Independent Thought, Creative Insights, Relentless Discovery. Not investment advice. [email protected] https://teapaw.org/t.co/BmHjJLItKG
Joined January 2017
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So, the $GFL buyout drama continues....Setting that aside, results look good. I had standalone $GFL and Secure guides adding up to $668M of EBITDA and Q3 came in at $679M. Standalone guides implied FY26 EBITDA at $2479M and the new guidance is $2490M to $2495, so either legacy GFL or SES or both are outperforming.
3:10 Value retweeted
$GFL on take private process: The Special Committee has provided interested parties with a final deadline of Nov 9 to deliver their updated proposals, at which time the Special Committee will determine next steps. The strong interest from leading global institutional investors...
3:10 Value retweeted
History of reporting on GFL take-private:
Oct 20: two consortia, one ahead. Competing views among shareholders — low $50s vs closer to $60. Any definitive deal would need a majority-of-minority vote. The named consortium members KKR/ECP/Blackstone vs Brookfield/IFM.
Oct 22: special committee work done. The decision rests with key early PE holder.
Oct 26: primary PE holder looking to structure a rollover of significant stake.
ctfn.news
$GFL #mergers #corpfin #infrastructure #PrivateEquity
Friends, see the link below on what will hopefully be my last substack article on $GFL.
310value.substack.com/p/my-l…
Update. I read the Globe and Mail $GFL article. The article does reference an older JPM report. I think that makes the headline beyond reckless given all of the new information that has surfaced.
Anyone with access to globe and mail? Is this just a rehash of JPM's report from 10/21? If so, that's pretty ballsy given the amount of new information on the $GFL process that has come to light subsequently.
Anyone with access to globe and mail? Is this just a rehash of JPM's report from 10/21? If so, that's pretty ballsy given the amount of new information on the $GFL process that has come to light subsequently.
$GFL shes been a GFL bear forever theglobeandmail.com/business…
Looking forward to reading a thoughtful investor's article on $EROK.
3:10 Value retweeted
$ANT Anthropic is making $ 250bn+ non-cancellable compute commitments with Google, Amazon, and Microsoft through 2033, and semis trade like we are about to drive off a cliff next year
There are three known $ANT locations with dedicated nat gas. None on $TPL and $LB yet. It will be interesting to see next week if we get an announcement that $TPL's Abilene purchase was to support a Bolt/$ANT project - given Eric Schmidt's association with both companies.
Incremental $GFL news...
GFL Environmental pares loss on report BC Partners works on rolling its stake in deal - CTFN seekingalpha.com/news/465744…
Week 13 of $gfl buyout watch. One more merger Monday before earnings call. Debt needs to remain portable. Some combination of GIC, Ontario Teachers, and BC will need to roll. Who’s staying? Who’s going? Price sufficient to win the majority of the minority vote?
More $GFL news....though not too much incrementally from yesterday.
The special committee running GFL Environmental's sale process, as advised by CIBC, has finished its work, CTFN reported Thursday, and key existing equity holders now have critical decisions over the question of rolling their equity which will likely influence the outcome of the deal.
#mergers #infrastructure #privateequity #corpgov #corpfin
$GFL
$GFL @ctfn_news said BC Partners is the final hurdle and wants $55 per share. Why do they care if they are rolling? Likely, they are selling to an affiliated continuation vehicle, which would allow the debt to be portable, while solidifying an exit on their original investment.
$55 should be an easy price for buyers to get to, so the special committee should bring the deal to a vote. Next question is will some holders vote it down? I doubt it.
$GFL - GFL Environmental special committee completes review, BC Partners last obstacle - CTFN seekingalpha.com/news/465614…
3:10 Value retweeted
$GFL
Today's story updated just now with additional background on rollover equity.
#mergers #wastemanagement #corpfin #infrastructure #privateequity
3:10 Value retweeted
We were very lucky to have a long chat with James Davolos. Lots of good insights from him about why inflation and rates are likely to be structurally higher, the business types that will benefit from higher rates, and then some specific examples of companies.
Episode 38!
We got to interview James Davolos, Portfolio Manager and Director of Research of Horizon Kinetics.
James gives an overview of Horizon’s contrarian value approach, we then discuss the broad topic of inflation, and then move on to some specific companies that are in the portfolio of Horizon’s Inflation Beneficiaries ETF ($INFL).
