Pleased to share the 1st in our series of long reads #Libya’s political culture wars Full PDF below: sadeqinstitute.org/s/Libyas-…

Thanks Massad 🙏🏻

I'm not losing sleep over the opinion of a man who's been followed by a piss tape from Russia for ten years. 🥱

If you understandably weren't watching Libya over the last 3 years, here's what happened and why this matters. Libya's House of Representatives has just ratified Turkey's 2019 maritime deal. It voted unanimously, and scrapped its own earlier 2020 resolutions rejecting the deal and cutting ties with Ankara when they were at war. For years the east blocked it. Today it adopted it. The deal draws a sea border between Turkey and Libya through waters south of Crete that Greece and Cyprus claim. Turkey argues islands shouldn't get a full sea zone. Greece says international law gives them one. In plain terms, the fight is over whether a Greek island gets a sea around it. Until now, Greece and Egypt could say the deal lacked legitimacy because Libya's elected parliament never approved it. That argument has now gone. Turkey can now say Libya's institutions stand behind it, not just the UN backed government in Tripoli. Legally the deal is weak. Turkey hasn't signed the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the EU rejects the deal, and no court can hear the dispute unless both sides agree to it. But the cables and pipelines linking Cyprus and Greece to Europe have to cross that line, and Ankara can assert its claim while EU officials and lawyers argue. Investors and insurers will have to price that risk in for vessels or projects before a judge rules. There are no blockades or missiles here like in Hormuz. It is a legal chokepoint, not a physical one. The Libyan story sits underneath. Aguila Saleh, the parliament's speaker for a decade, was Egypt's lever for keeping this file frozen. He has been replaced by Salheen Abdel Nabi, who is backed by Saddam Haftar. Saddam needs Turkish political and military support to become president under the plan the US is mediating and just gave Ankara a compelling reason to stick with him. Cairo has a long relationship with Saddam’s father. It doesn't have the same one with him; and potentially Libya’s next president. Watch Cairo, Tel Aviv and Athens’ response next.

This is major. Libya's eastern parliament, now led by a Saddam Haftar ally, has adopted the 2019 Turkey maritime MoU & reversed its 2020 rejection. It strengthens Ankara's hand against Greece, Cyprus, Egypt & Israel in the East Med. Cairo, Tel Aviv & Abu Dhabi’s reactions will 👀

Barry was more coherent