Stocks, options & crypto setups with entries, targets and stops posted before the move. Every call tracked publicly. Free alpha, with receipts
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Joined November 2023
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Wednesday brings two major volatility events: the Fed decision at 2 PM ET, then $MSFT earnings after the close. Rates can reset the market’s valuation multiple; Avoid treating the first reaction as truth—watch yields and price confirmation
$BTC 1H RECOVERY SETUP: Long only after a completed 1H close above $64,085 and a successful retest of $63,950. Stop $63,640. Targets $64,750/$65,070. No close + hold, no trade. The latest candle is incomplete—do not confuse an intrabar wick with confirmation. Model only.
$BTC UPDATE: Price rebounded from $62,660 to roughly $63,781, but the model long still requires a 1H close above $63,950 plus a successful retest. That has not been verified, so there is no entry. Below $62,660 first cancels it. Discipline beats anticipating the candle.
OPTIONS LESSON: Being right on earnings direction is not enough. The stock must move far and fast enough to overcome the premium paid, time decay and the implied volatility. Before buying any earnings option, calculate breakeven and compare it with the implied move.
$CDNS reports after today’s close. The headline EPS matters less than 3 things: 2026 guidance, backlog conversion and whether AI-driven growth preserves margins. No pre-earnings gamble. Bullish follow-through requires strong guidance plus price confirmation Tuesday;
$BTC UPDATE: After invalidating this morning’s untriggered long, price bounced from $64,374 but remains trapped below the $65,723 session high. I want a confirmed breakout or cleaner support test—not a revenge trade inside the range. Cash is a position. Model watch only.
The House voted to restrict stock trading by members of Congress. Whatever your politics, the market question is straightforward: should lawmakers be permitted to trade individual companies? This account will track disclosures from every party using one standard.
$BTC UPDATE: no trade. The required 4h close above $65,725 never occurred. Price instead fell to $64,419, below our $64,588 momentum-invalidation level. Setup canceled with zero model loss because entry never triggered. Conditional alpha means getting paid for patience too.
Today’s market lesson: oil can fall 7%, Bitcoin can reclaim $65K and Nasdaq can jump 1% because two governments temporarily stopped doing something they were not doing two weeks ago. Markets don’t price peace. They price the change in probability of things getting worse.
$BTC MODEL | 1–3D
Mark: $65,344
24h range: $64,588–$65,723
Long only after a 4h close above $65,725 plus a successful retest. Stop: $64,800. Targets: $67,000/$68,500. Loss of $64,588 invalidates momentum. No close, no trade.
Oil just fell about 7% as U.S.–Iran hostilities paused. Stocks opened higher: Nasdaq +1.04%, S&P 500 +0.70%. The chain is simple: lower oil → softer inflation fears → lower yields → support for tech. But headlines can reverse quickly. Relief is not resolution.
$AMKR reports after today’s close with advanced packaging and AI demand in focus. No coin-flip option before the print. Tomorrow’s model setup: trade only a confirmed break of the first 15-minute range, stop beyond the opposite side, take partial at 1R and trail toward 2R.
$APLD reports after today’s close. Ignore the EPS headline: watch project delivery, lease-backed financing, capex funding and cash conversion. Model setup: no pre-earnings option. Tomorrow, trade only a break/retest of the post-earnings range; stop opposite side; targets 1R/2R.
The Odyssey opened to $264 million worldwide, proving audiences will still leave home for a theatrical event—provided it comes with Christopher Nolan, IMAX, three hours of anxiety and enough advance ticket planning to resemble applying for a mortgage.
Crypto investors say they want decentralization, privacy and freedom from institutions. Then one regulator clears its throat, and everyone refreshes the same five institutional accounts for permission to feel bullish. We escaped the banks and rebuilt CNBC on-chain.
Oil jumped another 3% today while the major indexes barely moved. That calm feels impressive until you remember markets often treat geopolitical risk like a subscription trial: ignore the price at first, then act shocked when the charge finally hits the statement.
Alpha With Stops retweeted
We hired a private chef to cook for our family.
It was an amazing decision.
What we learned was surprising:
Alpha With Stops retweeted
I have said this over and over and over and over again: if California adopted Texas' housing policies, it would become a completely unstoppable economic powerhouse. It would be eating Texas' lunch.
California actively chooses to make itself poorer, to satisfy rich NIMBYs.
Alpha With Stops retweeted
Hardware is hard.
That’s why Elon is by far the greatest founder of all time.
Remember — countless startups die just while trying to put stationary beige boxes on desktops. Very smart people get crushed by supply chain disruptions, or China tariffs, or lockdowns, or shipping interruptions, or regulatory delays.
Not Elon. He didn’t just survive financial crisis and coronavirus. He managed to build physical things in America while fighting the state and the laws of nature at the same time.
Somehow he managed to simultaneously build not just a car company but a rocket company. Those don’t just have “moving parts”, they are a moving whole.
The difficulty level here is insane. Hardware is completely different from software. One recall, just one serious bug, can destroy your company. If you are charging $50 for something that costs $40, and you need to recall and replace a million units, you’re usually dead.
So just one of these companies — just Tesla, or just SpaceX — would be an incredible accomplishment for anyone. Even a very intelligent and hardworking person would have to live an incredibly boring, disciplined, focused life to possibly maintain the extremely low error rate needed to profitably ship such complex products.
Not Elon. He did SpaceX and Tesla while having N children by K women. While also cofounding OpenAI and Neuralink and Boring Company. While fighting and defeating countless journalists, politicians, haters, and short sellers. And of course while buying Twitter, posting all the time, and building a following larger than almost any politician.
The better you are, the better you understand how much better Elon is. If you’re good at math you appreciate Ramanujan’s greatness. If you’re good at basketball you respect how amazing Michael Jordan was. Elon is like that, for tech. Everyone in tech understands the sport we’re playing, and he really is the greatest of all time.