Rain Newton-Smith

** NEW: Bloomberg Budget analysis ** — Labour MPs say Rachel Reeves has done enough to help her and Keir Starmer survive. Markets reacted positively. But on both fronts there’s little sign this was a turning point longer-term. — The OBR conclusion that the budget does nothing to help growth is damning. “The government’s growth mission is currently stalled,” says the CBI’s @RainNewtonSmith. — “When you carry on pretending that nothing has to be dealt with, it is uninspiring and pretty disappointing,” says top economist Jim O’Neill. The IoD’s Anna Leach says businesses will bear the burden. Even the Resolution Foundation expressed concerns about the credibility of Reeves’ fiscal plans. — Labour MPs on the left are the ones who seem happiest thanks to the two-child cap going and tax rises hitting the rich. It’s those on the right of the party who are less enthusiastic about the total lack of a growth plan. — @justinmadders: “I don’t think anyone is seriously speaking about an imminent leadership challenge. If the budget had landed badly it could have made a difficult situation worse, but it’s actually landed pretty well.” — Tribune rebels back it. Plus @alexsobel tells us it was a more Labour budget. Critic @NeilForPoole says it starts to address the cost-of-living. — Govt officials are cautiously optimistic about the initial reaction both in the markets and politically. One accepted Reeves' first two budgets had been difficult but argued she’s shown she’s stabilised the public finances, won over markets and is now starting to be able to implement Labour policies. They said she still has three more budgets until the next election where she can deliver better news, and MPs should keep their eyes on the prize. — But some who are typically pro-Starmer expressed disappointment at a budget they saw as treading water. One said it was smartly designed to get them through the winter but did little to arrest Britain's wider economic malaise. Another characterised it as tinkering and devoid of either a political or economic strategy. Others warned Reeves against managing decline, urging a bolder budget next year as time is slipping away. — A Starmer loyalist gave a two-word review that summed up the muted support offered by many in the party: "Basically fine." With top team @PhilAldrick @EllenAMilligan @LucyGJWhite @Joe_Mayes @WillStandring bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Britain’s top business group has urged Rachel Reeves not to put the country on a “road to certain decline” with a series of tax rises at the budget “Biggest fear is if we get the wrong choices on Wednesday, more short-term tinkering, more bold choices not made, more politics over growth,” says the CBI’s @RainNewtonSmith “We risk getting locked in a stop-start economy where large tax rises rear their head every year,” she said. “That is not the road to growth. That is a cycle of doubt and uncertainty, a road to certain decline.” Via @PhilAldrick @Joe_Mayes @EllenAMilligan bloomberg.com/news/articles/…