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🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨 On Point Polling / On Point Politics is the #1 Pollster AND Major Forecaster in the 2026 Midterm Elections! Our final national poll: D+13.1 Projected final result: D+13.0 Polling averages: D+8.5 The averages missed the national vote by 4.5 points. We missed by 0.1. THE POLL We compared all 42 final national generic ballot polls. Getting the margin right is only half the job, so we also scored every pollster on each party's vote share. Our final: 55.0 D, 41.9 R Votes counted so far: 55.6 D, 43.0 R Averaging the margin miss and the vote share miss: 1. On Point Polling: 0.48 2. The Honest Poll: 0.90 3. AtlasIntel: 0.98 4. Big Data Poll: 1.93 5. Tufts / YouGov: 2.15 #1 of 42. WHY WE GOT IT RIGHT Our sample matched the real electorate. With independents leaned, our likely voters came out D+11.0 on party ID. Gallup's party ID with leaners: D+11.0. We did not weight to that. We landed on it. THE FORECAST 446 of 465 called races went to our favorite. That's 95.9%. Senate: 32 of 34 Governor: 33 of 34 House: 381 of 397 called seats Safe calls: 315 for 315 We tracked 18 forecasts on the 10 Senate races that decided the majority, counting a toss-up as a miss because no prediction was made. On Point: 8 of 10 DDHQ, VoteHub, Sabato, Silver Bulletin, FiftyPlusOne, Split Ticket: 7 Cook: 2 RealClearPolitics: 1 We said seven Republican Senate seats would flip: Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Maine, Iowa and South Carolina. All seven flipped. South Carolina: we were the ONLY major forecast to call it for Annie Andrews. She won by 4.5. Our poll also had her winning by 3.5. Iowa: only 3 of 18 forecasts called it for Josh Turek. We had him +3.7. He won by 4.2. Mississippi: every other major forecast had Cindy Hyde-Smith Likely or Safe R, and DDHQ had her winning by 14. We were the ONLY major forecast to rate it a toss-up. Colom now leads by 1,795 votes. SEAT COUNTS House, how far off each forecast was: On Point: 14 DDHQ: 20 Sabato and FiftyPlusOne: 22 Economist: 26 VoteHub: 27 Senate: we said 56. If Peltola holds Alaska, it lands on exactly 56. Governors: we missed only Texas. Every other major governor forecast missed Texas too, and every one of them had Kansas going Republican. Holscher leads. DOWNBALLOT 111 of 122 statewide downballot races went to our favorite. Outside Texas, where every statewide Democrat won, 111 of 116. That's 95.7%. We own our misses: Nebraska Senate, Texas governor and Mississippi Senate. But on the poll and the forecast together, nobody in the country was closer. Thank you for trusting us all year. Full breakdown at onpointpolitics.us YOUTUBE BREAKDOWN: youtube.com/watch?v=wKAoKyTP…