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These large unstakers just keep selling. Relentlessly.
We genuinely think it will be quite a big cloud cleared from the $HYPE books once they're done.
A lot of liquid funds/desks are probably circling the same idea here. Well capitalised, patient, waiting for the right moment.
We need to try and beat these into a "long because the sellers are mostly out".
$HYPE tornado funded wallet has started selling again this AM - usual behaviour: unstaked HYPE liquid -> start selling via TWAP immediately.
On top of the Tornado entity, there is also another 2 wallet cluster unstaking 1.2m HYPE this week too.
0xcf9bfaf7e7ed48d85f2487b8fed07852a5e93ad1
0xffe664491482ae9db6ba9e55c2ed1ea55c700a52
The playbook is the same each time.
Trump announces tariffs, markets pull back, a deal or "framework" appears, price squeezes back above prior highs.
The first real deadline is Feb 1st (announcements tend to land on or very close to the deadline itself).
There's still a good chance $BTC makes lower lows in Q1/Q2 but before that we'll probably push higher and get a clean rejection.
For now, we are expecting this pullback to play out like previous ones.
$HYPE tornado funded wallet has started selling again this AM - usual behaviour: unstaked HYPE liquid -> start selling via TWAP immediately.
On top of the Tornado entity, there is also another 2 wallet cluster unstaking 1.2m HYPE this week too.
0xcf9bfaf7e7ed48d85f2487b8fed07852a5e93ad1
0xffe664491482ae9db6ba9e55c2ed1ea55c700a52
So, the entire $XMR move was because of this hacker swapping funds.
The wallets still hold 1000+ $BTC and a lot of $LTC.
Scenarios:
1. Hacker rushes to swap the remaining stolen funds into something else. XMR doesn't really go up, because they choose another asset to swap to. Bearish XMR.
2. Hacker rushes to finish the job and converts the remaining assets into XMR. XMR does another +40%.
3. Funds get frozen. Authorities end up sitting on $280m+ of XMR, no further buying pressure and eventually a dump. Bearish XMR.
4. Small side argument: this is actually bullish for $ZEC. A lot of people likely thought "XMR is stronger, sell ZEC and buy XMR", could that could unwind back the other way?
Keeping an eye on $ETH here.
Sitting right at the 200D EMA again, this is the 3rd attempt to reclaim it. The last two failed, so this level matters.
Zooming in, structure does look cleaner. Momentum picking up, and we’re starting to see the early signs you want: higher lows, attempting higher highs.
A clean reclaim + hold of the 200D EMA makes us much more comfortable looking for longs. Until then, this can easily just chop between the 200D EMA and the trendline and frustrate everyone.
US open likely gives direction. If it's weak, downside probably shows itself pretty quickly. If not, then this might finally be the attempt that sticks.
MM's are moving $LIT around.
Exchange listings coming today (more than just Bybit)
Robinhood listing is probably tradable: short the listing wick if we get one? (and close longs into upside wick)
Keeping an eye.
The REAL battle for Bitcoin: the weekly EMA50.
Look how it kept the 2024/2025 bull alive. And when we finally lost it, that's exactly when the Oct 10 flash crash happened. This is a seriously respected EMA.
Psychologically, this is the moment. We need to go now, and go hard.
The faster BTC shows strength (which it is), the faster the "gold/silver rotation" into BTC becomes real. Even if it isn't actually happening, outperformance is enough to make speculative capital believe the story and pile in.
And as we always say: reclaim $100k and that's when CNBC, Reuters, etc start bull posting again, retail wakes up and funds are forced to re-allocate.
Proper battle here.
Definitely a day to be more alert. Feels like Trump will be active.
Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs today around 10am EST (~2hrs time).
Reminder: Trump said a few days ago "IF SUPREME COURT RULES AGAINST TARIFFS, WE'RE SCREWED". If ruled against, he could get abrasive fast (legal system is a "joke", etc etc). That kind of rhetoric could lead to some US risk off: stocks down, DXY down, crypto down. Weirdly, crypto probably handles this best.
That said, a ruling against tariffs does feel relatively priced in at this point (see image below).
We also have a feeling Trump could escalate things with Iran today or tomorrow if the ruling goes against him (distraction from negative news?). Reminder: Iran has said any US strike would be met with strikes on all US bases in neighbouring countries.
Markets are pretty desensitised to oil / Middle East / Trump / mini-war headlines now, but things can still get nasty quickly.
Thinking:
Short term, a ruling in favour of tariffs is the cleanest outcome. Status quo, no new chaos.
If ruled against, likely mostly priced in, maybe some downside wicks from news traders.
The key variable is Trump's commentary after a negative ruling. If he starts openly bashing the legal system, alongside the Fed and multiple countries, that equals chaos. Historically, chaos has been good for Bitcoin.
To add:
Israeli PM’s aircraft, Wing of Zion, has departed from Israel.
For context, on June 13, 2025, at the start of the 12 day Israel-Iran war, Benjamin Netanyahu's plane was also seen leaving Ben-Gurion and landing in Athens amid escalating tensions.
We wouldn't be surprised if US strikes Iran within the next 24-48hrs.
Only real counter-argument is the US often waits for the weekend. June 13 was a Friday, Venezuela happened over a weekend.
$BTC at $94k, we meet again.
The last 4 times we tagged this level, we rejected.
Resistance is resistance until proven otherwise - get acceptance above and a move toward $100k could happen very quickly.
Clean break of $94k, long focus.
Right here, short focus.
Quite a Bitcoin led move today, which is refreshing. Likely because of two things:
1. Chaos hedge? Trump running his mouth, US exodus, just a "safe haven" bid.
2. CME margin hikes making metals more expensive to stay long - rotation into BTC?
CME Group just raised margin requirements, effective today.
If you're long metals, you now need more collateral just to stay in the trade - this usually results in downside.
We wonder if some of that speculative metals money rotates into $BTC?
CPI today at 1:30pm UTC.
We wouldn't be surprised if it comes in a little hotter than expected.
Last month’s print was arguably 'fake': parts of the data were rounded to zero due to missing releases during the government shutdown.
This month has none of those issues and potentially corrects for the mistake last month.
Let's see.
$WHITEWHALE
Update on $WHITEWHALE:
Today, multiple wallets that collectively hold over 12% of supply received $11.44 of SOL each, randomly. Fee top ups ahead of transfers?
We're still eyeing this ponzi meme for a short eventually. It's basically a bet on when the cabal that has cornered supply gives up.
What usually happens:
- it's a trust game, everyone holds, everyone makes money on paper
- then one person says "f this, i'm out"
- trust snaps, selling cascades, morals disappear, everyone just wants the money
All it takes is one of these wallets to sell to potentially trigger a bank run dynamic.
P.S. This is VERY risky.
The World Liberty Multisig sent $10m USD1 to $DOLO (Dolomite) a few mins ago.
World Liberty announced "Markets", their borrow/lend platform today - powered by Dolomite.
Reminder, they also have an RWA product launch this month too, as per a Retuers article from Dec 3rd.
There is a whale unstaking a large amount of $HYPE and selling it immediately.
They still hold $73m worth (top 20 HYPE airdrop recipient).
The plan would be to start looking for longs around the time they stop selling, which is obviously hard to time. That said, it is probably worth paying attention over the next 5–7 days, as a large portion of their supply should be sold by then.
The big question: is it worth shorting?
We would argue yes. We do not think $HYPE can absorb this level of supply and it likely drifts closer to $20. That said, we are far more interested in the long once the overhang clears.
(note: this entity could restake or rebuy. If that happens, the above thesis is invalidated)
Update on $WHITEWHALE:
Today, multiple wallets that collectively hold over 12% of supply received $11.44 of SOL each, randomly. Fee top ups ahead of transfers?
We're still eyeing this ponzi meme for a short eventually. It's basically a bet on when the cabal that has cornered supply gives up.
What usually happens:
- it's a trust game, everyone holds, everyone makes money on paper
- then one person says "f this, i'm out"
- trust snaps, selling cascades, morals disappear, everyone just wants the money
All it takes is one of these wallets to sell to potentially trigger a bank run dynamic.
P.S. This is VERY risky.
$WHITEWHALE
Clearly very supply controlled, and almost certainly cabal driven. One of the wallets involved was behind two large onchain runners last year, tied to a Dubai cabal.
These guys won't hold forever, and any period of stagnation is usually when they start clipping out.
This is the largest holder (chart attached). They bought $15k at the lows, now worth $3m:
8Ldjm2hqbTtcVPYWcLbU5JiU4zjwyBweaCw1S3dgGeKo
Any meaningful movement to exchanges or visible onchain selling likely leads to a fast -30%.
