The Rio Times

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮 𝗠𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆: 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝗮𝗴𝘂𝗮𝘆’𝘀 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗤𝘂𝗶𝘁𝘀 Brazil Security fear after a vote: a Rio gang hijacked three buses after its boss was arrested Mexico Violence close to the capital: cartel boss El General killed in a shootout in Naucalpan Argentina Price fatigue: October tax revenue rose 33.7%, roughly level with inflation Colombia Pre-strike tension: national strike set for 19 November and a rebel-held officer, María Pantoja Chile Unsettled accounts: Codelco overstated copper output by 42,000 tonnes while a Pinochet-era agent walks free Paraguay Institutional shock: President Peña announced his resignation over a failed bank riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹’𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗛𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗦𝗶𝘅-𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗟𝗼𝘄 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗨𝗦 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟲 The dollar is the story at the open, with the real at 5.5051 per US dollar, its weakest close in at least six months and 9.57% weaker than 20 sessions ago Copom has paused the Selic at 13.75% in Wednesday’s unanimous decision, ending five cuts that began in March Prediction markets put 82.5% on no Copom change in December (Polymarket, 11 p.m. ET, 5 November) The next rate decision is 9 December; the Copom minutes on Tuesday 10 November are the first real clue to whether cuts resume this year Today’s biggest scheduled shock is American US payrolls at 10:30 in Brasília, after a Wall Street rout that sent the VIX fear gauge to 28.18 Domestic politics adds a second layer of worry after Lula’s re-election, as the central bank says uncertainty has risen sharply riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟱, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil Cautious relief: the central bank held its rate at 13.75% while GPA’s loss and C&A’s profit showed a split in corporate health —Mexico Uneasy streets: a Cuernavaca councillor who had reported threats was shot dead —Chile Proud but stretched: President Kast met Pope Leo XIV while a truckers’ strike dragged on at home —Argentina Bruised: Indec’s living-conditions survey counts more poor households as cheaper oil hit its energy shares —Colombia Anxious: central bank staff see inflation ending 2026 at 7.1% as the government eyes a 19% petrol tax —Paraguay Rattled: a bank crisis has opened an impeachment push even though October inflation held at 1.7% riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗣𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗖𝘂𝘁𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝟭𝟯.𝟳𝟱% 𝗮𝘀 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝟭.𝟮% | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟱 The central bank stopped cutting, holding the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, at 13.75% on Wednesday, in a unanimous vote that ended five cuts in a row since the rate stood at 15% Today’s data test is the factory floor, with Brazilian industrial production due at about 09:00 BRT and the S&P Global purchasing managers’ surveys about an hour later, both after a Copom that blamed fiscal pressure and a weaker external backdrop The Copom gave no promise on what comes next; its statement said only that it would keep “adequate restriction” in place until inflation converges to target, so every data point now moves the rate bet Oil-linked names are the ones to watch Petrobras, the state-controlled oil giant, and the oil producer PRIO, because crude’s slide and the Copom’s hold both feed straight into their shares and into the real Third-quarter results are still landing, with the retailer C&A reporting a profit that beat estimates and the supermarket group GPA a loss of R$220 million (about US$40 million) from continuing operations, while Axia, the former Eletrobras, nearly doubled its nine-month profit Prediction markets on Polymarket give a hold in December 74.5% and a quarter-point cut 15.5% (11 pm ET, 4 November) riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil Anxious: Brasília wants Argentina to explain how Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who lost the 25 October runoff, left the country. —Mexico Wary: Sheinbaum keeps strong approval ratings, but security slips as rival gangs contest the country’s busiest port. —Argentina Jumpy: the government calls the Bolsonaro matter closed while airport staff plan a strike for 6 November. —Chile Tense: three jailed over the Martín Pérez kidnapping while the right frets over a coming constitutional accusation. —Colombia Under pressure: drone bombs hit a police station and the UN voted 15 to 0 to narrow its mission. —Cuba Worn down: the loss of a Turkish power ship deepens the blackouts. riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟭.𝟰% 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟰 Brazil’s central bank rate committee, Copom, announces its Selic decision tonight, and the market goes into it bruised, uncertain and watching for any hint on how the bank reads the post-election fiscal worry. The Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, closed at its lowest in at least six months, 165,529, after six straight falls; it sits 20.8% below its 9 October peak of 209,067 and 10.0% above its 12-month low of 150,454. The real, Brazil’s currency, closed at 5.49 to the US dollar, its weakest in at least six months, while the global dollar index actually fell, so this is a Brazilian story, not a worldwide one. The RT calendar consensus is for the Selic, the central bank’s benchmark rate, to hold at 13.75%; Polymarket bettors give a 0.25-point cut only about 11%, so the wording of the statement may matter more than the number. Today’s domestic data is thin, with São Paulo inflation at dawn and formal jobs in the afternoon; industrial production and purchasing-manager surveys arrive tomorrow, and no earnings or ex-dividend dates are confirmed for today. Prediction markets: Polymarket gives no change in the Selic 88.1% and a 0.25-point cut 11.0% (3 November, 11:14 p.m. ET). riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟱 𝗗𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗕𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟯 The Copom decides the Selic on Wednesday 4 November after the close, with the RT calendar and prediction markets pointing to a hold at 13.75%, while Polymarket traders give a quarter-point cut a 13.5% chance. Inflation forecasts of about 5.2% for 2026 sit above the 4.5% ceiling of the official target range, which limits how far the central bank can cut. B3 trades a longer day from today, with the regular session running to 17:55 Brasília time after US daylight saving ended, which gives positioning more room into the afternoon. Brazil’s factory gauge is due this morning with a consensus of 43 against 44.8 before, and any reading below 50 means contraction, so a weak print would feed the debate over whether rates stay high. The Ibovespa starts the day down 19.7% from its 9 October peak after five straight losing sessions, so the Copom wager has to carry a market already deeply bruised. Prediction markets: Polymarket traders put a hold at 83.2% and a quarter-point cut at 13.5% for Wednesday’s decision (as of 11 p.m. ET, 2 November). riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟯, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil Impatient: the government denies any plan to cap interest rates as the central bank meets, with a decision on 4 November —Colombia Grieving: a truck bomb in Planadas killed four people, including a two-month-old baby —Chile Brittle: the president’s approval has fallen to 26% while the opposition moves against his justice minister —Mexico Watchful: the Day of the Dead ended in candlelight as a US court fight over 20,000 California ballots touched families on both sides of the border —Ecuador Wary: a ten-night curfew on the coast began, with the 29 November vote ahead —Peru Squeezed: prices in Lima rose 5.25% in a year, the first reading above 5% since 2023 riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗡𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil Pause after a rout: the stock market is shut for All Souls’ Day after five straight losing sessions. —Mexico Ritual and doubt: Day of the Dead, while a former governor’s house-arrest ruling raises questions about justice. —Chile Nervous money: the main stock index fell 2.76% on Friday. —Argentina Watching the dollars: payments to the IMF continue this year. —Colombia Farewell: Antonio Navarro, a former M-19 guerrilla leader turned politician, died at 78. riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗦𝗵𝘂𝘁 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗮𝘀 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗡𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗡𝗼𝘃 𝟮 Brazil’s stock exchange is closed today for All Souls’ Day, so there is no opening to forecast and the next price discovery comes on Tuesday 3 November, per B3’s own 2026 calendar The Copom decision arrives on Wednesday 4 November, when the central bank’s rate committee sets the Selic, the benchmark interest rate that shapes every loan and bond in Brazil Prediction markets: Polymarket prices no change in the 13.75% Selic at 82.7% and a 25-basis-point cut at 17.5% (US$126,000 traded, 1 November, 11 pm ET) Tuesday’s reopening has to absorb a long weekend of news, including a Friday close of 167,922 for the Ibovespa, Brazil’s main stock index, which sits 19.7% below its 9 October peak The real enters the week weak; the dollar closed Friday at 5.4385 reais, its highest close in at least six months Tuesday’s calendar is thin but pointed, with Brazil’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (a monthly factory survey) and the central bank’s weekly Focus forecasts both due riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗙𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗹𝘂𝘀 𝗛𝗶𝘁𝘀 𝗨𝗦$𝟬.𝟵 𝗕𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗼𝗻 Brazil’s federal government posted a primary surplus of R$4.839 billion (US$0.89 billion) in September 2026, beating a market forecast of a R$7.5 billion (US$1.4 billion) deficit, the National Treasury announced on Thursday 29 October 2026. The result had a large boost, because the Judiciary cancelled R$12.8 billion (US$2.4 billion) of court-ordered payments from earlier years and the money returned to the Treasury as revenue. riotimesonline.com/brazil-fe…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗿𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟯𝟬, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Mexico Mourning the death of leftist icon Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas while a dog poisoning case horrifies Condesa. —Brazil Markets slide for a fourth day on debt fears and political uncertainty, yet oil finds bring hope. —Chile Public trust in justice is bruised as a row over sentence cuts puts two Justice Ministry officials under pressure. —Argentina Commuters get a break as the government freezes bus fares and raises subsidies. —Colombia A fiscal rescue law promises tax relief, but stocks fall 0.63% and the peso weakens. riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟭.𝟬𝟲%; 𝗝𝗼𝗯𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝘂𝗱𝗴𝗲𝘁 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗗𝘂𝗲 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗢𝗰𝘁 𝟯𝟬 The Selic wager is the spine of today’s trade, with Brazil’s policy rate at 13.75% after a September cut and the next decision due 4 November. September unemployment lands at 9:00 am BRT, with the consensus at 5.2% against 5.3% before; a firm labour market would complicate rate cuts. Fiscal data is the swing factor, as traders watch the gross debt-to-GDP ratio and a budget deficit expected to narrow to R$100bn (about US$18.6bn). Vale holds its earnings webcast today, with funds listening for copper, nickel and dividend signals. The real is pinned near its weaker end, with CFTC positioning data later showing how crowded the BRL short trade has become. riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝗵𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟵, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil Petrobras, the state oil company, posts record output while senator Flávio Bolsonaro leaves the country. —Mexico The Senate admits 28 US Navy SEALs for training, a vote that raises questions of sovereignty. —Chile Universidad Católica stumbles before the Clásico, turning football misery into a national metaphor for stalled momentum. —Colombia Crypto moves US$29.1 billion a year, with stablecoins behind about 48% of purchases. riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗙𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝟮.𝟲𝟴%; 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗢𝗰𝘁 𝟮𝟵 Brazil’s main stock index, the Ibovespa, fell 2.68% to 171,006 on Wednesday, and the dollar closed at R$5.35. IGP-M, a wholesale-price index, and bank-lending data land this morning; payroll figures follow at 2:30 pm BRT (Brasília time). Vale, the iron-ore miner, reports third-quarter results after the close today, so the reaction comes Friday. The US Federal Reserve held its rate at 3.75%–4%; Brazil’s central bank committee, the Copom, decides on 3 and 4 November. Prediction markets: Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, gives 68.3% to no change in Brazil’s Selic interest rate in November and 29.0% to a quarter-point cut (US$117,929 traded, 29 October 2026, 12:03 a.m. ET). riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗽 𝟬.𝟱% 𝗮𝘀 𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗟𝗼𝗼𝗺𝘀 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗢𝗰𝘁 𝟮𝟴 Prediction markets: Polymarket prices a 69% chance that the Copom, Brazil’s central-bank rate committee, holds the Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, on 4 November (12:00 am ET, 28 October). Brazil’s data calendar is light today, so the US Federal Reserve rate decision at 3 pm BRT is the main outside event. Klabin (paper), Santander Brasil (banking) and Intelbras (security equipment) report third-quarter results today,giving three sector read-throughs. The local political backdrop remains tense, with traders focused on post-election fiscal clarity and the future Selic path. Yesterday’s US session offers a supportive external mood, with Wall Street up and the VIX lower, though Brazil remains decoupled on domestic risk. riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗲𝗱𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟴, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil Post-election nerves bite as Lula’s runoff sparks market rout and family debt fears. —Mexico A sinking capital and a weaker peso temper the national mood. —Chile Quiet confidence as lithium cash and rising stocks cushion global noise. —Argentina Stocks fell 2.6% as Brazil’s selloff spread. —Colombia Local lottery hope and everyday routines mask simmering security worries. —Cuba The UN votes this week on the US embargo as Washington keeps up the pressure. riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗧𝘂𝗲𝘀𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟳, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil A confused hangover: Lula wins but markets crash, Bolsonaro’s party concedes, and Trump fans doubt. —Chile Frantic and wet: Santiago floods force elderly evacuations as ten communes go on red alert. —Argentina Quietly anxious: Chicago soy prices drop and tourists flow in, but the Lula shock makes a tough year feel tighter. —Mexico Restless and expectant: Checo Pérez brings his Cadillac Formula 1 car to Reforma on Wednesday ahead of the Grand Prix. —Colombia Numb and busy: Avianca expands abroad and ex-leaders face probes as the country just keeps moving. —Venezuela Frozen in waiting: opposition leader María Corina Machado signals openness to talks, as the region holds its breath. riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…

𝗕𝗿𝗮𝘇𝗶𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟯.𝟵% 𝗣𝗹𝘂𝗻𝗴𝗲 | 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹, 𝗢𝗰𝘁 𝟮𝟳 Brazil’s September producer price index is due at 9:00 a.m. BRT; economists expect 0.50% monthly and 2.70% annual. The Selic, Brazil’s benchmark interest rate, stands at 13.75% and traders still wager on cuts after October’s softer mid-month inflation data. Prediction markets: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting exchange, prices no change in Brazil’s November rate decision at 66.8% and a 25-point cut at 26.5% (27 Oct, 12:03 a.m. ET). Hypera, a Brazilian drugmaker (HYPE3), reports third-quarter results after the close, the day’s major earnings event on the B3 exchange. Yesterday the Ibovespa closed down 13.88% after a 30-minute trading halt, and the real lost 8.8% against the US dollar. riotimesonline.com/brazils-f…

𝗟𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆, 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟲, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 —Brazil A mood of contested relief as Lula wins a fourth term and Flávio Bolsonaro, the defeated candidate, says he will seek to annul the result. —Argentina Watchful as a political fight next door raises worries about regional risk, with the extra yield on Argentine bonds near 700 points. —Mexico Calm and celebratory as Club América pays tribute to goalkeeper Memo Ochoa, and President Claudia Sheinbaum hails a democratic win in Brazil. —Chile Warmly welcoming as President José Antonio Kast congratulates Lula, framing the moment as a chance for a stronger bilateral future. —Colombia Business-minded amid corporate expansion news, while the region’s political drama plays out next door. —Peru Focused on domestic sport, with Universitario winning the first stage of the national volleyball league. riotimesonline.com/latin-ame…