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Using the UTXO set to calculate a bitcoin price Telegram: https://teapaw.org/t.co/b53iwp3cb6

Joined July 2023
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🧵 BIG NEWS! We can now infer the daily price of Bitcoin within 1% accuracy by looking only at the unspent transaction output (UTXO) set. This paves the way for trust-minimized, decentralized finance on Bitcoin. Here's how... #UTXOracle
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👇 Why does the blockchain need to exist? It's because everyone's mempool isn't the same. Block confirmations sync all the updates to where my newest block now exactly matches everyone else's
Replying to @SteveSimple
For a long time I didn’t know much about mempools. When you start building things you face this conundrum and learn quite a bit. For those finding this post here is the why: Each Bitcoin node maintains its own mempool in its local RAM (memory). Therefore mempools aren’t perfectly identical across the network - they’re not stored in some centralized location or on the blockchain itself.
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As a reminder, UTXOracle does not reference any exchange price. It just looks at bitcoin transactions to infer what the price is. See how well it works 👇 cc @SteveSimple youtube.com/live/8Q-Wzl0BL74
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He's done it again. Unbelievable! 👇
If we listen closely Bitcoin tells us its own price UTXOracle is LIVE! 100% on-chain data Real-time mempool entries No banks No exchanges No paper trading No API calls Open source Decentralized The only objective price Stream link in bio and comments 👇 Let the signal speak
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While it is true UTXOracle v6 may be ~10% off during the most volatile days, don't forget that every single exchange has examples of terrible flash crashes. Don't gloss over the risks of trusted third parties.
Should @cz_binance be charged with Grand Larceny???? On Oct 21, 2021, with a Bitcoin trading above $56,000, IMO @binance rigged its computer to force customers to sell the $BTC they owned for less than $9,000 per. @BinanceUS needs to answer the following: 1. What volume occurred below $55,000? 2. Have those clients forced to sell in the hole been price adjusted? 3. Has the @CFTC investigated this suspicious price discovery? If not, why not? 4. Was the other side of customer sell orders taken by Binance, BinanceUS or CZ's personal account? 5. Should Binance release corrected lows to data vendors?
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Trying to run the numbers for BitVM at supertestnet.github.io/taple… We're too excited to sleep!
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Thank you very much for the thoughtful commentary @TonyCai_!
UTXOracle: Everything you need to know (+ what are its current limitations?) UTXOracle is an innovative way that interprets the Bitcoin UTXO set to calculate the daily BTC price with remarkable precision. This opens the floodgates for more trust-minimized DeFi applications on Bitcoin, potentially changing the way oracles can function moving forward. My take of @UTXOracle, and its practically as someone building with DLCs (Bitcoin Oracle Contracts!): 🎢 Unreliable during high volatility periods: The downside of UTXOracle is its accuracy during volatile market phases - it can be up to 10% off. This is significant, especially when it comes to settling options and futures contracts at the precise price. The importance is amplified in options since they are volatility-centric. 🌎 Compatability with centralized exchanges: For a company like @AtomicFinance, we are (thus far) just a small part in the broader Bitcoin Options ecosystem alongside centralized giants like Deribit and LedgerX. That’s why the precision in price attestation is crucial. Market makers we work with hedge on centralized venues, which likely wouldn’t use something like UTXOracle for contract resolutions, creating a discrepancy in attestaion price. 🔐 Centralized entity still needed: Moreover, UTXOracle doesn't fully address the oracle attestation challenge. There still needs to be an entity grabbing and attesting to the data. Essentially, it provides an additional price feed for oracle attestation but doesn’t replace the need for a trusted attestation entity. (BUT: this limitation COULD be changed with BitVM - still too early to tell though!) 🎭 Fake UTXOs skewing oracle: There's an additional risk where someone could create fake UTXOs to mislead the UTXOracle, causing it to show a wrong price. While UTXOracle depends on real UTXOs, the presence of fake ones could mess up its accuracy, posing a threat to trustworthy price information. All that being said, experimentation is what breeds robust solutions. While UTXOracle may not fit the bill for us at the moment, the dialogue it has sparked is invaluable. It’s a stepping stone towards a more trust-minimized ecosystem. 🌱 What are your thoughts on UTXOracle? Engage and share your thoughts! 👇
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Could be! Let’s find out 🤠 There are no perfect solutions in bitcoin, but doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try.
combining these two recent bitcoin innovations unlocks god mode. why are you still paying attention to other chains? @robin_linus @SteveSimple
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This is the EXACT problem we've been banging our heads against the wall on for a LONG time. 👉 How do you punish someone on-chain for trying to break a promise they made to you off-chain? Fantastic work @robin_linus @ZeroSync_ ++ bitcoinmagazine.com/technica…
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Even the limitations of the paper aren’t that big of a deal for UTXOracle: - big off-chain footprint - 2 of 2 only - May require challenges and responses on-chain (so it’s not good for small-value transactions where multiple rounds of fees would be an issue)
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One thing is certain, the signal will go away eventually. Let’s hope it’s because Bitcoin has won.
It will be fun watching this heuristic degrade as bitcoin denominations become more relevant in the economy. But for now interesting insight I got he USD ghost in the machine
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Glad to see this getting more attention. Super fascinating concept 🔥 Covered their article on it recently if you want to get the deets 👇🏻 spotify.link/mj1mR12ghDb
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Exactly. Bitcoiners don't need any trusted third parties to tell us what "the" price of bitcoin is. Be wary of any platform whose price varies meaningfully from the UTXOracle price. No "surveillance-sharing agreement" needed.
If this is what it does; then this should surely help immensely against exchanges/trusted third parties & paper Bitcoin (fiduciary media) affecting the price of Bitcoin? The bigger the discrepancy between the exchanges stated price and this? Plebs can just ignore "wall street" pricing? Individuals incentivised to possibly arbitrage buy (at the risk of not getting their bitcoin, but then would clearly voice a run on that institution if they don't or delays)? 🤔
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According to my node, the January 01, 2023 btc price estimate is: $16,688 We've run the numbers! Download the file and run it yourself at utxo.live/oracle/UTXOracle.p… You'll get the exact same price as me 🤯
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Run a local version of utxo.live to visually explore the UTXO set. Follow the instructions at github.com/Unbesteveable/utx…
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Update: dumptxoutset dumped! 115,884,579 UTXOs accounted for at block 802,457
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