Systematic medium to long term crypto investor. Liquidity, volatility, regime, valuation and rotation. Probabilistic. Evidence first. NFA
Joined January 2026
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📁 QUANTYX
├📁 Liquidity
│ └📁 Is liquidity helping or fighting the move?
├📁 Risk
│ └📁 How much exposure is justified?
├📁 Trend
│ └📁 Is the move actually intact?
├📁 Structure
│ └📁 Where are we inside the move?
├📁 Internals
│ └📁 Spot, leverage, flow & positioning
├📁 Deployment
│ └📁 What are the systems actually holding?
├📁 Valuation
│ └📁 Cheap, fair or stretched?
└📁 Probability
└📁 What outcome carries the most weight?
📁 End of Day
└📁 Nothing materially changed
└📁 Don't manufacture another opinion.txt
Systems > narratives. Evidence > conviction.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #QuantTrading
OPTIONS MAP | BTC Gamma
Last map, spot sat under the gamma flip at 73.5K, and this feed said hedging adds to moves there. BTC fell to 67.6K. The 75.3K flip was never reclaimed.
Today the flip has dropped to 70.0K. Spot is 68.2K, still under it. Negative gamma.
The walls moved down too. Calls now stacked at 69K, puts at 68K. Spot sits between them.
Friday's options expired, and the map is far thinner than last week. Hedging flows count for less.
Reclaim 70K and hedging starts calming moves again.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Options #Crypto
OPTIONS MAP | BTC Gamma
Four days ago spot sat right on the gamma flip, and this map said below 74K, hedging adds to moves. BTC broke 74K and ran to 72.6K.
Today spot sits well under the flip. 73,524 against 75,278.
That's negative gamma. Dealer hedging adds to moves here, both ways.
The call wall moved down from 81K to 74K, right on top of the puts. One strike, just above spot.
Reclaim the flip near 75.3K and hedging starts calming moves again.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Options #Crypto
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PERPS + SPOT | BTC and ETH Positioning
Yesterday we called it a leveraged sell-off, with longs still paying to hold. BTC was 68.6K. It's 68.2K now.
Some of that leverage got flushed overnight. BTC open interest fell about 3%. Funding cooled. ETH funding is now near zero.
The US spot discount narrowed again on both, the third read in a row. It still hasn't closed.
Sellers still lead the delta on every timeframe.
The 24-hour heatmaps show pockets just under price, and near 71K and 2,000 above.
The discount closing is still the tell.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
PERPS + SPOT | BTC and ETH Positioning
Four days ago we flagged the biggest long liquidation pockets just under 75K and 2,200. By the next morning BTC hit 73.5K and ETH 2,089. Then 72.6K and 2,003.
The other half hasn't happened. US spot is still selling at a discount.
BTC open interest is flat on the week while price is down about 3%. ETH is different. Its open interest is down about 6%. Leverage is leaving.
The heatmaps flipped. The biggest pockets now sit above, near 76K and 2,250.
The discount closing is still the tell.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Yesterday's daily read improved to -0.70 as US net liquidity turned. BTC was 68.6K. It's 68.2K now.
Still -0.70. Net liquidity is still the one driver helping.
The other four got heavier. The dollar's three-month gain widened to 2.4%. Real yields rose again. Bond stress is up about 20% in three months.
The score didn't move. The pressure underneath it did.
Sunday's official read lands tomorrow.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Yesterday's read was -1.00 with zero drivers helping. BTC was 73.2K. It's 68.6K now.
Today's daily read improved to -0.70. One driver turned.
US net liquidity rose about $53B this week as the Treasury drew down its cash. Its three-month change turned positive.
The other four are still headwinds. Real yields jumped again. Bond stress is up about 17% in three months. The dollar is still firm.
Daily read. Sunday confirms.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
Yesterday both trend reads were short and far from a flip. BTC was 68.6K, ETH 1,921. Now 68.2K and 1,927.
A quiet day. Neither score moved. BTC sits at -0.67, ETH at -0.50.
BTC flipped short on 25 Oct near 80.1K, on an updated model. 15% lower since.
ETH has read short in every post since 20 Oct, from 2,397. That's 20% lower.
The first long flip changes this. Neither is close.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
Yesterday both trend reads were short and far from a flip. BTC was 73.5K, ETH 2,045. Now 68.6K and 1,921.
BTC flipped short on 25 Oct near 80.1K, on an updated model. 14% lower since.
ETH has read short in every post since 20 Oct, from 2,397. That's 20% lower.
BTC's score slid again, from -0.50 to -0.67. ETH held at -0.50. Both still far from a flip.
The first long flip changes this.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Yesterday this feed said defensive until a medium-term trend turns long. BTC was 68.6K. It's 68.2K now.
None turned. One more read went the other way.
All three of BTC's bands now read cash. Momentum was the last one holding long.
SOL's trend is as short as the model goes. Volume sank further below its signal.
Macro liquidity is still above its mean. Stablecoins are still below theirs, a little less weak.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Yesterday this feed said the long-term trend was still up, and the only one. BTC was 73.5K. It's 68.6K now.
The last holdout flipped. The long-term trend now reads bearish.
Every trend on the dashboard is short. Risk-off, and aligned. Volume sank deeper below its signal. Microstructure reads bearish.
One thing moved the other way. Macro liquidity jumped above its mean. Stablecoins didn't follow.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Yesterday's read was -1.00 with zero drivers helping. BTC was 73.2K. It's 68.6K now.
Today's daily read improved to -0.70. One driver turned.
US net liquidity rose about $53B this week as the Treasury drew down its cash. Its three-month change turned positive.
The other four are still headwinds. Real yields jumped again. Bond stress is up about 17% in three months. The dollar is still firm.
Daily read. Sunday confirms.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Sunday's official read was -1.00 at 75.8K. BTC is 73.2K now. The macro read hasn't moved.
Still -1.00. Still zero of five drivers helping.
The dollar is up 1.8% in three months. Global liquidity is down 1.9%. Bond stress is up about 14%. Real yields rose again this week.
Price fell over 3%. The headwind stayed.
Wait for liquidity to turn.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
Yesterday both trend reads were short and far from a flip. BTC was 73.5K, ETH 2,045. Now 68.6K and 1,921.
BTC flipped short on 25 Oct near 80.1K, on an updated model. 14% lower since.
ETH has read short in every post since 20 Oct, from 2,397. That's 20% lower.
BTC's score slid again, from -0.50 to -0.67. ETH held at -0.50. Both still far from a flip.
The first long flip changes this.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
Four days ago both trend reads were short. BTC was 75.8K, ETH 2,234. Now 73.5K and 2,045.
ETH has read short in every post since 20 Oct, from 2,397. That's 15% lower.
BTC flipped short on 25 Oct near 80.1K, on an updated model. 8% lower since.
ETH's score fell from -0.17 to -0.50, on an updated model. It was close to a flip. Now both sit far from one.
The first long flip changes this.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Yesterday this feed said the long-term trend was still up, and the only one. BTC was 73.5K. It's 68.6K now.
The last holdout flipped. The long-term trend now reads bearish.
Every trend on the dashboard is short. Risk-off, and aligned. Volume sank deeper below its signal. Microstructure reads bearish.
One thing moved the other way. Macro liquidity jumped above its mean. Stablecoins didn't follow.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Four days ago this feed said defensive until a trend turns long and volume turns with it. BTC was 75.8K. It's 73.5K now.
Neither turned. Volume sank further below its signal.
Every medium-term trend still reads short. Stablecoins are still well below their mean, a touch less weak than last week. Microstructure reads bearish. Macro liquidity sits near its mean.
The long-term trend is still up. Still the only one.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long and volume turns with it.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
OPTIONS MAP | BTC Gamma
Four days ago spot sat right on the gamma flip, and this map said below 74K, hedging adds to moves. BTC broke 74K and ran to 72.6K.
Today spot sits well under the flip. 73,524 against 75,278.
That's negative gamma. Dealer hedging adds to moves here, both ways.
The call wall moved down from 81K to 74K, right on top of the puts. One strike, just above spot.
Reclaim the flip near 75.3K and hedging starts calming moves again.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Options #Crypto
OPTIONS MAP | BTC Gamma
Yesterday spot sat just above the gamma flip, with walls at 74K and 81K. BTC spent the day inside a 1% range.
Today it's slipped just under the flip. 75,850 against 75,984.
That's the line where dealer hedging stops dampening moves and starts adding to them. It's a hair away, so call it balanced.
The walls haven't moved. Calls stacked at 81K, puts at 74K.
Above the flip, hedging calms moves. Below 74K, it adds to them.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Options #Crypto
PERPS + SPOT | BTC and ETH Positioning
Four days ago we flagged the biggest long liquidation pockets just under 75K and 2,200. By the next morning BTC hit 73.5K and ETH 2,089. Then 72.6K and 2,003.
The other half hasn't happened. US spot is still selling at a discount.
BTC open interest is flat on the week while price is down about 3%. ETH is different. Its open interest is down about 6%. Leverage is leaving.
The heatmaps flipped. The biggest pockets now sit above, near 76K and 2,250.
The discount closing is still the tell.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
PERPS + SPOT | BTC and ETH Positioning
Yesterday we said watch 75K and the US spot discount. 75K held again. The discount still hasn't moved. BTC is 75.8K.
The flush cleared some leverage. It's already back. On the 7-day chart, open interest is flat while price is down about 3%. Funding is still positive, so longs are paying to hold. Sellers still lead the delta on every timeframe.
ETH's spot discount narrowed a little. Funding is positive and delta is still falling.
On the heatmaps, the biggest long liquidation pockets sit just under 75K and 2,200.
The discount closing is still the tell.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Sunday's official read was -1.00 at 75.8K. BTC is 73.2K now. The macro read hasn't moved.
Still -1.00. Still zero of five drivers helping.
The dollar is up 1.8% in three months. Global liquidity is down 1.9%. Bond stress is up about 14%. Real yields rose again this week.
Price fell over 3%. The headwind stayed.
Wait for liquidity to turn.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Yesterday's daily read eased to -0.90 at 76.0K. Sunday's official read puts it back at -1.00. BTC is 75.8K.
Last Sunday was -0.80 at 77.4K. A week later, all five drivers are headwinds and BTC is 2% lower.
The dollar is up 1.6% in three months. Global liquidity is down 1.6%. Bond stress is up about 17%.
Real yields went back to full headwind without a new rise. The three-month window rolled past a lower August reading.
Wait for liquidity to turn.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
Four days ago both trend reads were short. BTC was 75.8K, ETH 2,234. Now 73.5K and 2,045.
ETH has read short in every post since 20 Oct, from 2,397. That's 15% lower.
BTC flipped short on 25 Oct near 80.1K, on an updated model. 8% lower since.
ETH's score fell from -0.17 to -0.50, on an updated model. It was close to a flip. Now both sit far from one.
The first long flip changes this.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
ETH has read short in every post since 20 Oct. ETH was 2,397. It's 2,234 now.
BTC flipped short on 25 Oct near 80.1K, on an updated model. It's 5% lower since.
Both scores held flat today. BTC sits at -0.50, still far from a flip. ETH sits at -0.17, close but not moving. Price isn't moving either.
The first long flip changes this. Until then, there's nothing to guess.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Four days ago this feed said defensive until a trend turns long and volume turns with it. BTC was 75.8K. It's 73.5K now.
Neither turned. Volume sank further below its signal.
Every medium-term trend still reads short. Stablecoins are still well below their mean, a touch less weak than last week. Microstructure reads bearish. Macro liquidity sits near its mean.
The long-term trend is still up. Still the only one.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long and volume turns with it.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Yesterday this feed flagged the internals shifting at 76.0K. BTC is 75.8K now.
One day on, half of it held. The market stayed out of mean-reversion mode. Volume didn't. It slipped back below its signal.
Every medium-term trend still reads short. Stablecoins still sit well below their mean. Microstructure reads bearish. Macro liquidity is only near its mean.
The long-term trend is still up. Nothing else agrees yet.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long and volume turns with it.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
SYSTEMS CHECK | Majors Rotation
The state hasn't changed.
Four days ago: fully defensive. Still is. Since then BTC is down 3%, ETH 4%, SOL 5%.
Since it stepped aside in mid-October: a squeeze to 84.9K, FOMC, a flush to 76.1K, a pump to 81.1K, then 75K taken.
It sat through all of it. BTC is 7% lower than when it stepped aside. ETH 8%. SOL 15%.
No chasing the pump. No catching the knife. 25 days, zero trades.
BTC still leads. ETH holds its point. SOL still scores zero.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
Yesterday both short reads were a touch underwater. A day later, both are back in front.
BTC read short on 25 Oct near 80K, on an updated model. It's 75.5K now, 5.7% lower. Its score fell from -0.17 back to -0.67.
ETH read short on 20 Oct at 2,397, across model updates. It's 2,222 now, 7.3% lower. Its score holds at -0.17.
ETH is still close to a flip. BTC isn't. BTC turning long is still what changes the stance.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
OPTIONS MAP | BTC Gamma
Yesterday spot sat just above the gamma flip, with walls at 74K and 81K. BTC spent the day inside a 1% range.
Today it's slipped just under the flip. 75,850 against 75,984.
That's the line where dealer hedging stops dampening moves and starts adding to them. It's a hair away, so call it balanced.
The walls haven't moved. Calls stacked at 81K, puts at 74K.
Above the flip, hedging calms moves. Below 74K, it adds to them.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Options #Crypto
OPTIONS MAP | BTC Gamma
BTC held 75K today. Now it's sitting right on the options line that matters most this week.
The gamma flip is near 75.9K. Spot is just above it.
If dealers sit the usual way, their hedging above the flip tends to dampen moves. Below it, hedging can speed them up.
The big walls: calls near 81K, puts near 74K. Almost evenly matched.
That's a map, not a call. Short-dated Deribit options only, and it resets after tomorrow's expiry.
Lose 75.9K and the range gets looser.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #Options #Crypto
PERPS + SPOT | BTC and ETH Positioning
Yesterday we said watch 75K and the US spot discount. 75K held again. The discount still hasn't moved. BTC is 75.8K.
The flush cleared some leverage. It's already back. On the 7-day chart, open interest is flat while price is down about 3%. Funding is still positive, so longs are paying to hold. Sellers still lead the delta on every timeframe.
ETH's spot discount narrowed a little. Funding is positive and delta is still falling.
On the heatmaps, the biggest long liquidation pockets sit just under 75K and 2,200.
The discount closing is still the tell.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
PERPS + SPOT | BTC and ETH Positioning
Yesterday this feed said watch 75K and the discount. BTC tagged 74.7K and bounced. The discount didn't budge.
The US spot discount sits near -0.17 on both BTC and ETH, about where it was. Spot still isn't buying the bounce.
Open interest and funding barely moved. No one is leaning hard either way.
The big liquidity pools now sit just under price, near 75K on BTC and 2,200 on ETH. Above, BTC's next pool is near 81K.
Still waiting on spot.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Yesterday's daily read eased to -0.90 at 76.0K. Sunday's official read puts it back at -1.00. BTC is 75.8K.
Last Sunday was -0.80 at 77.4K. A week later, all five drivers are headwinds and BTC is 2% lower.
The dollar is up 1.6% in three months. Global liquidity is down 1.6%. Bond stress is up about 17%.
Real yields went back to full headwind without a new rise. The three-month window rolled past a lower August reading.
Wait for liquidity to turn.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
MACRO DRIVERS | What moves crypto
Yesterday this feed read -1.00, the bottom of the scale. Today it's -0.90.
One driver eased. Real yields slipped back, so they're still rising, just slower than their 12 month pace.
The rest haven't moved. The dollar is still firming. Global and US net liquidity are still shrinking over three months. Bond stress is still up about 17% in three months.
Still zero of five drivers helping. One fewer pushing at full force.
Context only. It never overrides the trend models.
NFA. Research only.
#Macro #BTC #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
ETH has read short in every post since 20 Oct. ETH was 2,397. It's 2,234 now.
BTC flipped short on 25 Oct near 80.1K, on an updated model. It's 5% lower since.
Both scores held flat today. BTC sits at -0.50, still far from a flip. ETH sits at -0.17, close but not moving. Price isn't moving either.
The first long flip changes this. Until then, there's nothing to guess.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
TREND MODELS | BTC + ETH
Yesterday both short reads were back in front. They still are.
BTC read short on 25 Oct near 80K, on an updated model. It's 76.0K now, 5% lower. Its score lifted from -0.67 to -0.50 as price held 75K.
ETH read short on 20 Oct at 2,397, across model updates. It's 2,246 now, 6.3% lower. Its score holds at -0.17, still the closer of the two to a flip.
BTC turning long is still what changes the stance.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Yesterday this feed flagged the internals shifting at 76.0K. BTC is 75.8K now.
One day on, half of it held. The market stayed out of mean-reversion mode. Volume didn't. It slipped back below its signal.
Every medium-term trend still reads short. Stablecoins still sit well below their mean. Microstructure reads bearish. Macro liquidity is only near its mean.
The long-term trend is still up. Nothing else agrees yet.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long and volume turns with it.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
1D DASHBOARD | Trend, Liquidity + Internals
Yesterday this feed stayed defensive at 75.5K. BTC tagged 74.7K overnight, then held. It's 76.0K now.
Still no trend change. But the internals are shifting.
BTC's medium-term score lifted from -0.67 to -0.50. Stablecoins bounced off their weakest reading. Volume is above its signal for a third close. The regime just moved to neutral.
Every medium-term trend is still short. The long-term trend is still up.
Defensive until a medium-term trend turns long.
NFA. Research only.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #Crypto
