Proud American.Covers demographic trends,geopolitical topics & future projections+great power dynamics. Supporter of family,faith & future for our civilization.
Joined August 2020
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Culture is the most substantive battlefield for any nation. The cultural battlefield is the one on which identity is maintained or lost.
Along with fertility falling faster than other parts of Iraq the Kurdish Region sees the highest volume of migrants attempting irregular crossings into Western Europe of any area of the country. At the same time Kurdistan hosts over 800K refugees (including 256K Syrian Kurds).
Xer/Boomer/Silent coalition that leans heavily conservative just got buried. They showed up but clearly did not have decisive numbers for their slate. By 2028 another 5M+ of them will be gone,replaced by smallest modern generation(50s Xers). Without under-40s, this math is dead.
South Korean births up only ~1.5% in October. The rebound seems to have had the wind largely knocked out of it of late. TFR could end up below 0.90 for 2026 against early hopes of close to 1.0. If the RoK cannot notch a few years above 1.0 now with comeback cohort it’s cooked.
The three Chinese Northeastern Rust Belt provinces of Liaoning, Jilin, & Heilongjiang (which have a far higher population than the two Koreas combined) witness some of the most extreme aging on earth. Liaoning is 32.6% aged 60 & older, Jilin 29.7%, & Heilongjiang ~28%.
Lots of talk on aging China in the media constantly. Well many of its largest cities are already aged. As you can see in the graphic below gigantic Chongqing is already⬆️25% age 60+(8M+ elderly!), Shanghai’s registered residents are 37.6% 60⬆️, & Beijing’s rate is almost 1/3rd!
As the die is largely demographically cast in most large European countries like Italy,Germany,& Spain fertility rate wise(all 3 being far below replacement since early 1980s) Poland is one medium to large European country which still has a(vanishingly tiny)window to turn around.
Demographics Now & Then retweeted
Yep every divorce horror story shared amongst a friend group hurts the institution of marriage far more than a good marriage bolsters its image. But if you’re surrounded by family and friends who have healthy marriages it obviously has the strongest bolstering effect.
Unfortunately the South Korean birth rebound is may be losing steam. Now births up 13% in August preliminary figures compared to births the year to July being up 14.7%. The trend for TFR year to July was 0.92 & in August 0.87. Maybe just a bad blip but worth keeping an eye on.
The number of people who have left Ukraine & numbers still leaving are unsustainable & will lead to near certain demographic ruin if not reversed. Remember 3.5M+ who left in 2022 & never returned are statistically very unlikely to (& make up a large part of UA comeback cohort).
Worth keeping South Korean fertility rebound in context. If trajectory maintains & births increase~15% year on year births will be~293,000. As you can see, comeback cohort of 1991-1995 are all now in their early 30s. Once most have had ~1 kid birth numbers are likely to plunge.
Russia's post war fertility rate only got to 3.0+ one year (1949) & plummeted thereafter until going below replacement and stabilizing in 1967. To put this into perspective the Russian fertility rate averaged 4.5+ in the 1930s but just 2.75 in the 1950s & ~2.2 in the 1960s.
France, UK, & USA saw the opposite, with massive postwar cohorts compared to sub or near replacement TFRs prewar.
Demographics Now & Then retweeted
Extremely rapid demographic change in Latam means older voters & their interests will be much more dominant in elections to come (as they have been in Europe & North America for decades). Their issues will likely be maintaining/solidifying pensions & benefits. & they turn out.
There are many good people on this platform but the platform itself is the opposite of good. It’s not a global town square,it is controlled speech. Those who go with the model/narrative get boosted & those who don’t have reach destroyed,graphs/charts/maps censored,or get booted.
It had been suggested to me multiple times to just buy the blue check to avoid the shadow ban/chart censoring. I just cannot do that. With such a yawning ratio of AI Slop/Engagement Bait to good content I don’t want to feed the X beast even with an insignificant monthly sum.