Global macro and cross-asset thematics. Rates, currencies, equities, and other sources of unnecessary stress.
London, UK
Joined August 2021
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Meta seeking to raise up to $95b through common and preferred equity.
Another piece of the equity supply puzzle building in the background. More and more equity financing to come. Debt issuance was just the start.
If history is any precedent, every first-round presidential leader since Brazil returned to direct presidential elections has gone on to win the run-off.
AP Research retweeted
Not an easy day in the markets!
But always have time for candid chat w/ good minds and hearts! 💪🧿🌍
Central banks are about to take centre stage, but the forces driving the dollar, euro, and pound extend well beyond interest rates.
alphapicks.co.uk/p/the-price…
From French sovereign debt to US tech, CDS is finding its way into plenty of market conversations right now.
A good time to understand how the market for credit risk actually works. Our evergreen primer is below.
New primer: Credit Default Swaps
Understanding CDS, the derivative at the heart of modern credit risk transfer.
alphapicks.co.uk/p/global-pr…
AP Research retweeted
France worries are all perfectly rational & valid yet the mkt is trading as if the ECB will never provide a backstop…they will, they’ll have to…just as soon as they’ve thought up a new acronym and a way of making it look like they’re not simply bailing out a profligate state…
*FRANCE’S 10-YEAR BOND RISK PREMIUM RISES TO 175 BASIS POINTS
Have to admit, I didn’t see OAT-Bund widening quite this far.
France looked to be in a difficult spot when we put the trade on at 87bps, but the deterioration has been considerably worse than we anticipated.
One of the cleaner macro expressions we’ve had this month (of which there have been many). OAT-Bund was 87bps when we put it on. It’s now 118bps, through 100bps for the first time since 2012.
France had enough idiosyncratic risk to underperform even through a global bond selloff. The fiscal picture hasn’t improved, while the energy move continues to hurt those most exposed in Europe.
The trade is getting crowded and we’re close enough to our 120bp target. Taking it off the book here, which historically is a fairly reliable catalyst for another leg higher. OAT-Bund bulls can thank us later.
Hedge funds have been selling global equities this month, with short leverage now in the 99th percentile over five years, per Goldman.
Plenty of fuel for a squeeze if equities find a reason to rally.
Call premium is emerging in January Brent options. Markets turning their attention to post-midterm escalation risks in the Middle East.
AP Research retweeted
What is AI really capable of in bio?
To separate hype from reality, we spent 3 months working firsthand with @AnthropicAI's internal research model to see if it could create an experimental scorpion antivenom.
Introducing Citrini Therapeutics.
citriniresearch.com/p/citrin…
