Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf) header
Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf) profile picture

The Labor Renaissance. #LongHumans

Joined March 2010
Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)Photo by Simon Khalaf (@Simonkhalaf)
89% of Children want Unlimited Ice Cream...
66% want Medicare for All 61% want a billionaire wealth tax 57% want a $20/hour minimum wage 63% want a data center moratorium 58% want to end military aid to Israel 73% want to ban super PACs 79% want a 10% credit card interest rate cap No more excuses. Democrats must deliver.
3
203
Time to build
BREAKING 🚨: Lumber Lumber falls to lowest price in more than 2 years 📉 🏡
191
wow!!!
One eye drop a day could allow people to ditch glasses forever. The FDA has approved VIZZ, the first eye drop of its kind to literally fix near vision. After about age 40, the lens inside the eye stiffens, and reading a menu or a phone gets harder. It's called presbyopia, and it affects almost everyone eventually. In 2025 the FDA approved VIZZ, a once-a-day eye drop made by LENZ Therapeutics that uses a drug called aceclidine. It works by shrinking the pupil to under 2 millimeters, creating a pinhole effect that brings close objects into focus without blurring distance vision. In clinical trials with hundreds of adults, near vision improved within 30 minutes and the effect lasted up to 10 hours. Earlier drops like Vuity mainly worked by squeezing the muscle that focuses the eye, which could cause brow aches and dimmer distance vision. VIZZ acts mostly on the pupil instead, and the company reported no serious treatment-related side effects across more than 30,000 days of use. That said, the drops don't cure presbyopia, since the effect wears off each day, and they need a prescription. Also, in trials about one in five users had eye irritation, 16% noticed dimmer vision and 13% had headaches, mostly mild and brief. Even so, for millions of people tired of hunting for their readers, it's a real new option worth asking an eye doctor about. source: LENZ Therapeutics. (2025, July 31). LENZ Therapeutics announces U.S. FDA approval of VIZZ (aceclidine ophthalmic solution) 1.44% for the treatment of presbyopia [Press release].
1
216
How to lose the 2028 elections in a tweet
Big Tech CEOs, Wall Street executives, and giant corporations should prepare to answer tough questions from the new Democratic majority in Congress and face meaningful consequences if they’ve broken the law.
1
1
487
They don't just see it, they feel it #FeelFlation teapaw.org/compose/articles/edit/…
Our health insurance is going up 25% for the exact same coverage next year with zero changes. Happening all over the US. Where health insurance is covered employers are just swallowing it; employees don't even see it.
1
168
can't agree more.
Democrats won Congress and are starting to talk policy. Their emerging agenda: expand federal healthcare spending while imposing new restrictions on AI. This combination is fiscally ruinous and we do not need to wait to see 7% yields on 10Y treasuries to reach this conclusion. Like it or not, AI is our engine for economic growth and expanding our tax base. Like it or not, AI is also our best shot at taming healthcare costs: automating administrative work, expanding clinicians’ capacity, and delivering more care without a proportional increase in expensive human labor. Look at how demanding the arithmetic already is. Even if real GDP grows 5% every year starting in 2027 - an extraordinarily strong growth assumption (~8% nominal) - and we add no new spending commitments, we'd STILL run a $400B deficit in 2035. This is an agenda that will lock young Americans into a debt burden that consumes decades of future prosperity: more taxes, more national income diverted to interest, and less room to save, invest, and build wealth as we age. If you are under the age of 50, think long and hard about your future. If you have children, think about the country they will inherit. A vote for this platform is a vote for leaving the next generation worse off than your own. Every policy decision entails tradeoffs and I didn't hear an outstanding alternative proposal in 2025/2026. But these are your views and you're over 50, you should be ashamed. If these are your views and you're under 50, you should spend some more time thinking about your views.
2
193
The democrats KNOW that any sudden loss in Data Centers will trade job loss in 2 years, the time they need the best number to have a shot at the executive branch. Except for Georgia, there will be performative actions at best. That doesn't relieve Silicon Valley from rebuilding their charm offensive Since "I will be a billionaire, but you will lose your job, and may die" didn't really land well with communities.
1
1
172
The @Affirm card growth is impressive -- @mlevchin has started a new model for credit "cards". I can't tell you how many "skeptics" he went against. I would call this perfect math meets perfect execution. More Math and less marketing. @jevgenijs I know Klarna touts higher card numbers, but looking at Scale and GMV, this takes the crown, no?
3
194
Sometimes, I really feel like Silicon Valley Execs are like little kids with expensive toys--- Look Ma, I got a start at school....
Have been receiving many messages like this... I want to say: The majority of the valley stands for humanist, pro-society values. We believe in building technology that supports the many. The loudest voices do not represent the majority, and we cannot let them define us.
1
158
We look at the them day to day @WorkWhileAI @BenoitSf and we do have the best "sectoral" labor market since 1969.
If you pay attention to numbers obsessively day-to-day you can miss the bigger picture. And the bigger picture is that this might be the best--or among the best--job markets we've ever had--as measured by delivering jobs for people that want them.
1
158
An excellent point by @EconBerger. I would rephrase 1. There is no labor market boom, there is sectoral shortage.
My big picture take: 1 - there's no labor market boom. it's a mild recovery. 2 - this is catchup after a weak Sep; alternative data was softer in Oct, so I don't expect the same strength next in next month's BLS report 2 - estab survey very strong; HH survey decent, not great
2
282
They are still talking about October—- @BenoitSf! We are in an elevated labor shortage market. (November)— 😱
JUST IN: A blowout jobs report. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October. That’s above expectations of ~65k. August and September also revised a lot higher. There was a big surge in professional and biz services hiring (+70k!), along with ongoing gains in healthcare and transportation Unemployment rate: 4.1% (down from 4.2% in September) Wage growth: 3.1% -->That’s below inflation for the 7th straight month, but it was stronger than expected.
1
1
2
263
... And they will all go down together. Can't stand the heat, don't get close to the kitchen. This is what happens when valuations are 1000x revenue(s), Capex is funded through off balance sheet debt, and losses are national sport versus a metric to track.
1
244
A turn around? I mean did AI crash and no one told us about it?
1
287
just for you @ejc3 :)
Replying to @EconBerger
2/ They are also going to be asking regularly (I think) about employment decisions attributable to AI. 1 data point so far: very few firms are changing their employment or hiring decisions due to AI. More are increasing than decreasing employment, but the reverse on new hiring
1
2
144
When you are in a hole, keep digging!
Democratic socialist Nithya Raman will defeat incumbent Karen Bass in the Los Angeles mayor's race, CNN projects. Follow live updates. cnn.it/4zwtwlJ
158
The people who wonder haven lives in Silicon Valley for decades. The others know it is an “and”. simonkhalaf.substack.com/p/c…
Everyone is wondering whether the model companies will eat the application layer. When people ask me, my answer is always the same. It’s “and,” not “or.” I believe share will concentrate to a handful of model companies at the platform layer. And dozens of AI application companies will emerge as winners too. I’ve seen this pattern before in the cloud. The era ended up with only a handful of hyperscalers: AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. Building cloud infrastructure was massively capital intensive, so only a few players had the capital and scale to afford it. AI models are the same. They require enormous amounts of compute (for training, for inference, and for research), which means the market will also likely consolidate to a handful of players. But the cloud also gave us many dozens of great software companies built on top of those platforms because every industry and use case needed its own purpose-built product. I believe AI will play out the same way. No - the models won't eat all the software application opportunities. Why? It's not because their models couldn't produce the code for the product. It's because driving diffusion of AI into the Enterprise, in particular, requires a great deal of functional or vertical expertise. And FDEs or the equivalent are needed - to help companies re-engineer first, and then the users to subsequently adopt. It turns out that the "last-mile delivery" of that AI diffusion won't come easily. Humans tend not to like change, so having someone there to make the change feel seamless / manageable is a key part of the solution. So, like the Cloud, it will be an "and," not an "or." If anything, the opportunity is even bigger this time (at both layers of the stack).
2
204