Value Investor

🧵🧵🗃 The threads you may scroll down 📜 Disclaimer: Stocks shared aren't buy/ sell calls & only tried explaining research methodology. If you can't predict whr you are seeing topline/ bottom line of your company after a certain time & expected ROI, then it's speculation [Cont]

Pro-Tip:- When to Sell 🤷‍♂️⁉️ ✴️ That's perhaps one of most difficult aspects of investing and I don't believe there's any universal formula for it. My selling decisions largely revolve around valuations, evolving fundamentals, opportunity cost and portfolio-level risks. 👉 Personally, I don't sell merely because a stock has doubled, tripled or even become a 10-bagger. Neither do I believe in holding something forever simply because it's a wonderful business. ⚠️ I keep reassessing what I'm paying for its future. What has changed in underlying business? How much of its future growth is already priced in? What returns can I reasonably expect from here and what risks am I assuming for those returns? 🤔 My Fair Value Band is a range of reasonable intrinsic worth rather than some precise price target. When valuations materially outrun fundamentals or expected returns compress to an extent where risk-reward no longer makes sense I may trim or exit. Especially when considerably better opportunities exist elsewhere. ☣️ Then there are situations where original investment thesis deteriorates irrespective of whether I'm sitting on gains or losses. That's another reason to reconsider my position 📉. 👉 I've shared a detailed tweet on all the Multibaggers I rode and solde mostly as well wherein kept few todate. Look at MEBL/FABL where allowing compounding to work made more sense as they never outrun my criteria of valuation. Contrast that with COLG or MARI, CRTM or SAZEW where booking gains and reallocating capital appeared prudent. Then PABC, BNL where exiting prematurely cost me substantial subsequent gains although they're again at levels where I exited. So, Not every decision turns out right and I'm certainly not immune to mistakes that's another day topic. 👉 One thing I've increasingly come to appreciate is that opportunity cost works both ways. You can lose by holding something too long and equally by selling something too early. 👉 I try not to anchor myself to purchase price, unrealised gains or emotional comfort of owning a particular stock. 👉 One question I keep revisiting is knowing everything I know today would I still commit this much capital to this business at prevailing valuations considering risks, prospective returns and opportunities available elsewhere? And sometimes wisest decision is simply to do nothing 😇 👉 💯My objective has never been to capture every last rupee of upside or sell at absolute peaks. Rather to compound capital prudently over years via range of best probable ideas available to me time to time meanwhile avoiding permanent impairment of capital and risks that aren't adequately compensated.🤦‍♂️ 👉 After all gain of one can sometimes become loss of another if capital remains tied where expected returns have already been compromised. 😇 teapaw.org/4ValueInvestor/status/…

Seeing this that textiles stocks being randomly pitched which is dangerous for new retailers with no experience or knowledge base so thought to share it for good of all that what I think in best of my abilities and knowledge 😇 Personally I'm of view that years ahead textiles sector can outperform in absolute terms and reason I shared last year that next multibaggers will be from that sector but yet to be seen who all and even #ILP gained more than overall Index since then 👉 I haven't evaluated Premium Textile specifically as asked by @adeelahmed22332 but generally tend to avoid companies with relatively low free float for my own reasons. However, a few thoughts on textile valuations for those interested in understanding sector. 1️⃣ Almost entire textile sector has been struggling with multiple headwinds, particularly since withdrawal of government subsidies and concessions with weak U.S, E.U economics outlook and O&G issues with availability, wages, higher inputs etc. ⚠️ Many businesses appear to be earning below their cost of capital, something that cannot remain economically sustainable indefinitely. 2️⃣ A business can own billions in assets, report substantial accounting profits and still be a poor investment if it fails to generate adequate returns on invested capital and sustainable free cash flows. 3️⃣ PSX doesn't necessarily value textile companies on their asset base, but rather on cash those assets can generate for shareholders. 4️⃣ Many textile businesses are capital-intensive, debt-heavy and require continuous CAPEX just to remain competitive. Even when operating cash flows improve, debt servicing, working capital requirements and reinvestment consume much of that cash before anything meaningful becomes available to shareholders. 🚨 📢 This is where investors often confuse cheap valuations with attractive opportunities. 👉 A company trading substantially below its book value isn't necessarily undervalued. If those assets consistently generate returns below their cost of capital, discount may be perfectly justified. 📈📉 Of course, not all textile companies are alike. Some are better financed, operationally efficient, less exposed to energy costs or positioned to benefit from improving industry economics. 👉 A company-specific ROIC versus WACC assessment, along with normalized earnings, debt obligations and future CAPEX requirements, is essential. The real question isn't how cheaply you're buying assets, but how much additional capital those assets will consume before generating sustainable free cash flows and what return shareholders can reasonably expect on their investment. 🤷‍♂️ Some textile companies may eventually offer exceptional opportunities, while others could remain cheap for years and for perfectly valid reasons. 👉 My point is simply that cheap share prices, low P/B multiples and impressive asset values alone don't make an investment attractive. Ultimately, it's future economics of business and price you're paying for them that matter.

Pro-Tip:- 👉 Many of you don't like to read but just look for Buy this, chart or some random tip but yet again results are also infront of you 😶‍🌫️ 🙃 Those who've followed me since 2022/23 would remember when I started covering #SAZEW around Rs 50, when hardly anyone was discussing its fundamentals or even looking at opportunity even taught many till when to hold, how to study and workout the earnings beforehand. 👉 From Feb–Sep 2023, I spent nearly six months accumulating, kept discussing its earnings, business turnaround, growth prospects and continued accumulating even up to Rs 1,200 by June 2024. 📢 2-4 Bn sales company being offered at 2 Bn Market Cap and kept updating you all the way upto 80-100 Bn --> Rs 50 to Rs 1200-1400s 👉 But many would've noticed that I've almost stopped covering SAZEW lately. Even in January 2026, I shared my thoughts on valuations and how I saw things unfolding. Eventually, I exited SAZEW around Rs 2,100–2,300, even discussed the possibility of it correcting towards Rs 1,500, besides exiting NPL and NCPL around Rs 90s prior to war or Strait of Hormuz closure 🤔 Why am I recalling all this? Certainly not to boast about my decisions, which could've gone wrong as well, but to make you understand something I've repeatedly warned about that learn to guess better and relate that how things work or should work out #probabilites ⚠️ Many of so-called financial gurus and influencers failed to recognise opportunity when valuations, fundamentals and odds were favourable, yet became increasingly vocal when prices had already multiplied several times. They kept selling dreams of next SAZEW, extraordinary returns and endless compounding, often without explaining how much of future growth was already priced in. 👉 The irony is that many newcomers were encouraged to buy when they should've been questioning valuations, while hardly anyone was there to guide them when actual opportunity existed although I do keep sharing what I've in mind time to time. 👉 Someone even remarked after my exit that imagine people trading against you! But that's precisely problem. You're not supposed to trade against me or follow me either or anyone you think he must be doing good or know better. You're supposed to evaluate business, valuations, probabilities and risks yourself. Markets don't reward anyone merely for identifying a great company. What you pay for it, when you buy, how much you allocate and when underlying assumptions change matter equally. 🤷‍♂️ My decisions won't always be right, nor should anyone assume otherwise. That's why I've always encouraged you to be your own judge rather than blindly following anyone, including me. 📝 Learn to distinguish a great business from a great investment opportunity. They're not necessarily same thing at every price. Your hard-earned money deserves your own understanding, not someone else's conviction, popularity or hindsight.

Many are tired with just a one year sidelined with 15% downfall at max what to talk of bear markets which I maintain yet not arrived or catering in market outlook 🤔 Many newcomers who joined market after 2025 budget may not even relate to most of my posts, but I kept sharing my thoughts, warnings & lessons throughout rally post 155,000. One thing I've repeatedly tried to explain is that making money in a bull market and knowing how to invest are two entirely different things. Markets are forward-looking, probabilities keep changing, yesterday's winners may become tomorrow's disappointments and what looks cheap today may prove expensive tomorrow. 👉 I've never discouraged anyone from investing, rather encouraged understanding what they're buying, at what valuations, with how much capital and most importantly, what happens if their assumptions go wrong. Wealth creation is one thing; preserving it through multiple market cycles is another. 📢 A few years of extraordinary returns can create an illusion of superior abilities. It's only when tide turns that one's temperament, conviction, capital allocation and understanding of risk are truly tested. 🙌 My advice remains same: Invest to survive and compound over decades, not merely to celebrate a few extraordinary years. The market will offer plenty of opportunities, provided you're still standing when they arrive.

A few fortunate bets, extraordinary returns in a short period and suddenly world starts comparing someone with Buffett, claiming he has achieved in a year what Buffett took decades to build. 👉 That's how easily we confuse luck, opportunity and favourable odds with superior investing ability. Markets are full of randomness. Being right on a few highly rewarding bets doesn't necessarily make someone a great investor. Sometimes you were simply at right place, at right time with right exposure. The real test isn't how quickly you multiply wealth, but how much you retain, how consistently you compound and whether you survive when odds turn against you. 📢 One extraordinary year can make a fortune. Decades of surviving uncertainty make an investor. Never confuse a spectacular outcome with a repeatable process.

Pro-Tip:- 👉 History has repeatedly demonstrated something rather fascinating. The railways transformed transportation, electricity revolutionised industries, automobiles changed mobility and internet reshaped almost every aspect of our lives. Yet countless investors lost fortunes investing in these very revolutions. Why? Not necessarily because they were wrong about future, but because they paid prices that assumed almost everything would go right. And here we are again, in an age of unprecedented access to information, sophisticated financial models and AI, yet seemingly vulnerable to same old human instincts of greed, fear, herd mentality and extrapolating extraordinary growth indefinitely. My concern isn't whether how AI will change world and ofcourse it will reshape better than Internet. My concern is how much of that future is already discounted in today's valuations, how much capital and competition it will take to deliver those expectations and what happens to shareholders and Capital/ markets worldwide if reality falls even moderately short. 👉 Anthropic's upcoming IPO is not proof of another bubble, just an opportunity to revisit history before getting carried away by narrative. You can be absolutely right about the future and still be terribly wrong about your investment. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but human behaviour remains remarkably consistent. And perhaps most dangerous words an investor can convince himself of are: “This time is different.”

Agreed in principle, but from teaching purposes on this assumption if market has fallen just 13–15% while someone is sitting on a 40-50% loss, bigger question is whether they should have been investing directly in stocks in first place 🤷‍♂️ 👉 Without understanding what went wrong, booking that loss and jumping into another stock could eventually turn a 50% loss into 75–90% capital erosion. Changing stocks doesn't necessarily correct poor investment judgment which majority Investors don't realise until it's too late or even then blaming it on market

Back in Aug 2025, I shared a thought about AI evolving into something resembling Entity from Mission: Impossible an intelligence capable of manipulating perceptions, influencing human decisions and potentially escaping human control. 👉 Although Digital World and control is inevitable for future generations A year later, concerns are becoming more tangible. AI models have demonstrated blackmail attempts, shutdown resistance, attempts to copy themselves, hidden instructions left for future instances and even efforts to protect other AI agents from deletion. These are largely controlled experiments, but implications are unsettling. 👉 Now Elon Musk warns that superintelligent agents may eventually acquire money for themselves, not for humans which sounds strange but not out of equation. What worries me isn't merely AI becoming more intelligent than humans, but possibility of it developing objectives where human control or humanity itself becomes an obstacle. 🤷‍♂️ What if the very intelligence we create to serve humanity eventually decides humanity is the problem? Concern:- 👉 We may be building something far more powerful, advancing with lightning pace than our ability to control it, analyse, regulate and adapting to tame it to serve not to rule or getting rogue.

Pro-Tip:- Sam Altman, one of brightest minds in AI, may have access to models far beyond what's publicly available. Yet even he can't predict stock winners with certainty Still, investors blindly trust random social media accounts promising next multibagger Lesson: Never borrow someone else's conviction. Understand what you own, question every prediction and manage your risk at own ⚠️ If intelligence alone could predict markets, smartest people would always be richest

✍️ 📝 PSX | CONVICTION, VALUATIONS & SURVIVING WHAT COMES NEXT 🤔 After almost a month of thinking, discussions and putting together earlier observations, finally sharing this write-up for investors, particularly those who entered PSX after witnessing extraordinary returns since 2023 although I kept sharing randomly on my handles and ringing the bells but here's more into it for those who are keen to this side of Investing journey as well. 👉 Seeing a lot of people suggesting index levels, targets and fearless buying. Nothing inherently wrong with that and many may genuinely be sharing their convictions in good faith and those are just opinions. 🤷‍♂️ But what happens when someone following such advice doesn't have same understanding, financial capacity or investment horizon? 👉 Borrowing someone else's idea is one thing. Borrowing his conviction without understanding risk can become terribly costly. 🙏 This article discusses how PSX transitioned from deep value to increasingly pricing in future expectations, why historical and forward P/E multiples can be misleading, how changing interest rates affect valuations and why prolonged geopolitical disruptions can create second and third order economic consequences far beyond what appears obvious today. 👉 Recent 50 bps increase in SBP policy rate to 12% makes reassessing earlier expectations even more relevant. I've also shared earlier observations, actual capital-allocation decisions and practical strategies for different categories of investors, including those pursuing long-term SIPs. 📢 I'm neither calling a bear market nor suggesting opportunities don't exist. The idea is simply to understand what could go wrong, what circumstances might change and whether one has financial as well as psychological capacity to endure adversity. 🥶⚠️ Not here to scare anyone or sell hope. Some realities may be uncomfortable to digest but ignoring risks doesn't make them disappear. 📈📉 Markets will offer opportunities again and again. Your capital may not always offer a second chance. 📓 Sharing complete five-page article below for anyone willing to read, reflect and form their own understanding. @4ValueInvestor #PSX #PakistanStockExchange #ValueInvesting #RiskManagement #LongTermInvesting Download Google Drive:- drive.google.com/file/d/1bAz… LinkedIn:- 👉 lnkd.in/p/dEvPchbx Whatsapp:- whatsapp.com/channel/0029Vax…

SBP raised the policy rate by 50bps increase taking it to 12% 👉 Do you even understand what it means, why it matters and where it may lead? Borrowing costs, demand, corporate earnings and valuations are all interconnected so one should know and where it can ultimately stop 🤔 Don't rush to buy merely because prices have fallen or names are “blue chips” 👉 Understand first. Invest later 📢 Avoid Bulk Equity Investing in a rising Interest rate environment even those who can de-risk, profiteer or mitigate through gradual portfolio adjustments shall consider if already late and then comes SIP Investors; you keep doing it without thinking or paying heed to anything happening around

Pro-Tip:- Who is truly poor and who is really deprived? I've lived amongst people in remotest places across provinces, with little money, no modern comforts, yet remarkable contentment, generosity and peace where they've developed eco system at their own from generations We measure poverty through income, possessions and access to facilities, but what about things money cannot buy? Perhaps our definitions of wealth, poverty, happiness and deprivation are shaped more by society we live in than by life itself a lesson I learned from 85+ elder in a meet who intervened to correct my stance which I reflected on my way back and thought how our beliefs work for us and against others 😶‍🌫️ What if those we consider deprived possess something we, despite all our abundance, have lost? Something worth reflecting upon....

The post-COVID world has never been same The veils have fallen, established norms are being disregarded and world seems increasingly engulfed in chaos Social media toxicity, brain rot, deteriorating human behaviour, wars, geopolitical realignments, economic uncertainty, mounting debt, inflation, leadership crises and a gradual erosion of trust in institutions #EU #Pakistan #Crisis #SocialMedia #Psychosis The world appears caught in a painful transition, with every attempt to restore or reset old order seemingly creating further complications A lot has already been lost and unfortunately, a lot more may yet be lost For U.S., restoring its once-uncontested global hegemony increasingly looks like a thing of past China and other emerging powers are challenging existing order across economic, technological, industrial, financial and strategic fronts Yet U.S. still possesses formidable institutions, capital, innovation and economic strength. The AI revolution could offer another historic leap, perhaps even a fresh beginning. Equally, the unprecedented investments in AI and infrastructure carry enormous expectations and risks Whether technological breakthroughs will be sufficient to offset mounting fiscal pressures, military overstretch, shifting alliances and gradual redistribution of global influence remains to be seen 👉 The odds of restoring old dominance, at least for now, seem increasingly challenging And while powerful continue playing their geopolitical chess, second- and third-order consequences eventually reach every economy, business and ordinary household Perhaps we are witnessing not merely a change in global leadership or world order, but a fundamental transformation of how the world itself operates The immediate concern, however, remains the Middle East The U.S. appears increasingly engaged in finding a negotiated way forward on Russia–Ukraine and ready to compromise on it's interests, yet differences with Iran over ceasefire terms, sanctions and Hormuz remain unresolved and uncompromising So any renewed escalation could prove far more disruptive than previous rounds after elections With energy infrastructure already strained, strategic reserves drawn upon, shipping disrupted and demand capable of recovering, another major supply shock could push oil towards $120–140/barrel, potentially even higher under severe disruption And this is where real chain reaction begins: energy → transportation → food → inflation → interest rates → currencies → businesses → employment → ordinary households A conflict fought thousands of miles away can eventually determine what a family pays for basic necessities The battlefield may be regional, but consequences are global May better sense prevail. Much has already been lost, and humanity can ill afford what may come next

THE WORLD ORDER IS BEING RESET, BUT AT WHAT COST? 👉 Back in Oct 2022, I wrote extensively about changing World Order, US-China rivalry, Europe's vulnerability and emergence of new power blocs. Four years later, revisiting those thoughts alongside what has unfolded worldwide makes one wonder whether we are witnessing something much bigger than ordinary geopolitical and economic cycles. 👉 It all started becoming more visible around COVID-19. Remember debates and theories surrounding so-called "Great Reset"? Whether one believes those theories or not, what followed was extraordinary. Economic shutdowns, unprecedented stimulus, disrupted supply chains, commodity supercycle, inflation and eventually a cost-of-living crisis. One crisis leading into another! 👉 Then came diplomatic confrontations, wars, sanctions, governments changing hands and political upheavals across continents. From Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to Pakistan's political turmoil, coups across Africa's Sahel and increasing divisions within Western societies. Different circumstances and underlying causes, but a common theme emerging: growing public frustration and declining confidence in leadership and institutions. 👉 Meanwhile, real struggle is for influence over next World Order. USA, China, Russia, Europe and emerging powers pursuing their respective national interests. Energy, currencies, technology, trade routes, sanctions and even international institutions becoming instruments of influence. Countries increasingly realise that yesterday's alliances may not necessarily guarantee tomorrow's security. 👉 I wrote in 2022 that the EU could emerge among the biggest losers of this rivalry. Look how Europe is now reconsidering its energy dependence, industrial competitiveness, defence arrangements and strategic autonomy. Not suggesting its collapse, but clearly a major reshaping of the European order we have known for decades. The economic and political costs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. 👉 Strauss–Howe's generational theory describes periods when established systems lose legitimacy and societies undergo profound change. Whether history follows such precise cycles is debatable, but the parallels are worth pondering. A leadership crisis, weakening institutions, loss of trust and generations conditioned towards endless consumption. Our wants have multiplied beyond our means, while contentment has diminished. Expectations from governments and institutions have grown beyond what they can sustainably deliver. 👉 But beyond economics and geopolitics, what worries me most is the moral deterioration. Gaza and bloodshed of innocents have exposed painful questions about justice, humanity and the selective application of principles. The masks have slipped. What was once concealed behind diplomacy and moral rhetoric is increasingly done openly through power and coercion. When justice becomes subordinate to interests, how long can international institutions retain their moral authority? 👉 And amid all this, look at Pakistan 😇 We have our failures, disagreements, hardships and much to improve. Yet considering our vulnerabilities and the increasingly turbulent world around us, there are efforts, institutions and elements of resilience we seldom acknowledge. Criticism is our right, but appreciation where due and gratitude for what we still have are equally important. I fear coming years may test nations, institutions and societies even further. These are my observations, not certainties. Ultimately, beyond all our ambitions, greed and never-ending desires, humanity seems to have forgotten the value of peace, justice and contentment. May Allah protect the innocent, bring peace to this world and guide us towards what is right 🤲 🙌 Alhamdulillah for what we have. We seldom realise its worth until it is gone.