THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM JUST BROKE IN TOKYO Japan’s 30-year bond yield hit 3.41% today. That number means nothing to you. Here’s why it should terrify you. Japan owes 230% of everything it produces. It’s the most indebted nation in human history. For 35 years, they kept the lights on by borrowing at near-zero rates. That era ended this morning. Here’s What Just Happened Core inflation is running at 3.0%. Government bond yields are spiking to levels not seen since 1999. China just conducted its 25th military incursion near Japanese waters this year. Japan is now forced to spend 2% of GDP on defense … nearly 9 trillion yen annually. The Bank of Japan is trapped between two impossible choices: raise rates and trigger a debt collapse, or keep rates low and watch inflation destroy savings. They chose door number two. Why You Should Care Every major bank, hedge fund, and institution on Earth has borrowed yen at cheap rates and invested it elsewhere for 30 years. This “carry trade” could be worth anywhere from $350 billion to $4 trillion. Nobody knows the real number because it’s hidden in derivatives. When Japan’s system breaks, this money unwinds. Fast. The last time we saw a preview … July 2024 … the Nikkei dropped 12.4% in a single day. The Nasdaq fell 13%. That was a small tremor. The earthquake is coming. The Math Is Simple! Japan’s government pays interest on $9 trillion in debt. Every 0.5% increase in rates costs them $45 billion annually. At current yields, debt service will consume 10% of all tax revenue. That’s the death spiral threshold. The yen is trading at 157 to the dollar. If it strengthens to 152, the entire carry trade becomes unprofitable. Unwinding begins. Emerging market currencies could drop 10-15%. The Nasdaq could fall 12-20% as funds are forced to sell. What Happens Next December 18-19, the Bank of Japan meets. Markets are pricing 51% odds they raise rates another 0.25%. If they do, volatility explodes. If they don’t, inflation accelerates and the problem gets worse. There is no way out. Japan’s fiscal dominance is now permanent. They must keep the yen weak to service their debt. This means the free money that powered global markets since 1990 is ending. The Bottom Line Interest rates worldwide are going up 0.5-1.0% permanently. Not because of inflation. Because the world’s largest creditor nation can no longer subsidize global growth. Your mortgage, your car loan, your credit card … all repricing higher. Stock valuations built on cheap money … all compressing. The everything bubble … all deflating. This is not a recession. This is a regime change. The largest liquidity engine in financial history just seized up, and most people won’t understand what happened until their portfolios are down 30%. Tokyo broke the world today. You’ll feel it tomorrow.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Read the full data driven deep dive article - open.substack.com/pub/shanak…

BTC 从高点 126,199 来算（现价 84,326.1718 取值），跌了大概 33.18%，但如果要涨回去，需要涨 49.66%。这是个很简单的数学游戏，但是： 一般的 KOL 会得到一个结论 —— 涨回去比跌下来难得多的结论，然后告诉你他提前空仓是多么聪明，但我想说的是： 如果你在这个位置做空，你爆仓也会非常容易。 记住，对于 BTC 来说流动性的减少一定是双向的，不可能是单向的。

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先说为什么小所会崩盘，这里面的核心是在交易量不充足的情况下，交易所的做市商不可避免的要成为用户的对手盘。 我们平时在交易所的交易会分为 maker 和 taker 两个部分，maker 挂单，taker 吃单，挂单和吃单价格一致则交易撮合成功。那么这里面就会有个问题，我在 10 万的价格开空，不代表会有人在 10 万的价格开多，那么这个订单就无法成交，因此这就需要做市商在订单簿提供流动性。 聪明的你一定会问了，如果币价跌了我平仓赚了钱怎么办呢？因此交易所的做市商除了会跟用户做对手盘之外，还会在其他交易所做对冲，这样你赢钱了它才有钱付给你。 那么在哪个交易所对冲最好呢？没错，99% 的做市商对冲的第一选择就是币安。对冲的逻辑很简单，你开 1 万美金的多单，做市商就在币安开 1 万美金的多单，你平仓它就平仓。当然，实际操作下来的对冲手段很多，包括现货、期权都可以成为对冲的手段，这个先留个坑以后再说。 如果交易所严格按照这个逻辑执行，那么通常情况它是不会暴雷的。但是人都是贪婪的，从数学上来讲用户开合约就一定会输，因此交易所的做市商一定不会完全对冲，他们会保留一部分对用户的风险敞口。因此，理论上交易所的做市商也有被强平甚至穿仓的风险，所以也就有了风控（再留一个坑）。 另一个点在于，在那轮暴跌中做市商的币安账户很可能也爆仓了。但其实到这里都不是问题，交易所的做市商亏钱没什么大不了，毕竟是印钞机假以时日总是能赚回来的。 但，如果大家去细想就会发现一个华点 —— 交易所的做市商无论是在币安的账户还是在跟用户对赌的时候都是要拿出真金白银的，那么请问它的钱从何而来？ 没错的，兄弟，没错的。它们是在用你的钱和你对赌，赢了你的钱归它，输了别人的钱归你，输不起了就爆雷了。由于数学上来讲，散户总是输多赢少，因此这个模式通常不会出问题 —— 但昨天不通常。 对，FTX 就是这么凉的。 以上。 所以，如果你还在小交易所里有钱，那么我建议你早点提出来。