(1/8) [ANALYSIS] The Crimean Logistics Strikes and the Limits of Blockade Claims. There has recently been a wave of commentary about an alleged blockade of Crimea being enforced, often using maximalist language or implying a decisive strategic impact on logistics that could eventually force Russia to abandon the peninsula or negotiate over it. This framing is giving insufficient attention to supply routes capacity, structure, and the history of Crimea’s logistics since the 2014 annexation. The point is not that Ukrainian strikes are ineffective since they clearly create disruption, congestion and shortages. However this is not the same as blockade, and route-capacity data suggests that claims of Crimea being cut off should be treated with caution. Recently released AFU footage and satellite imagery do show damaged to the bridges connecting Crimea to the mainland and strikes on trucks along the highways. Yet, these represent only part of the broader supply chain into the peninsula. Summer time amplifies the pressure. Summer is an especially favourable period to create visible disruption because tourists can increase the effective population by roughly 25%, and most visitors arrive by road: around 76% by car or bus, including about 61% via the Kerch Bridge. This means tourist traffic shares routes with goods transport, creating congestion and bottlenecks. In that sense, the summer tourist season is to Crimean logistics what winter is to Ukrainian energy infrastructure: the period when disruption is most visible and politically sensitive. A significant part of the current strain can therefore be attributed to seasonal peak demand. Read on substack: open.substack.com/pub/delwin… #UkraineRussiaWar #Strategy #Crimea