Full time options/futures trader. I help others on their journey. There’s no magic. This is hard. Do the work you can make great money. Not financial advice.
Earth
Joined November 2009
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My updated Daily Pre-Market Trading checklist…
this helps my brain have conviction in my trades:
——————
- news, news, news ... what's going on in the government/USA/world, Iran, China, chips, bond rates, etc
- where are futures premarket /NQ /ES and BTC (if significantly up or down is there a reason)
- where are indexes premarket/overnight? SPY QQQ
- get perspective… how much has SPX/QQQ dropped or risen recently? Zoom out at least 5-10 days, then 20 days… then 90 days (i like the 4 hr).
- look at tickers that I trade (watchlist) ... Are there significant overnight moves? What's the reason?
- On the morning call .. did @smartertrader Sam mention anything significant related to the market, chip sector or a specific ticker? Good or bad. if so, what's the logic for potentially trading a specific ticker? know the levels
- look at @eWhispers for upcoming earnings
- any econ numbers coming out? What are they? How can they affect the market? What time are they released? 8:30a ? 10a ? or the next day and should I hold my positions overnight?? If I hold am I okay with the positions not working and losing the money?
- is there a bond auction today? Which bonds? If so, what time? Where are bond rates?
- any FOMC minutes, speakers, ... If so, what time?
- take note of legit X accounts that post unusual/significant market/ticker things and news
- are there upgrades/downgrades/earnings and or other ticker related info for the ones I trade. Is there a ticker I should be looking at that I haven’t lately?
- are there any significant news related to specific ticker that I trade (whether in a position or not)
- is it OPEX week or Triple Witch?? how can it affect my positions?? Use the Nasdaq trading calendar (link below) print it out!
... then I ask myself ‘Is today a day I can add risk? (aka increase my trade size) based on any of the above
nasdaq.com/trading-calend… x.com/faststocknewss investing.com/economic-calen… x.com/eWhispers
Noted.
$SPY BOTTOMS WHEN $VIX CAPITULATES AND THEN CRUSHES. FRIDAY WE GOT NEITHER 👀
$SPY and $VIX move opposite. Every real bottom follows the same sequence: $VIX explodes to an extreme, then gets crushed while $SPY is still near the lows. Only then is the bottom real.
How it looked at the actual bottoms:
Last year — Apr 2025:
• $VIX printed 60, closed at 52.33 the day $SPY made its closing low
• Next day it CRUSHED -36% in a single session
• -46% within two weeks
This year — Mar 2026:
• $VIX peaked at a 31.05 close, $SPY bottomed 3 days later
• Then $VIX crushed -41% within 11 sessions of the low
Now look at Friday:
• $VIX peaked at just a 28.18 close on Thursday — lower than even the shallow March dip's peak
• Friday it closed at 25.64, down -9%
-9% is not a crush. Real crushes are -30% to -46%. And there was no capitulation spike before it either.
No $VIX spike + no $VIX crush = no confirmed $SPY bottom. That's the whole formula.
What I'm watching next week: $VIX spiking into the high 30s or 40s means capitulation is starting. A 30%+ crush after that means it's done. Until one of those prints, this bounce is unconfirmed.
Mmm hmmm. Not the same as the others. That’s intentional by design…. And I can delete conversations if I want to… forever.
@Muse
Mark Zuckerberg called his AI live on camera.
first words: "Hey Mark... just on it, boss."
then Joanna Stern asked if it's subscribed to her YouTube. it checked and said "Nope."
and the models behind it just got upgraded for everyone:
> Active Memory and Active Focus from Muse Wonder, now in Muse and Meta AI
> 2.4x less likely to forget critical info
> 67% better at self-correcting and finishing everyday tasks
less repeating yourself. fewer dead ends.
36k followers and he has to ask grok if the Jensen China Spy story is bearish or bullish … smh 🤦♀️
Btw, I still can’t find the US Officials Statement. Anybody?
While this is all suddenly circulating, I can’t find anything real that’s new.
US officials reportedly believe Jensen Huang had a “romantic relationship” with an alleged Chinese intelligence operative.
Truly wild to see evolution of $NVDA bear case over last 18 months:
• DeepSeek trained a frontier AI model on a microwave
• Hyperscalers are about to cut CapEx (they raised it)
• Custom silicon will kill the GPU (they ordered more GPUs)
• Circular financing is propping up entire AI industry
• Jensen Huang is allegedly in a situationship with China’s Ministry of State Security
Just crazy we’ve officially reached the point where Nvidia bear case has moved from questioning AI demand to questioning Jensen Huang’s dating life 😅
FYI - you cannot delete your Grok Bot conversations without deleting your entire Cursor account. That gives me the heebie-jeebies. That’s like giving your soul to the devil. 👿
Can’t delete my Cursor account until my ‘free usage’ date is up in 11 days. Um, make that make sense. That’s what started me down the deletion path. Deleted all the side bots bc I don’t want it doing anything when the date comes.
I was agitated bc using @grok @bot I kept hitting limits with hardly doing anything. I just paid the annual X Premium+ subscription so I’m not paying more. Last year I got stuck with two subscriptions 1 for X and 1 for Grok.
I paid my annual X subscription before the ‘one’ subscriptions were offered and they don’t prorate what you already have so I decided not to use it.. No thanks. 🙂↔️ @Muse is better.
Now here we are with Jensen being accused of a relationship with a Chinese spy. And the White House has agreed with the rumors. It doesn’t matter if it’s real or not. The market won’t like it.
Fridays buying was pathetic. Let’s see where the dust settles.
If you aren’t aware $NVDA is a very large component of the indexes so down we go although I hope I’m wrong.
I recall a conversation I had in Vegas back in July. He said ‘I think NVDA is going to get to $300’ my response ‘Maybe, but what’s it going to take to get there? 78% profit margin isn’t sustainable forever. They are the leader and unless they create something so spectacular things will level out’ I then mentioned that NVDA was the same price Aug ‘24 as it was Aug ‘25.
Wildly I still have a bit of $NVDA stock at $5ish in a Roth.
This just popped into my head. Memory is Econ 101 basic supply & demand. $MU has an edge bc they are one of the only 3-4 companies that make DRAM. Now there are other companies entering the market. $CXMT and recently $NVDA has approached $TSM to produce 3D DRAM.
Remember when $CLX went parabolic during COVID bc they couldn’t meet the demand for disinfectant products? They couldn’t produce those wipes any faster even with all the plants running 24/7.
After that people still use the products and likely more than they did prior to COVID but the demand/supply equalized.
Well … memory is or was the new disinfecting wipes. The Dems ran on controlling data centers. That’s the same as when people were allowed to go outside and weren’t getting sick as much.
Memory is still needed but the demand just got slowed so supply/demand will begin to balance.
Sad and true yet $META is quietly drilling forward with @muse the AI for regular every day people. Honestly, once the critter stand alone device comes out I’m pretty sure it’s going to allow my dementia Mom to stay in her home longer. @Musecases
I won’t have to hire a person at $50/hr to track her meds, etc.
If you’re familiar with dementia you know there’s a paranoia that sets in. They hide things and lie. Family members get the worst of it bc they are perceived as the enemy. I’m truly hopeful.
If anyone is curious about the pace of deterioration AI infrastructure names are seeing from their 52 week high. Here is a table of companies in the WFE, accelerators, neoclouds, optical, and memory market.
Best performer? Nvidia, -25%
Worst performer? Applied Optoelectronics, -80%
This is a non-exhaustive list.
$MU $NVDA $LITE $AMD $DELL $AVGO $LRCX
kinda wild that it's exactly 1 month that /NQ dropped -16.61% from high to low. Things gonna reprice. being patient.
Well there’s 26500 … it’s still a free for all … just a bunch of air underneath. No buyers anywhere. Just none.
Oof! Almost got to 26500 … when do the buyers come?
This is a time when my high school and college friends start texting me … but my girl April is good. I sold the rest her MU and SNDK last week…. And ya know I kept buying the boring shit like MCD for her so she’s good. 👍🏼
I’m just sitting here twiddling my thumbs trying to figure out when this might stop. 🛑 I don’t have an answer. Kinda looks like 26500. Glad I have cash waiting to be put to work.
Worst broker award 🥈 goes to $HOOD no one who actually trades uses it. It’s the Mickey Mouse broker, for kids.
Smoke and mirrors. There isn’t a place where you can look to see your total P&L. That’s by design.
.@RobinhoodApp NOT quite sure what happening with your systems or how your trading..
a friend i know put in a order to but app 320 calls at 5
the spread was 4.8 to 5.4 IT IS LAW that the order need to be reflected MEANS either fill it immediately or have to show her bid and make spread 5 to 5.4
waited 2 min and never reflected..
implies you never even posted the order to the exchange
wow
Mmmm
🚨 KOSPI TRIGGERS CIRCUIT BREAKER AFTER 5% DROP
165 TRILLION WON ERASED FROM THE KOREAN MARKET IN ONE SESSION
DEEP BEAR MARKET NOW LOCKED IN SOUTH KOREA
Holders face immediate mark-to-market losses with trading halted. Most watch global tech flows. Regional liquidity can drain before the next headline arrives.
Save this.
