Amy Shefrin

Here is what I see happening in terms of likelihood. I believe Netanyahu will launch a massive war in Iran in a few days while negotiations for a coalition are underway. That will lead to one of these outcomes: 1) Netanyahu runs the war as caretaker PM, no government forms, and any repeat election slips: 35% chance. A caretaker government can legally wage war, and coalition talks stall when the country is under missile fire. Netanyahu doesn’t have to win anything. He only has to keep the clock running. 2) An emergency unity government with Netanyahu “for the duration of the war”: 25% chance. The model is Gantz in 2020, who broke his “no Netanyahu” pledge and joined a COVID emergency government. Eisenkot was a war-cabinet observer in 2023 and frames everything in terms of national security. 3) It backfires, Likud drops Netanyahu, and a unity government forms without him: 15% chance. The security chiefs are already leaking that Netanyahu pushed for pre-election escalation. If a war starts and Zamir’s side leaks again, the manipulation charge becomes the story. That gives Likud MKs a reason to drop him in exchange for staying in power. 4) Netanyahu forms a right-wing government with defectors: 12% chance. War rhetoric helps him peel off one or two MKs, but the gap from 50 is still too wide. 5) An Eisenkot minority government backed by Ra’am: 10% chance. Depending on Arab parties during a war with Iran is the attack Netanyahu would most want to make. It also hardens Liberman and Bennett against the option. 6) The Haredim cross over to Eisenkot: 3% chance. Wartime pressure on the draft makes a deal on exemptions even less likely. The upshot of this is that it is about a 70% chance that Netanyahu remains in power, weakened and battered and temporary, but more dangerous than ever as a result.