six impossible things before breakfast

London
Joined March 2011
Andrew Sabisky retweeted
NESO seem to be making the same mistake the banks made before 2008. They have solid models of gas supply, interconnector flows, frequency control, winter demand and weather variability. But each one treats the other factors as independent of the one it’s modelling. When things break, they aren’t independent. A cold, still high-pressure system over northwest Europe ramps up gas demand for heating and power, cuts the imports we rely on (because Europe has the same weather), drains storage over several days, and raises the risk of plant failures, all at once. Before 2008, banks assumed mortgage defaults were independent and packaged them accordingly. But rising rates and falling house prices hit everyone together. The correlations had been measured in benign years, when defaults really were close to independent, and assumed to hold in a crisis. They didn’t. NESO’s correlations are similarly drawn from ordinary days. To their credit, their own methodology acknowledges that LOLE can’t show whether risk is concentrated in a few severe weather years, or how deep and long shortfalls might be. The fix is a coupled Winter Stress Test: run one severe, plausible scenario through all the models together, as the Bank of England now does for the banking system. Energy policy should be set against a correlated assessment of winter reliability, not a collection of independent ones.
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one thing I had never really clocked about this photo: none of the execs are wearing ties, and nor is Xi. The zippered windbreaker is apparently known as the "Xi jacket"
BREAKING: DeepSeek just raised $15 BILLION to aggressively build data centers and open-source models >walks into investor meetings in hangzhou >"we need $7 billion" >investors start sweating
>"actually make it $11 billion" >Tencent nods immediately >"you know what, $15 billion" >CATL, a literal battery company, throws in a bag >everyone just kept nodding One of the largest funding rounds in Chinese history btw.
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on the topic of Xi's dress code, the "Mao suit" (or Zhongshan suit) has become a sort of quasi-liturgical formal wear reserved for special occasions like military parades (this at an event celebrated to mark the 100th anniversary of the CCP).
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the Mao suit also seems to get used for some foreign diplomatic trips; it was worn at the recent state dinner at the White House, and also for this 2014 dinner with the Dutch royals
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
I spent quite a lot of time in government trying to think through how to revive the Commonwealth but all of this thinking was depending on Botchwey taking a different line from Scotland on the organisation’s purpose: that it should not essentially be a biannual summit for the Caribbean to pressure Britain to pay reparations. That, as CHOGM in Antigua approaches, has not come to pass. The summit attendance is barren with none of the major middle power leaders who have no interest in such a media fracas. Seen from Delhi in particular the whole things seems eccentric and self harming. However, Britain still needs a plan. Our objective should be as follows. First, the organisation itself should be left to the Palace to steer into a kind of Royal super NGO and convening platform. But the organisation itself is so badly run and dysfunctional even this however is a challenge. It is not a British organisation of course but belongs to the member states equally. Yet if the Palace wishes to have conversation about post-colonial legacy, an NGO-like civil society gathering, not an inter-governmental summit with a communique is the appropriate venue to do good cultural work. Second, the UK should wind down political investment and encourage others to do the same. Realistically this should involve the UK delaying summits, ending funding and slowly ending Prime Ministerial attendance. Efforts should be invested instead to develop a CANZUK summit as the key summit where with those leaders we engage allies through a non-hijacked platform and secretariat. That is the kind of format, G7-like, an Indian-leader might wish to attend and where work could be achieved. The King’s desire for CHOGM to continue as before is not a good enough reason for the foreign policy damage and time wasting. Third, the brand Commonwealth should be salvaged by the UK working with India and CANZUK states to host a major investment summit open to all member states. Building something functional, in this new format without a broken secretariat in charge, will do vastly more for our reach and prestige than clinging to something that is essentially just a poorly attended summit that actually harms our reputation and post-colonial relationships by providing the premier venue for the Caribbean reparations campaign. Needless to say the King’s presence can be integrated into all this new summitry. But this, not His Majesty is the essential. In an important way, the Commonwealth’s early evolution post-war was a way for Attlee and Churchill to engage with Nehru. We need to build totally new summit with this brand around investment that can work again with India, not be hostage to what is an old, broken and counterproductive format. Investment, of course, not manufactured dead end rows are ultimately what the Global South needs too.
It is time to admit that the Commonwealth does not only not serve its purpose, but works against its premise of post-imperial comity. This is because it has become a little more than a poorly attended biannual summit whose only purpose seems to be to for Caribbean countries to lobby Britain for reparations. This does nothing but worsen these relationships. My view was Botchwey was the last chance to try and pull the organisation back from this dead end but this had clearly failed. CHOGM is going ahead without any major reforms to its structure or meaningful agenda, resented by those in government involved in it as a result. It is now only a matter of time before Prime Ministers stop attending our next King cuts the cord and eventually a new CANZUK-type summit or body is pursued.
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
It is time to admit that the Commonwealth does not only not serve its purpose, but works against its premise of post-imperial comity. This is because it has become a little more than a poorly attended biannual summit whose only purpose seems to be to for Caribbean countries to lobby Britain for reparations. This does nothing but worsen these relationships. My view was Botchwey was the last chance to try and pull the organisation back from this dead end but this had clearly failed. CHOGM is going ahead without any major reforms to its structure or meaningful agenda, resented by those in government involved in it as a result. It is now only a matter of time before Prime Ministers stop attending our next King cuts the cord and eventually a new CANZUK-type summit or body is pursued.
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
Replying to @Smyth_Chris
@Smyth_Chris, who is doing some great reporting, has interviewed the newish joint chief execs of the Office for Students, Ruth Hannant and Polly Payne. Quick thread on degree franchises, the Teaching Excellence Framework, and incoherent higher education policy.
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no democratic mandate??? He was appointed by the Prime Minister to do stuff exactly like this
Who is representing Britain abroad? In November 2025 we discovered the National Security Advisor had travelled to Beijing to meet with Wang Yi, the Chinese Communist Party’s Foreign Minister. No British Government record of this meeting was published. Instead, the CCP informs us our National Security Advisor emphasized China’s role in the world and the Labour Government’s hopes of a deeper relationship. No democratic mandate as an unelected special advisor. No transparency as only the Chinese side published a record of the meeting. No scrutiny as he refuses to appear in front of Parliamentary Committees. Perhaps we should ask the National Security Advisor’s wife to tweet a record of what was discussed?
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this anti-Powell campaign should be recognized as not much more than an attempted deep state coup against democratic policymakers and their ability to conduct foreign policy. They already had one go at trying to get rid of him when the Cash/Berry trial collapsed
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amazing scenes of @darrenpjones attempting to become The Living Constitution (sadly, with only mixed success)
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
Replying to @AndrewSabisky
To take an example at random, the 21 serves a useful un-trained corridor in SE London from Lewisham to Borough, but it then does this moronic crawl through the City. And then when it comes out in North London it pointlessly follows a railway line.
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
You see this again and again in British political life: the dream of "impartial" technocracy just leading to power vacuums and drift
Replying to @EdwardEGibbon
You have seen this time and again in English HE. Ministers handed off significant power to the OfS, which is meant to regulate universities. But the OfS avoids key questions because it identifies them as political and therefore the responsibility of ministers.
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important thread! not just for what it says about the HE problem but also the implications for wider institutional design...
Replying to @Smyth_Chris
@Smyth_Chris, who is doing some great reporting, has interviewed the newish joint chief execs of the Office for Students, Ruth Hannant and Polly Payne. Quick thread on degree franchises, the Teaching Excellence Framework, and incoherent higher education policy.
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
There is no good reason for there to be any bus services within the perimeter of the Circle Line between say 7am and 10pm.
Annual bus subsidy in London has ballooned from about £700m to £1.2bn this year and £1.7bn in 2029. Totally unsustainable, a network heading for bankruptcy. The extra 10p won't fill much of the gap because the deficit per journey is about 65p (£1.2bn against 1.8bn journeys).
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not mentioned in the article is the bit where the state raided the benevolent fund for the families of Aberfan to pay for the removal of the remaining tips. The money wasn't paid back until 2007!
I defy any parent - indeed, any sentient adult - to read @AllisonPearson's account of the Aberfan tragedy without choking up. “We gently removed the sticky black matter that clung to their hair and clothes, and washed their faces, making sure that their silky soft skin was totally clean and dry. This was important because it would enable their mums and dads to give a kiss goodbye. We lifted their limp arms in order to wash their little hands, making sure that mud was removed between each finger. It was strange to think the pen marks on their hands had been made only a couple of hours before.” telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/10…
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
London bus fares are massively subsidised by tube fares and the taxpayer. In some contexts, like buses that feed tubes or rail, this can be defended, but a large fraction of buses just duplicate rail, albeit at a cost for everyone else. One of the many drains on investment.
Annual bus subsidy in London has ballooned from about £700m to £1.2bn this year and £1.7bn in 2029. Totally unsustainable, a network heading for bankruptcy. The extra 10p won't fill much of the gap because the deficit per journey is about 65p (£1.2bn against 1.8bn journeys).
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Andrew Sabisky retweeted
Annual bus subsidy in London has ballooned from about £700m to £1.2bn this year and £1.7bn in 2029. Totally unsustainable, a network heading for bankruptcy. The extra 10p won't fill much of the gap because the deficit per journey is about 65p (£1.2bn against 1.8bn journeys).
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v good guest article on AUKUS. At the time of the announcement it seemed already v likely to me that the US and UK had written cheques to the Aussies that our industrial bases aren't good for, and nothing since then has changed my mind navylookout.com/mounting-con…
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Think it actually would be worth agreeing to pay at least some of these liabilities just to get rid of NI. It's not that much money to be rid of a fairly heavy non-financial burden
In his new book, @JohnDoyleDCU argues Britain would continue paying Northern Ireland's £5.7 billion state and unfunded public sector pension bills to a united Ireland, because not doing so would be unpopular with unions and the public in Britain.
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