Pinned Tweet
Reminder, I don't look at any polling whatsoever or consider it at all in any of my analysis or modeling, because I just believe the industry is holistically unreliable and this is why. Here is the performance of the Real Clear Politics polling average (the best aggregator of public polling we have) in each cycle of the Trump era:
2016: underestimated Trump in every battleground state
2018: pretty accurate year
2020: worst performing year ever for RCP average (which goes back to 2000) comprehensively
2022: had generic congressional ballot right, but missed badly on several key races across the country
2024: underestimated Trump in every battleground state
Dude
The outcome of the Lions/Vikings game before the election is pretty much the new “Redskins Rule” btw
2006: Vikings W, Dems W
2008: Vikings W, Dems W
2010: Vikings W, GOP W (exception)
2012: Vikings W, Dem W
2014: Lions W, GOP W
2016: Lions W, GOP W
2018: Vikings W, Dem W
2020: Vikings W, Dem W
2022: Vikings W, Dem W (vs. expectations)
2024: Lions W, GOP W
2026: Lions W, ???
It’s truly amazing how different my feed is now that I’ve muted any words associated with any be777ng ma777ts.
Steve Deace retweeted
Democrat primary voters OUT-VOTED Republican primary voters in Texas early voting.
Early voting is over. 7.7 MILLION Texans voted, near-presidential turnout. In 2022, Republican primary voters finished early voting 565,133 ballots AHEAD of Democrat primary voters. In 2024, we finished 944,796 ahead. This year we head into Election Day 25,836 BEHIND. This is hard voter file data from @longhornderek, the best in the business. No polling. No modeling. Just facts.
Santa Anna thought the war was won at the Alamo. Then came San Jacinto. Texas is never decided by how the fight starts. It is decided by how we finish.
Here is what is left: 2.7 MILLION of the most likely voters in Texas have NOT cast a ballot. 886,000 of them are Republican primary voters. The communists have 596,000. That is a 289,717 vote advantage sitting on the sidelines, but it wins NOTHING unless those Republicans show up. The other 1.2 MILLION likely voters have no primary history at all. This election belongs to whoever shows up Tuesday.
Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America. When the foundation breaks, it ALL falls apart. When we lose Texas, we lose the USA.
GO VOTE to defend our liberty on Election Day, TUESDAY, Nov. 3. RAIN OR SHINE. 🇺🇸
Steve Deace retweeted
Iowa has PACKED THE HOUSE to see @POTUS today!
.@ZachLahn: "I'm not supposed to be here. I wasn't the 'establishment' choice, I was outspent by 30%, opposed at every single turn... but on June 2nd, when we won that primary, all of you said something different: That we are not going to listen to the special interests, corporate giants, and corrupt politicians who want to take away your voice."
Banger
How great the chasm that lay between us
How high the mountain I could not climb
In desperation, I turned to Heaven
And spoke Your name into the night.
Then through the darkness, Your loving kindness
Tore through the shadows of my soul.
The work is finished, the end is written
Jesus Christ, my living hope!
Wouldn’t it be something if this endorsement is the difference in saving a 51-49 GOP senate?
Wow.
And I can’t believe she would possibly do this if there wasn’t a real shot for Mike Rogers to win.
Steve Deace retweeted
This is a person who found visceral joy in watching Charlie Kirk be murdered. She's only sorry to learn her actions have consequences.
🚨#BREAKING: Isa Casahuga, the college student who wrote and read a poem celebrating Charlie Kirk’s m*rder has recorded an apology video.
It is, without question, the least sincere apology I’ve ever watched.
See for yourself.
I'd love to give you a platform way bigger than your anon X account to let you educate my audience on polls and how they work since clearly I don't know what I'm doing. @DeaceOnline will reach out. Looking forward to it!
I am actually giving one of the more optimistic takes out there. I must ask, is English your second language perhaps?
Replying to @SteveDeaceShow
Steve you have become such a doomer…. Like, to the extreme. You and your Vance crew are all towing the same line and spewing the talking points. It’s as if you want it to happen… like it somehow proves you idiots right.
I hope for many reasons you are wrong, above all because if we lose, the consequences of that will be hard for us as a country, will recover from. Secondly, I hope you’re wrong because you people need to be humbled, you need to be embarrassed. Maybe that will wake yall up.
Good point
Replying to @SteveDeaceShow
And in zero of those scenarios was there a direct threat of socialism or radical Islam.
Don’t forget the factors from the other side.
According to the cross tabs of every poll in the Real Clear Politics polling average other than Rasmussen, Republicans are going to lose independents by an average of 22 points on the generic congressional ballot.
For that to happen would require this to be the worst midterm environment for Republicans of modern times (since 1980).
Worse than 1990 “read my lips.” Worse than 2006, when the GOP lost them by 18. That’s the biggest midterm win for Democrats since the Watergate midterms of 1974.
This is not a good environment for Republicans, but it certainly isn’t that. So right away, the polls are likely to be wrong again. It’s just a matter of how wrong.
Steve Deace retweeted
These are 3 things most Christians don’t know about Reformation Day.
1. It is possible October 31 wasn't a random date.
Some historians think Luther chose October 31st to circulate his 95 Theses (and post them on the Castle Church doors according to tradition) because the following day, November 1, was All Saints’ Day.
This was a major religious celebration when large crowds of pilgrims would gather at Wittenberg's Castle Church to venerate its collection of sacred relics.
So here comes Luther… and in Thesis 36 he argues that every truly repentant Christian has a right to “full remission of penalty and guilt even without an indulgence letter.”
In other words, Luther was challenging the indulgence system immediately before a major religious celebration involving indulgences at his own university's church.
2. Luther was not trying to create a new branch of Christianity.
Luther was a devoted Catholic monk and professor of theology. When he published his 95 Theses in 1517, his goal wasn't to start a new church, but to reform the one he was already part of.
As the controversy developed, Luther wanted ordinary Christians to read the Bible themselves and believed all church teachings and traditions should ultimately be evaluated against the authority of Scripture.
By 1522, some of Luther's followers were already starting to call themselves “Lutherans” but he was against that.
In his work “A Sincere Admonition to All Christians to Guard Against Insurrection and Rebellion” he wrote: "I ask that men make no reference to my name, and call themselves not Lutherans, but Christians."
3. The printing press was the “social media” of that time… and it changed everything.
A lot of people imagine Martin Luther as a rebellious monk who nailed his 95 Theses to a church door so the whole world would hear his criticisms of the Church.
Nope.
Luther wrote the theses in Latin for academic debate. Most ordinary people couldn’t read Latin.
The printing press had been developed in Europe only about 70 years earlier, and printers began reproducing and distributing Luther's writings. His 95 theses spread quickly beyond Wittenberg, and German translations helped make his arguments accessible to ordinary people.
In other words, Luther’s work went “viral” before “viral” was a thing.
And as Luther's writings continued to spread, more and more people were being exposed to statements like these...
"When our Lord and Master Jesus Christ said, 'Repent,' he willed the entire life of believers to be one of repentance." (95 Theses, Thesis 1)
"We do not become righteous by doing righteous deeds but, having been made righteous, we do righteous deeds." (Disputation Against Scholastic Theology, Thesis 40)
"My conscience is captive to the Word of God." (Diet of Worms, 1521)
And after that, the world would never be the same.
Interesting. Really comes down how bad we lose Indies. I am forecasting minus-10. Was minus-12 in 2018 and minus-18 in 2018. The only two winning midterms for Democrats since 1990.
























