NBA/MLB/NFL @RotoBaller, 2021 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year, 2024 FSWA Baseball + DFS Writer finalists, 2025 FSWA Research Article of the Year finalist
Pennsylvania, USA
Joined December 2017
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✂️The Fantasy Basketball CUT LIST - 2nd Edition✂️
Who are we moving on from this week? And which players should be held through their struggles?
CUT LIST = my conscience is clear
WATCH LIST = player is on thin ice
HOLD LIST = You might regret that cut!
rotoballer.com/fantasy-baske…
Not too active on here today. Been in the hospital with my youngest since last night.
She is OKAY, don't worry. But will probably stay until tomorrow just for observation. Just threw a wrench in all my regularly scheduled programming.
Will prob be back to normal content and whatnot by tomorrow.
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Now or never for Ware!
Tyler Herro (right knee) questionable; Myles Turner out vs. Lakers Wednesday (@camezeir)
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Who's on the chopping block this week?
🪓🏀🤷♂️
Fantasy Basketball Cut List: 2nd Edition
(via @ThunderDanDFS)
rotoballer.com/fantasy-baske…
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Prop Bet Picks for Tonight's NBA Slate!
rotoballer.com/nba-player-pr…
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OOOF! I really thought this was the bounceback year for Lauri.
It is, indeed, NOT.
The Jazz were supposed to compete this year. Now it's just a Darryn Peterson development year. Dang.
💰NBA Player Props Bets - Wednesday, 11/11💰
It's a big day for big guys! A lot of smash spots for centers on the glass.
My favorite picks are live @RotoBaller @RotoBallerNBA
rotoballer.com/nba-prop-bet-…
Instead of "Bench Player Props," let's call these...
ROLE PLAYER PROPS!
🎥Brayden Burries o5.5 REB (+106 Novig)
💪Brice Sensabaugh o13.5 PTS (-105 FAN)
🇸🇪Pelle Larsson o11.5 PTS (-111 Novig)
Tristan da Silva (questionable) o13.5 PTS (-107 ProphetX)
Bennett Stirtz o6.5 PTS (+100 Novig)
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Turnovers matter! I like what they're doing here. Ignoring them entirely just doesn't make sense to me, so giving them the proper weight makes the most sense.
Why does Breakout Value give turnovers half weight?
Traditional 9-CAT rankings treat turnovers equally with every other category. But turnovers aren't entirely independent of offensive production.
Players who create more offense generally handle the ball more, generating points and assists but also more opportunities to turn it over.
Meanwhile, lower-usage players benefit from fewer turnovers, partly because they have fewer opportunities to commit them.
Across five seasons of top-150 players, we found strong correlations between turnovers and:
• Points: r = 0.74
• Assists: r = 0.76
This has a real impact on player valuations.
Comparing against a version with turnovers treated like any other category (2025–26 per-game):
📈 Stephon Castle: #144 → #113 (+31)
His playmaking comes with a turnover cost.
📉 Mitchell Robinson: #109 → #128 (−19)
His low turnovers help, but partly reflect fewer on-ball responsibilities.
Turnovers still matter in H2H, and ball security has value. Breakout Value counts them at 50% weight to reduce both effects without ignoring the category.
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Too early to celebrate yet, BUT McDaniels is ranked exactly 50th right now.
17-6-3.6 on 51% + 81%. 1.5 threes, 0.8 STL, 0.9 BLK
Turnovers up a little with increased usage while ANT is out, but looking like a great bet to smash his ADP.
The Pistons are better with him out there - bottom line. It was the same story in the playoffs last year.
I didn't think it would be to a running back, but this big-gainer JUST cleared the over with 36 yards to Ty Johnson, of all people! We'll take it!
teapaw.org/NFL/status/21199935666…
Josh Allen 34.5 yds longest completion (-120 DK)
Allen is 7-0 on the over this season. We know the Vikings run more Zone, Cover 2 than any team in the league, while also blitzing at the highest rate of any defense.
That 70% blitz rate has resulted in the best pressure rate as well.
When pressured, Allen ranks...
1st in ADOT (15.79 yds)
2nd in Deep Throw % (27.5%)
On pass attempts over 20 yds this season...
Allen was pressured on 59% of them
Ranks 1st in ADOT (34.03 yds)
All stats courtesy of @SumerSports
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I am required to bump any content with the SWEDISH SLASHER in the top slot!
Tuesday Streamers 🌊
🥇Pelle Larsson
🥈Isaiah Jackson
🥉Jaxson Hayes
Tristan da Silva 🦬
Kyle Kuzma 🎥
Derrick Jones Jr.
Isaiah Collier
Max Strus
Keaton Wagler
Robert Williams
De'Andre Hunter
Mitchell Robinson
Malik Monk
Ryan Dunn
#FantasyBasketball 🏀
🏀Fantasy Basketball Notes from Tuesday, 11/9🏀
Super short and sweet addition!
☑️Daniss Jenkins is a must-add, and John Collins looks great moving to center. Paul Reed is a drop.
☑️CJM's move to the bench finally paid off - 21 pts. He and Wiggins are arguably the best bench-scoring duo in the league. Hawks are legit 7-deep for fantasy, but Lu Dort (8th man) can be cut if you added him while JJ was out.
☑️Javon Small is killing Cam Spencer. Our guy Cam is a drop in anything but the deepest of leagues...SAD!
☑️Cooper Flagg is HIM (43-10-6, 5 BLOCKS🤯) and, side note, I rostered him for 70+ DK points and still didn't cash last night - SAD!
☑️Wemby is breaking fantasy basketball; it's finally happening. 40 and 11 with 9 blocks in...25 minutes?
☑️The only thing more pathetic than the Cavs' effort against the Charlotte backups last night was whatever the hell you call what the Pelicans did. They managed 43 points in the first half and lost by...52 points? I know Trey and Zion were out, but c'mon.
🤮Final note...blowouts suck! My prop picks in close games all smashed, but Steph (25 points in 20 min) was super annoying. Probably fading the big spreads for props (a little harder to do in DFS) as much as possible going forward.
DraftKings “King of the Court” is back this week!
We’ve got the top candidates you need to consider on tonight’s slate @RotoBaller thanks to @DFSKoby
Turn a $5 prop bet into a windfall if bonus bets if you pick the right guy!
rotoballer.com/nba-prop-bet-…
A team high 21 pts for CJM tonight and another sweat-free cash!
CJ McCollum OVER 12.5 PTS (-104 Novig)
McCollum has moved to the bench, BUT is sporting a 27% usage rate since the move.
He's just shot terribly (5-for-25) in those two games.
I'm betting that won't happen a third night in a row. ATL-LAL has the closest spread and highest total on the board!
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21 pts and 10 boards from Kessler - cashed us out midway through the 3rd quarter!
Walker Kessler OVER 24.5 PTS + REB (+100 FD)
Kessler is averaging 28 PTS + REB over his last five. He's beast on the offensive glass, and gets a lot of his points off putbacks and as the roll man in P+R w/Luka or Reaves.
Atlanta is allowing the third-most points per possession on putbacks and the fourth-most to rollers on the P+R.
Close spread (LAL +1.5) and huge total (236.5), Kessler crushes with 30 minutes tonight.
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The Cavs are an unserious basketball team.
Down 25 to the fucking Hornets who have 1.5 healthy starters.
It’s embarrassing. Trade all of them. I’m sick.
Hoping this boosts Collins a bit, too. He sure could use it,
Daniss Jenkins in the starting lineup tonight! 🚨
With Paul Reed moving to the bench, Jenkins is a speculative must-grab in standard leagues to see how high the ceiling goes. Meanwhile, Bball Paul turns into an easy drop in 12+ teamers. 📉
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