0xBeansack

What I'm bidding and why Sent this to an internal chat and thought I'd repost here too I don’t think the cycle is over—expecting BTC and TOTAL3 to be significantly higher in ~2 years. Currently ~60% cash thanks to $USDe farming (still took a ~40% drawdown peak-to-trough). Now aggressively bidding again for the first time in a while As discussed on Hivemind, I see 3 proven crypto use cases with PMF: 1. Token issuance (mostly L1s, some niche tokens like pump.fun) 2. Exchanges 3. Stablecoins My strategy is to build long-term positions in winners across these categories Stablecoins Of the 3 use cases, the one I’m most confident continues to grow counter-cyclically even in a bear market is stablecoins. This is crypto's killer app, and the only one that isn't highly correlated with the speculative cycle. This is gradually becoming a mainstream view, with Stripe paying $1b for stablecoin infra project Bridge, and the Trump administration acknowledging them as a tool for extending dollar supremacy and prioritising accordingly Main bet here: $ENA (surprise!). Think it's the cleanest liquid way to get exposure to the growing stablecoin narrative. Also think it's one of the few projects in crypto that has a shot at going after all 3 of the crypto use cases w/ PMF: stablecoin, chain (Ethena network), and exchange (via @etherealdex). Most importantly, I know @leptokurtic_ well, consider him one of the best founders in the space, and have a lot of faith on his ability to execute on this vision long-term Worth noting there's a large ~2b ENA unlock happening tomorrow March 5th. I believe this is mostly priced in and hedged at this point given the ~70% price drop from the top, large OI increases + consistent negative funding, and rumours of large hedging flows going thru MMs. Believe this could end up being one of the few elusive "bullish unlocks" (eg APT, SUI, ONDO) as many potential buyers are currently sidelined in anticipation of it and will end up FOMO'ing in together if if the unlock turns out to be a non-event. My plan: TWAP ~50% desired exposure pre-unlock, remaining ~50% post-event dips. Obviously biased (Delphi Ventures is an early investor), but also my largest liquid PA position Token issuance I also bought some more $SOL. Unlocks are also likely priced in at this point. Continue to think given metrics (REV, app revenue, dev mindshare) and the way they're executing, it has a good shot at being the winning generalised execution environment. While crime szn has hurt optics, I think this is more of a symptom of Solana's success rather than anything fundamental. This is my 2nd largest position Exchange Finally, starting to bid some $HYPE too as I think they’re one of the only projects in crypto with a legitimate shot at successfully building all 3 of the crypto use cases with PMF: L1, exchange and eventually stablecoin too (once spot and later cross-margin are live, I'd be surprised if they don’t announce some kind of stablecoin) My main concerns here are: a) WhiIe execution has been impressive, i don't know the team personally and thus don't have confidence in the same way I do with others b) They've taken a lot of shortcuts (few validators, closed-source code, multi-sig BTC bridge) which have clearly served them well but also add hard-to-quantify blowup and regulatory risk c) It has felt expensive compared to comps, but with the real FDV now around ~$10b (as 30% of supply is in treasury), this is starting to feel more reasonable given cashflows and the size of the opportunity. Would size more aggressively closer to $10 Other I'm also looking at the AI coins but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Imo, they inevitably have another run and sector will keep growing simply due to the progress happening in AI generally and open-source specifically. We've released several thesis pieces here or on our bull-case so won't repeat them again. However, I think they rely more on animal spirits and I've struggled to rationalise bidding them in size in this market. Feel like it could be a while until true animal spirits return, and given the amount of private capital raised in crypto x AI and upcoming launches, a lot could change in the sector until then. Would rather wait and buy winners higher