Eschews obfuscation. Espouses elucidation. Writes about football. Kisses and tells.

Chicago
Joined August 2010
Blind certainty is close-mindedness that amounts to imprisonment so total, prisoner doesn’t even know he’s locked up. -David Foster Wallace
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Embarrassingly, with that late cover from Washington, my model (which I keep assuring readers is as square as they come) is now up to 13-4-1 on the season. footballguys.com/article/202…
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"I think analytics is a good way to lose your job as a head coach." That's what Aikman just said.
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Doesn’t help that he played in the dead ball era for kickoff returns. (Same problem for Mel Gray.)
One of maybe two of the most underrated special teams players ever. Michael Bates. A excellent KR, but made tackles, blocked kicks, forced fumbles ... Few even know his name
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Adam Harstad retweeted
Circus Performers, by Walt Kuhn, 1978, 📸 via @marisakabas2
A phenomenal moment in the Senate. Eric Schmitt, R-Mo., claims he has evidence Jack Smith went to a HAWKS game in Atlanta. Smith denies it. Schmitt declares he has busted Jack Smith for perjury. Smith, vexed, says he went to HAWKEYES game in Maryland. Watch the whole thing:
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Adam Harstad retweeted
The Top 10: Week 4 The Top 10 features @MattWaldman's film-driven analysis to help GMs manage their fantasy squads. footballguys.com/article/202…
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I disagree with @kbohls on this topic, but it is not a debate, because you can’t debate feelings. I get his point of view. That said, the locker room is the place where private convos stay private. Having private spaces to work out things like discipline is a good football, life thing, particularly now in the social media everyone has strong, often cruel, profane opinions era. There is no punishment that everyone agrees on. Usually ends up being a tribal discussion that depends on if you like someone as a person. And in our b0t world, punishment topics from sports to criminal justice is just fodder for Kontent Kreation, beyond a thoughtful point of view shared in the newspaper. Sarkisian handled it, told the public that he did. Knowing the exact punishment helps no one. It’s super weird being a young (or older) person on a big stage, hard to navigate sometimes. Seen it up close. Football is hard enough, I am good accepting apologies, giving grace for mistakes, not judging too hard.
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Adam Harstad retweeted
Rest-of-season rankings as we head into Week 4 are live! This week has, by far, the biggest movers so far this season. I re-rank every fantasy-relevant player every week and provide insight to the week’s biggest movers. ✍️ @Footballguys footballguys.com/article/202…
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when you have an awesome retort loaded and ready to go but posting it would violate the prime directive
Saw someone spouting confident nonsense on here and very nearly violated the prime directive before remembering that I genuinely don’t care if they’re wrong or not. If you’ve never tried just letting strangers think they’re right, I highly recommend it.
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Teams that rush for 235+ yards and average 9.8+ net YPA, however… are 76-0.
Teams that rush for 240+ yards and average 10 net yards per pass, like the Falcons last night, are now 59-0.
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Is that the best possible? Dunno, it’s just one boundary point. For instance teams with 6.8+ NY/A and 273+ rushing yards are 102-0. Possibly there’s another combination out there with more than 128 wins without a loss.
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(This thread brought to you by “I have work I’m supposed to be doing but I’m too ADHD so I decided to play around on @Stathead instead”.)
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As always, players should get statistical credit for spot fouls. Receivers should get the yardage from DPI, pass rushers should get the sack for intentional grounding. Exactly how the NBA handles goaltending.
Matthew Golden now has an NFL-high 95 yards from defensive pass interference penalties. Second place has 54 (Tre Harris). Only five guys (underrated) had more all of last season.
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Reminded tonight of when the dynasty community was frantically selling Drake London after an awesome rookie season because he… had 0 catches in the first game of his sophomore year.
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London and Watson both balling out tonight, the post-rookie model stays winning.
Two weeks later, scores are now officially official. Check the below thread for model details and how these scores compare historically. 121.9 - Olave (6th of 173) 116.8 - London (12th) 113.7 - Watson (19th) 109.8 - Wilson (31st) 105.9 - Dotson (53rd) 104.0 - Burks (65th) ...
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Kenneth Walker is currently on pace for 3136.5 yards. After much consideration, I think I’m leaning toward taking the under.
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It’s not widely known, but players are 57% more likely to regress immediately after some Twitter analyst posts their “on pace” stats. (This is, of course, also Harstad’s razor. Fun example of reversing the causal arrow, too.)
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It’s not applicable in literally every situation, it just seems that way because of selection biaOH SHIT!
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Replying to @ScottBarrettDFB
FYI Harstad’s Razor: everything interesting is probably selection bias. We’re trying to make this a “thing” now because I’ve always wanted my own razor.
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