Used to Poker. Now invest/program. 2023: +33% 2024: +70.2% 2025: 36.2%, 2026: 66.76%, I am not financial adviser. https://teapaw.org/t.co/K5d1HRrxpS
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If $SKHY could cancel all incremental capex and buy back half the company, i would appreciate it.
Just finished with the $BDSX call, not a great result. Did 24% volume growth which is good, but test mix between Nodify XL2 and Nodify CDT lead to lower overall ASPs and that sounds like the new normal.
Combined with no service revenue for the quarter (basically consulting) you end up a couple million in rev short of consensus (around 10%). You def don't want to miss in this tape, and it pushes out the story a lot.
The acquisition thesis is still live and well in my mind (maybe moreso with a distressed company) as the product is just as important as it was yesterday, but who knows how management feels about that at lower prices. It makes negotiating trickier.
Maybe shouldn't have been quite as risk on in this environment. We shall see.
Nothing in the post above is financial advice, just my views on the BDSX earnings provided for information and entertainment. You will have to make up your own mind with this one if you also own the stock.
Was pretty consistent selling in $BDSX Friday, i increased to 12.2% which is about as high as i can make a position (actually this is irresponsibly long, lets be honest, though I am also mentally prepared for a 0 on the entire position, so maybe not).
I guess we are just going to see who is right and who is not right on this one but momentum clearly in control atm. That said, given the distribution of outcomes here and my thesis, i find it hard not to believe Kelly Criterion > Sharpe.
-We are talking 2.63x gross profit
-i think we see 23-24% growth when they report November 5th.
-There is a very credible acquisition thesis (strategically important to multiple buyers as BDSX's tech is increasingly important as multicancer screening increases (more multicancer screening = more lung nodules detected = more stratifying the risk of those nodules).
-We're also well below where Schuler (huge insider) was buying in August now ($24.50).
The next interesting information to come up will be in November when Gary Pestano, Chief Scientific Officer, speaks about MRD November 11 “Listening for the Whisper - Monitoring Residual Disease and Emerging Resistance in the Blood”. Pestano worked at Ventana which was another huge Schuler investment (flipped to Roche Diagnostics for 3b, Schuler made 300m). Now he’s Chief Science Officer at BDSX? I dunno, seems like the team is working to get the best possible result here, and over a very very long period of time.
The price action says something is up - but we're not talking about a big company here (223m market cap with half the float owned by insiders) so the PA is less trustworthy (there’s no fund with 50m of this and a full time analyst sweating it non stop).
This ticks all my boxes for an investment, so 🤷♂️... my fate awaits.
It's really tempting for me to be defensive since my year has still been very good, even after Thursday (i entered with 20% of my portfolio as compute which pretty aggressively nuked though Friday bounced at least a little), but i guess i just have to continuously tell myself to make decisions that lead to maximizing the amount of EV / money i make. There are a lot of incentives to not do that, but ultimately it is the only thing that matters for me personally.
Nothing in this post is financial advice or a suggestion to buy $BDSX, i am just clarifying my own thought process around a large holding of mine and thought others might find this entertaining - as i mentioned, i'm also extremely aware that this company could cause permanent capital loss.
$GRAB helping a lot here.
