Kazakh-Russian-Ukrainian Political Analyst. Diplomacy, Geopolitics I BRICS, Eurasia, Latin America I Russia-Global South I Dr.Phil from @Unileipzig
Berlin, Deutschland
Joined August 2013
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As #BRICS leaders meet in New Delhi this weekend, the grouping faces a familiar question: Is it becoming a meaningful geopolitical actor or is it little more than a diplomatic talking shop? In my new analysis I challenge the premise behind this debate.
collections.fes.de/publikati…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
BREAKING: Presidents Trump, Xi and Putin to hold unprecedented talks in China next week that could cover nuclear stockpiles, White House says. apnews.com/article/trump-xi-…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Russian officials circulated a position paper ahead of the Abu Dhabi talks this week. It repeats many of Putin's December 2021 demands, in some cases word for word, and adds new ones. Our story: nytimes.com/2026/11/13/us/po…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Russia has been brought to the table by request, not by pressure. It is therefore unsurprising that they come with a victorious mindset to use to get as much as possible if it is on offer. They have received no signal that they need to concede anything, so they don’t.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Inkompatible Positionen erklären oft ergebnislose Gespräche, ja. Die europäischen Telefonate 2022 blieben bei Appellen an Waffenruhe und Minsk-Umsetzung, ohne die russischen Sicherheitsforderungen von 2021 (NATO-Ostbegrenzung etc.) substanziell aufzugreifen. Die US-Seite diskutiert jetzt genau diese Architektur. Unterschied liegt im Angebot, nicht nur im Format.
„The Finnish-Norwegian initiative shows that European independence from Trump does not necessarily mean adopting a more confrontational posture toward Moscow. In that context, the Nordic track looks like a credible opening for ultimately bringing Europe into the U.S.–Russia–Ukraine negotiations.“ by @EldarMamedov4 theamericanconservative.com/…
I recently lamented the prevalence of binary thinking and reflexive reactions on this platform. And here’s another illustration: people responding not to what a post actually says, but to what they assume it means, filtered through their own biases and preconceptions.
I remember like two or three years ago, on @dw_espanol talk shows, I repeatedly argued that Russia’s central strategic objective was to negotiate a new European security architecture. Often, I was met with disbelief.
This was not simply intuition (though intuition matters, too). Years of research on Russian foreign policy, particularly towards Latin America, have involved extensive analysis of official foreign policy documents, media and some diplomatic telegrams dating back to the 1990s, as well as interviews with diplomats.
Researching Russia’s foreign policy across regions offers a broader perspective on its strategic thinking, interests and priorities.
After a decade of gaslighting that NATO had nothing to do with the causes of the war, after five years of (often hysterical) demands to read the whole of East European (and not only) history through ethnonationalist lenses, and after ridiculing the slightest hint that the Russian ultimatum on the eve of the invasion was real and should have been taken much more seriously, there is now a deafening silence about why the European security architecture is on the agenda of the most serious negotiations so far, and why the Russian side identifies it as the root cause of the war.
Also, the fact that it is European security that is on the negotiating table, and not, let's say, the “decolonization” of Russia, says something significant about whether the war grew out of an “irrational” obsession or was part of the material forces driving global change, aligned with rational interests.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
After a decade of gaslighting that NATO had nothing to do with the causes of the war, after five years of (often hysterical) demands to read the whole of East European (and not only) history through ethnonationalist lenses, and after ridiculing the slightest hint that the Russian ultimatum on the eve of the invasion was real and should have been taken much more seriously, there is now a deafening silence about why the European security architecture is on the agenda of the most serious negotiations so far, and why the Russian side identifies it as the root cause of the war.
Also, the fact that it is European security that is on the negotiating table, and not, let's say, the “decolonization” of Russia, says something significant about whether the war grew out of an “irrational” obsession or was part of the material forces driving global change, aligned with rational interests.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
🚨Scoop: The U.S. has asked Russia to submit a new proposal for a future security agreement with Europe that includes Russian steps to ease tension with the continent, two sources with knowledge of the matter said. My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/11/11/russia-…
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
🧵 A few thoughts on the talks in Abu Dhabi from someone who's been on this beat for almost five years.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
I was pleased to meet with the President of the Republic of Finland, @alexstubb. We mainly discussed his recent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. I have also repeatedly expressed my conviction that we must engage in dialogue with all parties involved in the war if we are to achieve peace.
I also briefed President Stubb on the discussions held at the recent meeting of the #Arraiolos Group of Presidents in Slovenia.
#COP31
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Hören Sie, das Reden passiert doch bereits. Noch im trilateralen Format, aber Europa wird sicher bald dazukommen. Nur muss man sich auf solche Gespräche eben gut vorbereiten: wissen, was man will, was die Gegenseite will, wo die jeweiligen Interessen liegen, welche Kompromisse möglich sind und wo die eigenen roten Linien verlaufen.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
Das ist das Paradox. Und die Herausforderung geht über die Frage eines Verhandlers hinaus: Europa braucht eine kohärente Strategie und realistische Ziele. Andernfalls droht es, Zuschauer bei Entscheidungen zu bleiben, die seine eigene Sicherheit fundamental prägen werden.
Immer wieder erschreckend, wie primitiv die Reaktionen auf dieser Plattform ausfallen. Binäres Denken scheint jede differenzierte Auseinandersetzung zu verdrängen. Dabei sind auch solche russischen Statements alles andere als unproblematisch. Genau deshalb mein Aufruf: miteinander reden statt übereinander, einander zuhören statt reflexhaft verurteilen. Das sollte angesichts des Ernstes der Lage eigentlich selbstverständlich sein.
Das ist das Paradox. Und die Herausforderung geht über die Frage eines Verhandlers hinaus: Europa braucht eine kohärente Strategie und realistische Ziele. Andernfalls droht es, Zuschauer bei Entscheidungen zu bleiben, die seine eigene Sicherheit fundamental prägen werden.
Alexandra Sitenko retweeted
They already have a voice. It’s called war.
They’ve made clear that if they can’t exercise that voice at the negotiating table, they’ll do it on the battlefield.
We may not like it, but 500,000 dead Russians are proof that they mean business.
Good. This is how you start talking.
EXCL: Britain and Russia should seek fresh lines of communication to avert the “risk of miscalculation” arising from Moscow’s “state-sponsored terrorism”, UK defence secretary has urged.
Wes Streeting said in an interview with the @FT: “We have our embassy in Moscow. That is an important channel . . . I would much prefer there to be additional channels too, particularly military-to-military level.”
Speaking out as the UK has fallen behind allies such as France and Germany in its political and diplomatic lines of contact with Vladimir Putin’s regime, he added: “There is always a risk of miscalculation and that’s why having that direct communication is important.”
ft.com/content/4b3272a6-5d87…
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Exactly. That is the tragedy of this war: the fundamental strategic issues underlying it were not inherently beyond diplomatic resolution. Yet political arrogance, entrenched positions, and lack of strategic foresight made diplomacy impossible. The result is a devastating war whose human cost could have been avoided.
The brother of Zelenskyy's adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, was killed in the Zaporizhzhia region while fighting FOR Russia. You can't even imagine how many more family stories like this will be coming to light.
Брат советника Зеленского Михаила Подоляка погиб в Запорожской области, воюя за Россию — KIU
tvrain.tv/news/brat-sovetnik…
