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Prediction market prices are set, at the margin, by giant proprietary trading firms in NYC and Chicago who are filtering data from pollsters and professional forecasters (Nate Silver etc) and incorporating it in real time — trying to frame it as “the little guy who knows his home town better than any pollster” is so fucking disingenuous.
Last night, the power to decide what America sees changed hands.
I have spent a ton of time in DC over the last few months. The elites were certain the markets were off. I heard many variants of “no chance markets are right about X” and “I’ve been in politics for a decade. ‘These people’ don’t really know much.”
Last night, ‘these people’ beat the elites.
Prediction market favorites won 479 of the first 487 races. That’s 98%.
The elites live in a bubble. They theorize, write, ideate, and mistake credentials for an understanding of lives they’ve never lived. They don’t see and feel what the everyday man, on the ground, sees and feels.
Knowledge is not exclusive to the elites but scattered across millions of people.
Someone knows their hometown better than any national pundit. Someone has followed a local race passionately for months. Someone has followed a local race dispassionately for months. Someone notices a shift in their community before it makes the headlines. Someone is shaped by an incident at work. Someone is shaped by what’s getting harder or easier for their families.
Each holds a piece of the picture that no expert can see in full.
And for the longest time, that knowledge had no way to reach the rest of the world.
For generations, election night meant turning on the TV and waiting for a handful of people to tell you what happened.
Prediction markets change that.
You don't need a title, a large following, or an editor to publish you. All you need is a perspective and the conviction to back it.
That changes who holds power over information.
Anyone can see the market. Anyone can contribute to it. Anyone can question it. No title gives you the final word. No gatekeepers can filter your view.
Sometimes the signal can be wrong. But anyone can challenge the consensus and improve it.
And when people consolidate their knowledge together, something remarkable happens: millions of individual perspectives become a signal that we all can learn from.
Over the last few months, the people showed up on Kalshi to tell the world what they were going to do.
Last night, the megaphone was passed to them.
how long until people catch up to the fact that trading on @papertrade_xyz is still heavily +ev especially for ltf with size?
although i dont want to call 100% bottom chart wise, this has to be the bottom sentiment wise.
a month ago everyone was screaming bear market is over 100k soon and now everyone is cautious sad and depressed again.
time to send it imo.
would save alot of people if they read this. but then again, there needs to be someone who goes down with the ship
I obv had and still have what most would consider significant exposure to Binance.
But I also withdrew a much bigger amount the moment rumors spawned, which is why I shitposted about it to warn even when news didn't arrive in feeds yet, just to play it safe as tx were never this fast & cheap.
There were ~43h between the initial FTX rumors and FTX freezing withdrawals. The first paranoid schizo to leave gets clowned 99/100 times for "wasting" effort, but doesn't lose millions in the 1/100 case.
Additionally, for exactly moments like this, I always recommend utilizing leverage alongside strict risk management to minimize capital held on venues in case withdrawals don't succeed.
Always min-max your capital exposure, especially on LTFs. There's never a reason to park inactive liquidity on venues.
Although leverage has the gambling image, it fundamentally remains a capital efficiency tool.
so basically the pmf of crypto is either gambling or theft and the coins that enable gambling or theft (fast tps and privacy) are bullish and the rest is dogshit
this has to be a bug atp @papertrade_xyz
