Magician - Investor - World Citizen
Las Vegas, NV
Joined June 2013
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- Following281
- Followers24.7K
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1031ent retweeted
it said "Apt 4A. Come over. I made banana bread."
4A was the apartment next to mine. i'd lived next to it for two years. i had never seen anyone go in or out.
i knocked. the door opened and a woman in her 70s, holding a plate, said "you took your time."
her name was Margaret. she told me she'd been watching the network wars from day one, because her granddaughter set up her router and told her the name was "something she could change if she wanted." she'd just never had a reason to.
i said "how did you know my name?"
she said "the mail carrier yells it every morning when he drops off your packages. these walls are thin, dear."
she handed me a slice of banana bread and said "i've got a lot of ideas. i've just been waiting for someone to ask."
then she opened her laptop. she had a list. a whole page. "Bill Wi The Science Fi." "The LAN Before Time." "Wu-Tang LAN." "Tell My Wi-Fi Love Her."
i said "Margaret, you're a legend."
she said "i know. i've been up since 5 working on this."
we sat there for two hours going through the list. she picked "Silence of the LANs" for herself, and that night it appeared at the top of everyone's screen.
the whole floor went quiet for about a minute. then 4C changed theirs to "We Bow To Margaret." then everybody else followed.
we finally had a floor meeting last month, in the hallway. nine people. we had never met in person.
Margaret brought banana bread.
somebody asked who started it.
i said "it was Margaret."
she said "it was Dennis."
i've decided i'm going with Margaret.
1031ent retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: Google Gemini can now analyze any stock like a Wall Street analyst (for free).
Here are 10 insane Gemini prompts that replace $4,000/month Bloomberg terminals:
Save this 🔖
1031ent retweeted
What % of population pays % of income taxes?
White: 59% pays 72%
Hispanic: 19% pays 10%
Black: 13% pays 6%
Asian: 6% pays 8%
Other: 3% pays 4%
Who pays income taxes?
Top 1% pays 40%
Top 10% pays 72%
Top 25% pays 87%
Top 50% pays 97%
The privilege Leftists keep taking about…
1031ent retweeted
모건스탠리 80페이지짜리 리포트 투척:
"중간선거 개미털기 끝났다,
2027년 하이퍼스케일러 케펙스(CAPEX) 1.6조 달러 그대로 간다"
미국 중간선거 끝나자마자 주가 좀 밀렸다고 AI 거품론 또 스멀스멀 올라오니까,
모건스탠리가 바로 80장짜리 두툼한 리포트로 시장 뚝배기 깨러 등판함 ㅋㅋ
결론부터 박자면 "쫄지 말고 줍줍(Buy the Drop)해라"임.
선거 때문에 텍사스나 오하이오 데이터센터 인허가 좀 깐깐해져서 2028년 프로젝트 중 일부(약 20%, 5GW 규모)가 2029년으로 1년쯤 밀리는 건 있어도,
2027년 케펙스(CAPEX) 전망치는 1.6조 달러, 2028년 1.8조 달러 규모로 사실상 그대로 유지된다고 못박음.
핵심 포인트 털어봄:
• 2027년 케펙스(CAPEX) 1.6조 달러 불변: 빅테크들 AI 인프라 투자 취소나 축소가 아니라 프로젝트 일정만 살짝 길어지는(elongate) 것뿐임.
오히려 공급망 과열 식혀주고 데이터센터 컴퓨팅 임대료는 더 올려주는 효과가 남.
• 쩐의 전쟁, 체급 높은 놈이 다 먹는 판:
컴퓨팅 파워 부족하고 규제 빡세질수록 막대한 현금 쌓아둔 하이퍼스케일러 대장들이 다 해먹음.
아마존 $AMZN, 메타 $META, 알파벳 $GOOGL, 마이크로소프트 $MSFT 비중확대 유지 박음
• 우주선 띄우는 우리형도 포함:
스페이스X $SPCX 도 케펙스(CAPEX) 및 AI 인프라 핵심 플레이어로 당당히 비중확대 리스트에 올라감.
엔비디아 $NVDA 역시 하이퍼스케일러는 아니지만 전력당 토큰 뽑아내는 효율 대장이라 당연히 비중확대 유지.
• 전력/데이터센터 수혜주 줍기:
중간선거 노이즈로 과도하게 두들겨 맞은 데이터센터 공급망/전력주 줍줍 추천함.
에퀴닉스 $EQIX 랑 비(非)텍사스 비중 높은 전력 쉘 공급업체인 테라울프 $WULF, 라이엇 플랫폼즈 $RIOT, 헛8 $HUT, 어플라이드 디지털 $APLD 매력적이라고 봄.
(반대로 텍사스 노출도 높은 마라 홀딩스 $MARA, 사이퍼 마이닝 $CIFR 등은 프로젝트 지연 리스크 주의하라고 경고)
결국 요약하면,
선거 끝나고 정치적 불확실성 때문에 데이터센터 좀 늦어지는 건 AI 사이클의 수명을 더 길게 연장해줄 뿐이지 AI 랠리 사망선고가 절대 아님.
빅테크들의 1조 달러 넘는 케펙스(CAPEX) 집행 의지는 확고하니까 이번 조정을 쫄아서 던지지 말고 알짜배기 대장주들 줍는 기회로 삼으라는 거임
Not financial advice
1031ent retweeted
🚨 BITCOIN IS FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN FOR THE FOURTH TIME IN A ROW!
Every red year on this chart has one thing in common.
All four are U.S. midterm election years.
The midterms happened five days ago.
You have to be an idiot if you don't see how simple the pattern is:
→ Bear year: the year after the peak. -85%, -84%, -77%, and this time -53%
→ Pre-bull: the year after the midterms, historically one of the strongest stretches for U.S. stocks
→ 1st bull: the halving year. Next one lands ~April 2028
→ 2nd bull: the peak. Last three came ~526, ~548 and ~534 days after the halving. Nearly the same clock EVERY time.
Two things are different this time.
The crash was smaller. -53% vs -77% last cycle. ETFs and institutions are dampening the swings.
And it came early. The low hit 268 days after the peak. Every previous bottom took 363 to 406.
So either the bottom is already in at $58.6K, or the cycle says the real one is due right about now.
If the pattern holds (it will tho), 2027 is the year everyone wishes they'd been paying attention to.
Follow if you don't want to skip this cycle.
1031ent retweeted
Dane Cook is 54. His wife is 27.
They started dating when she was 18 and he was 45.
Do you see this as an issue?
1031ent retweeted
先日のニューヨークでのムスリム警官による犬処分未遂に続いて、ムスリムを警官にすると権限を不当に行使する場面が収められた動画です。
ニューヨークの第6分署の管轄において、住民の家族がメモリアルデーのバーベキューを開催していたところ、ムスリムの警官が家族の敷地に所有者の男性が許可していないにも関わらず裏庭に入ってきて、IDを見せろと要求し、音楽を流すのをやめてバーベキューで豚を食べるのをやめるように職権を濫用しました。
家主はムスリム警官に自分の敷地から出て行くように命じましたが、ムスリム警官は執拗に音楽を流す事と豚肉を食べさせるのをやめさせようと家族に詰め寄り、何度も立ち退きを拒否しましたが、最終的には立ち退きました。
動画に収められているのはその衝突の後半の部分と、その後に家主が分署に抗議に行って別の警官に事件について説明している場面です。
ムスリムは公職に就けばイスラム教のイデオロギーを実践するために職権を濫用する事しかしません。
日本ではムスリムをいかなる公職にも就かせてはなりません。
1031ent retweeted
To understand the midterms from the perspective of many long-time Collin County, Texas residents, you have to start with how fast the place changed
In roughly 5-7 years, people who grew up here watched their schools, neighborhoods, and workplaces shift at a pace most of the country never sees
I’ve lived in Allen since the 1970s
Both of my sons graduated from Allen High School, one in 2016, the other in 2021
The difference in those graduating classes was IMPOSSIBLE to miss
The student body, the names on the program, the overall makeup of the school had changed dramatically in just 5 years 😳
That wasn’t my imagination
What happened in Collin County over the last 5–7 years was unusually fast ⬇️
According to Census American Community Survey estimates:
• Collin County’s Asian Indian population nearly doubled in a recent five-year period, rising from roughly 81,000 to about 149,000
• Frisco went from a low single-digit share of Indian residents in the early 2010s to nearly 20% of the city (~43,000 people) by the early-to-mid 2020’s
• Plano has roughly 37,000, McKinney about 16,000, and Allen around 9,200
This is one of the largest and fastest-growing Indian American communities IN THE USA
A major driver has been the H-1B visa and Optional Practical Training (OPT) pipeline into tech, IT services, and finance
The DFW area ranked among the TOP metros in the U.S. for new H-1B approvals in recent years…tens of thousands in a very short period of time
Nationally, about 70% of H-1B visas go to workers from India
Frisco and Plano have high volumes of filings, many from large Indian IT staffing and consulting firms that place workers at client sites, alongside U.S. companies that expanded or relocated here
Texas leaders ACTIVELY RECRUITED those companies with incentives 💰💸💰
The jobs followed, and the federal visa system supplied a large share of the “skilled” workers
The result showed up quickly in schools, neighborhoods, restaurants, grocery stores, temples, airports and workplaces
My younger son graduated magna cum laude with a degree in data science last December and is still waiting tables
My older son works at a large financial institution in the Northlake area
When I visited the office, the large majority of workers were of Indian heritage
These are NOT isolated anecdotes
Entry-level competition in data and tech roles has been INTENSE, and long-time residents have watched the demographic composition of their towns change at a pace most places NEVER experience, EVER
This is why many native Collin County residents say the place feels different and why local elections have shifted (hint: they mostly voted blue)
The change was real, measurable, and unusually, insanely RAPID
We’re talking breakneck speed rapid
Understanding the numbers and the mechanisms (corporate recruitment + H-1B/OPT concentration) helps explain what people have seen with their own eyes 👀
If you’ve lived through this in Collin County or another fast-growing suburb, what has the pace of change looked like where you are?
I know many people have heard the stories, and those who don’t live here may think we have been exaggerating
We’re not and we never were
Is there a “fix” for this?
If so, how?
Most of our friends and family live in Collin County, and most are discussing moving to another state, away from their native state
Something they never thought they would think of doing, but they are definitely saying it now…and actively looking for a new place to live
Texans have been sold out by leadership, and without the incentives Texas leadership offered, perhaps they would not have lost last week’s midterm elections
Who knows?
Yes, Texans are proud of our state, and have *mostly* been happy to be a “business friendly” state
But, at what cost???
1031ent retweeted
NYPD Officers Stop Woman Walking Her Dog at 3 AM in Manhattan Bystanders Intervene
Around 3 a.m. in Murray Hill, two NYPD officers stopped a woman walking her small leashed dog. She said she had the walk signal and repeatedly asked what law she broke. One officer briefly held her arm while they discussed a possible summons. Bystanders filmed, called 911, and demanded a supervisor. The dog was never taken.
The long clip shows officers struggling to clearly state the exact violation. No official statement has confirmed the basis for the stop. Claims about the officers’ religion or motive come only from appearance and captions, not the footage itself take a look what do you see?
When a 3 a.m. stop requires bystanders to step in and officers can’t immediately explain the law do they make them up as they go?
1031ent retweeted
My American friends,
If you don't understand this, you will never beat your real enemy.
On Tuesday, voters rejected data centers almost everywhere they were on the ballot. Within hours, the left was calling AI executives to testify and demanding a national moratorium.
Power bills, jobs, safety. That's the official story. It's not the real one.
The real story is that the institutional left runs on three things: scarcity, narrative, and money. Manufactured scarcity in housing, healthcare and education, so someone has to allocate it. A captured narrative, so you accept it. And a money printer, so you pay for it without ever voting on it.
AI is the first technology in history that hits all three at once.
It makes the $200,000 degree look absurd. It makes the expert's monopoly on truth disappear. It pushes prices toward zero in a system that needs inflation to survive its debt.
They're not fighting AI because it's dangerous to you. They're fighting it because it's dangerous to them.
Read this. Understand it. Then stop attacking the people building abundance, and start fighting the ones who need you poor so they can administer you.
AI isn't a threat to humanity. It's an audit.
1031ent retweeted
𝗢𝗡 𝗕𝗨𝗕𝗕𝗟𝗘𝗦
I remember the dot-com bubble well. From the first trading day of 1995 to its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq-100 went from 398 to 4,705, a gain of 𝟭,𝟬𝟴𝟮%.
The excitement was enormous. So was the price investors paid for it.
𝗖𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗼 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗻. 𝗡𝗩𝗜𝗗𝗜𝗔 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆. Near the March 2000 peak, Cisco traded at roughly 𝟮𝟮𝟬× trailing earnings and 𝟭𝟯𝟬× forward earnings. At the November 6, 2026 close, NVIDIA traded at roughly 𝟮𝟰× trailing earnings and 𝟭𝟯× forward earnings. Cisco’s multiples back then were about nine times and ten times as high, respectively.
𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸𝘀 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝘁?
Approximate forward P/E ratios for a selection of companies across the AI ecosystem, using November 6 prices and analyst consensus estimates.
• Amazon — 𝟮𝟯×
• Microsoft — 𝟮𝟮×
• Alphabet — 𝟮𝟬×
• Broadcom — 𝟭𝟵×
• Meta — 𝟭𝟵×
• TSMC — 𝟭𝟴×
• Oracle — 𝟭𝟱×
• NVIDIA — 𝟭𝟯×
• Sandisk — 𝟰×
• Micron — 𝟰×
• Samsung Electronics — 𝟮.𝟳×
• SK hynix — 𝟮.𝟯×
Several of these stocks look remarkably cheap to me at those earnings estimates. And the multiples are extremely far from what investors paid for the biggest names of the dot-com era.
𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲’𝘀 𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗼 𝗮 𝗽𝗵𝘆𝘀𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲.
By late 2002, about 𝟵𝟬% of the fiber installed in long-haul networks across Europe and North America was still unused, according to TeleGeography. Back then, the buildout had outrun demand. So far in AI, demand has outrun the buildout. Shortages of advanced chips, limited access to power, and permitting delays are slowing new data centers.
Meanwhile, AI models are improving incredibly fast. They can tackle longer, more demanding tasks on their own. On some tasks, they already outperform humans by a wide margin. That opens up ever more uses and helps explain why demand is growing so quickly.
𝗧𝗼 𝗺𝗲, 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗺 𝗼𝗳 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝘁-𝗰𝗼𝗺 𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬.
1031ent retweeted
[속보] 11월 반도체·기술주 피바다 만든 주범, 또 '헤지펀드 뚝배기 깨진 나비효과'였다 🤯
개미들 "AI 버블 꺼지냐" 벌벌 떨면서 손절 칠 때, 배후에서 터진 진짜 사건의 전말 까발려짐. 알고 보니 멀티스트래티지 헤지펀드들이 줄줄이 깡통 차고 운용팀 모가지 날리면서 시장가로 집어던진 기계적 투매였음 ㅋㅋ
내막 까보면 진짜 레전드 코미디 그 자체임:
• 월아이 캐피털(Walleye Capital): 2025년 80억 달러짜리가 1년 만에 170억 달러로 떡상했다고 어깨 뽕 잔뜩 들어갔는데, 발야스니 출신 스타 매니저가 주식 롱숏에서 초대형 사고 치고 10월 한 달에만 -5.9% 처박음. 11월 5일 주식 총괄이랑 매니저들 전격 해고(모가지 싹둑) 엔딩.
• 엔지니어스 게이트(Engineers Gate): 퀀트 시스템 펀드랍시고 깝치다가 10월에 -5.5% 두들겨 맞고 주식 운용팀 '신세시스(Synthesis)' 팀원들 당일 단체 해고 후 자본 싹 다 회수 들어감.
• 단 5거래일 만에 200억 달러(약 27.6조 원) 패닉셀: 헤지펀드 놈들 잘리고 강제 청산당하느라 2025년 초부터 22개월 동안 악착같이 모아온 AI 순매수 포지션을 단 5일 만에 100% 싹 다 털어버림. 일주일에 두 번 연속 '6-시그마 모멘텀 쇼크(수백만 거래일에 한 번 나올 확률)' 터지면서 호가창 진공 청소기로 밀어버림 ㅎㄷㄷ
• 거대 AI 펀드 'VARA'의 콜옵션 도박 멸망: 블랙록, HRT 출신들이 만든 401억 달러짜리 매머드 펀드인데, 포트폴리오 꼬라지 보니까 전체의 58.4%(234억 달러)가 '콜옵션' 롱이었음. 나머지 현물도 중소형 AI 전력·네오클라우드·메모리 몰빵.
• 딜러들의 '델타 언와인딩' 연쇄 폭탄: 10월 기술주 흔들리자 VARA 펀드 한 달 만에 -33% 폭락함. 234억 달러 콜옵션 가치가 쓰레기통으로 들어가니까, 옵션 팔아줬던 월가 마켓메이커들이 리스크 헷지하려고 현물 주식을 시장가로 내던지는 '델타 언와인딩' 트리거 발동. 주가 하락이 또 하락을 부르는 지옥 랠리 완성됨.
결국 기업 펀더멘털 문제가 아니라, 레버리지 잔뜩 땡겨서 콜옵션 롱 치던 헤지펀드 뚝배기 깨지면서 마진콜+강제 청산 매물이 쏟아져 나온 구조적 수급 쇼크였음. 스마트 머니랍시고 꺼드럭거리더니 개미들보다 더 처참하게 빤스런 침 ㅋㅋ
"Not financial advice"
1031ent retweeted
Are these really problems that the government is supposed to fix? The 10th Amendment gives power to the people and to the States that are not covered by the Federal government.
Maybe the true problem is we've outsourced solving these problems to strangers in a distant city.
1031ent retweeted
$BTC: A Bitcoin Price Model Frozen in 2012 Still Explains 93.1% of Log-Price Variation 14 Years Later.
Think about that. Same exponent. Same intercept. No recalibration.
The numbers are remarkable:
• 93.1% R² : original 2012 model, unchanged.
• 96.2% R² : continuously refitted model.
• 44% less unexplained variance per doubling of Bitcoin's age, historically, even with frozen parameters.
• 5,226 walk-forward days: Bitcoin closed above its P10 lower valuation reference 88.9% of the time.
Bitcoin has survived crashes, halvings, exchange failures, and regulatory shocks.
Yet its long-term mathematical scaling relationship has persisted and its historical fit has strengthened.
Here's what makes this extraordinary:
Anyone can fit a mathematical equation to the past.
Bitcoin's equation was frozen in 2012. The next 14 years of history weren't known when it was fitted.
The remarkable discovery isn't that Bitcoin follows a power law. It's that 14 years of new data haven't destroyed the original relationship.
