research head @blocmates // dare mighty things.
Joined November 2022
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We believe the bottom is in, selling pressure has diminished, the debasement case has strengthened, and the crowd has left
Tokens you should at least consider in the top 300:
$VVV - Focused mission, usage is very strong, looking to own their own hardware. Think the split-entity structure discussion has run its course.
$ZEC - Arguably the most reflexive asset of the year. Strong narratives surrounding SoV and privacy. Shielded pool usage is a strong feedback loop.
$ZRO - Still misunderstood as overpriced middleware, now transforming into full financial infrastructure via the Zero L1 and lzAtlas. Strong institutional traction and deflationary tokenomics (all while fundamentals-mogging the LINK Marines).
$SKY - Profitable, scaled, and yield-bearing stablecoin that is the closest thing to a “DeFi Federal Bank” we have. Tokenomics improving and barring Tether equity going live, it’s the cleanest expression of being long stables (no, I don't want to buy CRCL).
$LIT - Strong “HYPE-beta” while differentiating itself on the zero-fee/retail zone. Strong tokenomics, only issue is living in Hyperliquid’s shadow. Will likely have similar thoughts around $VAR though the RFQ angle opens up some fun ideas.
$GRASS - Getting real usage from their customers, but still want more transparency (onchain would be even better).
ethereum:0x7cf9a80db3b29ee8efe3710aadb7b95270572d47 - Shedding their baggage and focusing on a key privacy primitive in Covenants. Focused on real-world use cases both on- and off-chain.
$DRV - Team has been singularly-focused for years and finally getting the recognition they deserve. A bet that options can in fact survive and thrive onchain - some Hyperliquid risk.
$AERO - Strong metrics and sticky users. Downside is that it’s chain-dependent to a certain extent and ve(3,3) doesn’t have the best track record (AERO could be the exception).
solana:CARDSccUMFKoPRZxt5vt3ksUbxEFEcnZ3H2pd3dKxYjp - Undeniably strong business model and nice team/ops moat make this a tough king to topple in its vertical. Only open question is token alignment, but team has acknowledged/has made it a priority.
hyperliquid:native - Perpify the world. Don’t think I have to sell you on Hyperliquid.
solana:METAwkXcqyXKy1AtsSgJ8JiUHwGCafnZL38n3vYmeta - A bet on the fat longtail of medium-scale businesses as well as a memetic play against token-doomerism.
pearl-2:native - SoV coin that can grow alongside AI compute (and not compete against it). Bit hyped right now, Coinbase listing soon - which will be interesting to watch.
When people say there aren’t enough investible coins, just send them this. If all else fails, just buy $BTC.
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Counterintuitively crypto is good for this low liquidity environment because the space is so small in the grand scheme of things.
Despite money being tight at the moment, there exists an immense desire for retail traders to speculate, as we are in the later stages of a long cycle in risk appetite. Liquidity has a tendency to flow towards corners of the market where it can have an impact. There are fewer than 10 viable coins and it doesn't take much to move them.
In terms of the competing destinations for flows: gold has been challenged for a while now and AI is weighed down by concerns around financing availability and model-level pricing power.
It is hilarious and upside down that crypto would be the beneficiary of these conditions but it also makes sense in a strange way. At the end of the day, crypto is a tiny financial playground that is driven by the memetic consensus of a narrow group of people. In that sense it can transcend broader macro conditions.
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The Autobahn for Ethereum: Optimum Goes Live on Mainnet xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1dKrPrjDN…
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Assets added to the roadmap today: Axis Labs (AXIS), Pearl (PEARL), and Stable (STABLE)
coinbase.com/blog/increasing…
come stop by. we know you got nothing better going on for your Friday
Privacy Is Cool Again with @nillion xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1AKEmvrLQ…
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We're going live with @JohnAlanWoods tomorrow to chat about all things privacy, Encrypted Markets, and where things go from here.
3:30pm BST || 10:30am EDT
think way too many people are mid-curving @papertrade_xyz hard
> house take [revenue] has been extremely strong, even after day one (which I look at as a gamified ICO event, not organic usage)
> take rate is increasing, partly due to...
> accounts with "edge" are extracting less per day, either from protocol tweaks working or realizing their tail risks are not worth it
> and directional (not obviously farming) newcomers have been more and more active
congrats to @izebel_eth and @blurr on the successful roll-out so far
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Stage 2 has officially left the rocket factory for the last time. 😢🫡
Now in Moses Lake, WA, it will undergo cryo proof testing and then a hotfire campaign with its Andromeda engine before shipment to our launch site in Cape Canaveral, FL.
ALT Stage 2 at Kent, WA rocket factory
ALT Stage 2 shipping from Kent to Moses Lake test site
ALT Stage 2 delivered to Mose Lake test site
ALT Stage 2 mounted on test stand to being final testing
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takeaways from this past week in Singapore
- couldn’t be any more bullish on Hyperliquid if I tried
- hyperEVM and corewriter innovations popping up everywhere
- HIP-4 is going to explode
- a lot of folks excited by PRL (I don’t think it is as early as everyone is making out)
- a lot of complaining about nothing new or exciting being released
- tokenized assets: stocks, commodities, basically anything is the 50,000x opportunity
- options are becoming more and more popular/understood
- Singapore is actually great and anyone saying otherwise is not going to the right spots
- now back to the bunker to continue building. stay tuned.
you aren't bullish enough on Covenants. new privacy primitive + AI tooling means we're gonna see some nutty net-new applications in the coming months
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🚨BREAKING: Nous Research has raised $90 million at a $1.5 billion valuation after its open-source Hermes agent exploded in usage.
Hermes has been downloaded 22.7 million times since February.
Nous was at roughly $36 million in annualized revenue by mid-September. It expects to pass $100 million later this year.
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I think it’s a misinterpretation of the market to believe we’re in a privacy meta that is pushing Zcash forward
I believe we’re in an SoV meta so strong (created by Bitcoin’s relative weakness) that has repriced Zcash so aggressively, there’s a mini privacy meta tailing as a bi-product
This is important if you want to allocate to any secondary plays because other than zec: you actually would buy different tokens to play either meta
That all true unless you invert the interpretation. What if Zcash is a good SoV & it’s “wedge” against Bitcoin is privacy, quantum resistance, formal verification, some tachyon scaling, & general lack of ossification. Zcash given the decade of humiliation running its own PoW chain also has the closest origin story to Bitcoin’s immaculate conception as you could get. In this environment as quantum gets closer and closer & government overreach only extends - Zcash can finally get monetary lindy.
^^ in this framework, privacy is important to why Zcash rallied but it’s not the entire reason. For a handful of other equally relevant reasons, Zcash is ascendant
With this perspective you can rewrite your original claim from “Zcash is riding a privacy meta” to “Zcash is so ascendant, a privacy meta is tailing it”
^^ I find this framing useful because it actually explains a lot. Railgun, Tornado cash, and other mixing/programmable privacy pools are doing well - but it’s not like their price action is market leading. Other private networks like Zama and Nillion are getting a bid, but again it’s not mind blowing. Finally the closest comp to Zcash, Monero, is doing really well - but it’s being notably out traded by Zcash
So if you believe we’re in a SoV meta (like I do) then you buy Zcash and maybe some Pearl, then you mostly ignore all the privacy projects because they don’t have attractive money like properties. **Take note that so far this has been the winning strategy, I believe the market is confirming my perspective
If you believe we’re in a privacy meta (which you could say, but it’s really secondary imo) then you’d buy Zcash, some Railgun, and some other privacy tech assets. **but please take note that this has been underperforming (unless you cherry pick sub 200mil small caps that can reprice aggressively with little real flows)
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Welcome to the pod, @563defi
No live stream this week due to Asia circuit circumstances, but we did record yesterday and mr head of research stepped in for @Grantblocmates.
How to position for the rest of this cycle, Nock v Pearl, papertrade, ZEC's buying opportunity, HYPE strength, and more.
Links below.
