@AdamKoos
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Financial & Business Advisor, Helping Biz-Owners & Exec’s Make Work "Optional." Cleveland Bred, Buckeye Alum, Car Freak, husband, & father of 2 cool little men.
Columbus, OH
Joined May 2012
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Thanks for the continued support, @djwizmo and @ProAdvisorMag. As I reflect back on the very first article, I remain humbled by your continued desire to work together on educating both investors and professionals on proactive investment management. proactiveadvisormagazine.com…
Had the pleasure of Mathew visiting me for a couple of days… and while we spent plenty of time nerding out over stock charts, the new @Optuma web release, some drinks at a speakeasy after some (requested) Mexican food, and a visit to a Columbus Cars & Coffee meet… the weekend wouldn’t have been complete without a trip to The ‘Shoe. 😏
@mathewverdouw @CMTAssociation
Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA retweeted
High yield spreads usually give a clue the monster under the bed is real. We saw spreads widen in early '25 and '26, well before the market cracked.
Right now? Sleep with the lights on if you want, but there is no monster.
With 7 weeks left 'til the midterm elections and the conflicts in the middle-east, I'd be surprised if the $SPX holds here...
If it does, that's pretty damn bullish, but if it doesn't? The next line-in-the-sand would be the June lows, which will likely coincide with its 200MA.
There's that triangle breakout...
From here, the market can ride that upper trendline down, as long as it holds the apex = bullish.
$SPX
HEADS UP: I’ll be live on The Morning Show on @stockmkttv with @JC_ParetsX and @sstrazza TOMORROW at 9:00 am ET.
Check it out here:
youtube.com/watch?v=vJKsf2pC…
My "Pre-flight Checklist" (which was developed years ago w/ the help of my good friends and fellow CMTs @DKellerCMT & @DavidCoxRJ) helps me get a quick, but comprehensive look at the markets each day...
...and it's looking pretty ugly right now for new entries.
$PLTR is back “under water,” trading below falling 50- & 200-day MAs, with another bearish momentum divergence, similar to late-2021.
Does that mean it tanks? Who knows...
We can’t predict tops or bottoms, but we CAN manage risk objectively.
If cap gains are ~23% and the stock falls 23%, you’ll wish you’d paid the tax.
...but could it reverse and rip? Absolutely... that’s the trade-off.
I don't normally like plotting diagonal trend lines unless I'm pointing out divergences, but...
...this next few weeks is going to hold above the November highs and break out of this pattern, or it's going to break down - and at least for now, momentum is hinting at the latter. $SPX
Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA retweeted
Going back 40 years, stocks have been lower in December during the first year of the Presidential cycle only once.
Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA retweeted
Yes, yesterday's reversal was ugly, no way around it.
Then again, Thursday is gonna Thursday apparently.
Every investor who struggles with their retirement savings, politics, and news-related market volatility should frame this and put it on their night stand.
#Perspective
Touché
For all the talk about a Hindenburg Omen, keep in mind that 61 of the 97 people on-board the Hindenburg survived. Tragic as it was, the outcome was better than most people believe. #StockMarket $SPX #hindenburg
Going back 40 years, only 2018 saw a negative return 1 year later...
...the rest? Not so bad.
Will the Government Shutdown end soon?
Here's what the S&P 500 did next, after historical Shutdowns ended:
$SPX
Adam D. Koós, CFP®, CMT, CEPA retweeted
A reminder that the average year sees a 14% peak-to-trough correction, yet still gains more than double digits on average.
Another wonderful, unbiased, educational post about the Hindenburg Omen.
Tom McClellan recently reminded FinTwit that clusters are what truly matter, and Barnhart (below) proves this point with individual datapoints of $SPX performance 1-year later.
@McClellanOsc
This quoted post is unavailable.
For those investors who are allowing Hindenburg Omens to rattle your emotions, let alone make knee-jerk trading decisions, please note (and commit to memory) McClellan's final sentence in the post below:
