy, copper, shipping, and other resource markets may be setting up for a major regime shift. youtu.be/pH6CR-5PclU
